Key Points
- SJ breaks down her best bets for the TNF December 3 matchup between the Green Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions
NFL week 14 is here, and we have an exciting NFC North rival matchup ahead between the Green Bay Packers (9-3, 4-1 away) and the
Detroit Lions (11-1, 5-1 home).
With the Lions leading the division at 11-1, this is a must-win for Green Bay. No. 3 in the division behind the Vikings at 9-3, both teams currently hold the top two wild card spots in the NFC. With the Commanders and Falcons knocking on the door, the pressure is on for the Packers.
(Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)
The heavy favorites to win the NFC, the Lions will continue to play their best football ahead for home-field advantage and first-round BYE in the playoffs. With another matchup at home, the Lions head into tonight as a -3.5 point spread and -178 money line favorites. 1-6 vs. the Lions over their last seven head-to-head matchups, will Green Bay upset on the road?
Tonight Headlines A Much-Anticipated NFC North Rival Matchup Between The Packers And Lions
With Jordan Love back under center, the Packers have been cruising. Winners of 8 of their last 10 matchups, Green Bay is coming off a three-game win streak. Two of which resulted in double-digit victories over the Dolphins and 49ers. While the Lions and Vikings have ironically been their only two defeats since September 22, it's safe to say tonight should present a challenge. One of the toughest divisions in the NFL, the Packers are 1-2 vs NFC North rivals.
Undefeated at 3-0 vs conference rivals, the Lions have won 10 straight, including a 23-30 gutsy victory over the Bears last week. Although the Bears overcame a 16 first-half deficit, the Lions barely survived in the fourth quarter. The inability of Caleb Williams to score at the 41 line as time expired ultimately led to the firing of head coach Matt Eberflus. With the Packers in the palms of their hands, Detroit looks to continue their hot streak.
Odds Are Current As Of December 5 AT 7 A.M. ET
As we approach the playoffs of fantasy football, the Packers and Lions matchup is the highest over/under total of any NFL matchup this week. As I make my week 14 NFL predictions for tonight, I'm expecting plenty of offense. With that said, there are key injuries on both sides, including members of the defensive/offensive line, secondary, and wide receiving core.
With the opening lines favoring the Lions at -5, we may continue to see a shift as the day goes on. Not to much surprise, the Lions have been tabbed the favorite in all games but one vs the Vikings. Fresh off a 24-14 victory over Green Bay in week 9, the Lions closed as -2.5 favorites. Tonight, I'm expecting this matchup to be much for competitive. With high stakes on the line, get your popcorn out!
In this article, I'll break down my three best bets and predictions for the Packers vs Lions showdown tonight. With an NFL betting record of 20-10, I am up over 7 units in December. Looking to stay profitable, lets crush these bets tonight! If you're tailing my picks, I've placed all of them as straight bets on FanDuel Sportsbook. Slated to air on Prime Video, kick-off is scheduled for 8:15 P.M. ET at Ford Field.
Let's quickly take a peep at the current odds and lines for the TNF December 5 matchup between the NFC rivals.
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NFL WEEK 14 BETS: Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions FanDuel Betting Odds For December 5
MONEY LINE
- GREEN BAY PACKERS: +150
- DETROIT LIONS: -178
SPREAD
- GREEN BAY PACKERS: +3.5 (-118)
- DETROIT LIONS: -3.5 (-104)
OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)
- OVER: 51.5 (-110)
- UNDER: 51.5 (-110)
Last Five H2H Matchups: Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions
- November 3, 2024: Lions 24, Packers 14 ( Detroit -2.5, under 49)
- November 23, 2023: Packers 29, Lions 22 (Green Bay +8.5, over 47)
- September 28, 2023: Lions 34, Packers 20 (Detroit -2.5, over 44.5)
- January 8, 2023: Lions 20, Packers 16 (Detroit +5, under 49)
- November 6, 2o22: Lions 15, Packers 9 (Detroit +3.5, under 49.5)
Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions Injury Report
PACKERS
- Corey Ballentine, CB: OUT
- Edgerrin Cooper, LB: OUT
- Jaire Alexander, CB: OUT
- Romeo Doubs, WR: OUT
- Marshawn Lloyd: OUT
LIONS
- Taylor Decker, OT: OUT
- Josh Paschal, DE: OUT
- Levi Onwuzurike, DE: OUT
- DJ Reader, DT: OUT
- Mekhi Wingo, DT: OUT
NFL Predictions for Thurdsay, December 5 Week 14: Packers vs Lions
NFL Spread Bet: Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions
- Packers + 3.5 (-118 FanDuel)
Green Bay Packers 2024-2025 ATS record: 6-6
Detroit Lions 2024-2025 ATS record: 9-3
My first best bet of tonight, I placed one unit on the
Green Bay Packers
to cover the +3.5 spread tonight. Yes, I know the Packers are on the road, and the Lions blew them out 24-14 a month ago. However, at 9-3, the Packers have proven they belong, and are fighting to stay in the playoff picture.
As mentioned before, injuries on both sides will affect the outcome of the game. With that said, the Packers will once again be without Jaire Alexander and wideout Romeo Doubs. Although the Lions +180 point differential to the Packers +78 speaks volumes, Green Bay has what it takes to keep up. 2-2 ATS on the road and as underdogs, we can't forget how potent the Packers offense truly is.
Jordan Love has been a heater as of late, tallying four touchdowns and 437 yards in the last two matchups vs the Dolphins and 49ers. Coming off 274 yards and a 75 completion percentage, I'll give Love the slight edge tonight.
This Is A Must Win For The Packers
This time around, Love will have some breathing room.without Aidan Hutchinson, Alex Anzalone, DJ Reader, and several other lineman. With that said, the Packers and Lions rank top 2 and 3 in the NFL in total offense.
No Doubs? No problem. With Jayden Reed leading the receiving core, Love has a number of receiving options, including the emergence of tight end Tucker Kraft. With as much talent as Love possesses, there's more than enough receiving help to get over the hump. I would like to think Christian Watson or even Dontayvion Wicks will step to the plate tonight.
With that said, I expect the Lions to put up their points, as they've done all season long. While the Lions own the Packers 5-1 over the last 6 outings, they've also had the spread advantage.
Final TNF NFL betting prediction: Packers +3.5 (-118 FanDuel)
If Green Bay can keep up offensively, Love is a quarterback who threw for 273 in the last meeting vs Detroit. While Doubs was a non-factor, Reed once again led the way with 117 yards through the air. With a balanced rushing and passing attack, it was encouraging that Green Bay scored 11 second half points. While Love's one interception was proven costly, the Packers will have to limit their turnovers tonight.
In a late season must win divisional matchup, I expect this game to be fairly tight. Covering the favorable 6 point spread vs the 49ers and 3.5 vs Miami, tonight will be a true test for Green Bay. I'm no so much convinced the Lions will cover tonight, especially after barely claiming victory over the Bears last week.
Lay the points with the Packers tonight.
NFL Player Prop Bets Tonight: Amon-Ra St. Brown
2024-2025 NFL Season Stats
GP: 12 | Receptions: 76 | Targets: 92 | Receiving Yards: 820 | Avg: 10.9 | Rec TD: 4 | Rush TD: 0 | Long Rec: 35 | First Down: 50
- Over 21.5 Longest Reception (-122 FanDuel)
My second best bet for the Packers vs Lions matchup, I placed one unit on Lions receiver
Amon-Ra St. Brown
to record over 21.5 longest reception. If you're betting on this game, the absence of Jaire Alexander will leave a huge gap in the Packers secondary. One of the most elite receivers in the NFL, St.Brown is by far Jared Goff's favorite target. Able to suit up in the wide or slot, he leads the team in targets with 92. One of my strongest bets tonight, I wouldn't be surprised if the Lions receive soared over his 69.5 yard receiving prop.
Last matchup vs the Packers in early November was a well balanced attack. Allowing Kerby Joseph and the secondary to put in some work, it was St.Brown who found the end zone, following a short pass from Goff in the second quarter. While Goff connected with eight different receivers, St.Brown managed to record 56 yards on 7 carries. But first, let's take a trip down memory lane. St. Brown split the defenders off a play-action pass for a 26 long reception.
Amon-Ra St.Brown Should Cook Up Vs An Injured Packers Secondary
If there's one aspect we know, St.Brown is deadly in the slot. With Alexander and linebacker Edgerrin Cooper out for tonight's game, the coast should be clear for St.Brown. Nearly equally lining up in the slot and the wide, the receiver lead all Detroit receivers in week 13 with a 94 % snap count.
With a longest reception of 35 yards vs the Vikings in week 6, this remains one of my favorite player props to bet on. Coming off 73 receiving yards on 7 targets, we saw the wideout torch the Bears for 29 yards on a third down conversion. Once again splitting the defenders, beating Jaylon Johnson for long certainly speaks volumes. We've seen it time and time again, and the books continue to sleep on this prop.
Hauling in over 21.5 for a longest reception in three of the last five games, we saw St.Brown sauce up the Jaguars for a 27 long bomb. And dating back to their last matchup in Green Bay, the wideout again had a long reception of 25+.
Although Khalil Raymond is now on the IR with a foot injury, it shouldn't make all that difference in the world. Expect, it truly does. With Tim Patrick arising as a viable WR3 option, St.Brown remains the trusted guy ahead of Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta. Although the Packers allow the 7th least receiving yards to wideouts per game (130.3), expect St.Brown to sizzle over this line. With a career-high 83.3 catch %, he's averaging 61.4 air yards per game. With a minimal drop rate, this is a nightmare matchup for the Packers.
Final TNF NFL betting prediction: Amon-Ra St.Brown Over 21.5 Longest Reception (-122 FanDuel)
Overall, we saw the following receivers to record longest receptions against the Packers:
- Tyreek Hill (30)
- Deebo Samuel (21)
- Rome Odunze (21)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (26)
- Brian Thomas Jr. (28)
And that's just naming a few. While I could argue Sam LaPorta can additionally haul in a longest reception, we'll stick with this strong bet. Tallying the most YAC from the right slot and left out, look for St.Brown to cook against an injured secondary. Aside from Xavier McKinney, the left side is fairly week in the linebacker and secondary core.
If we look at the history, St.Brown has historically had a field day vs the Packers. Home or away, the wideout has recorded over a 21.5 longest reception in last 5/7 head-to-head meetings. Given weather won't be a factor with the game in Detroit, I love this prediction even more. With a longest reception average of 21.7 yards over that span,
I'll take Amon-Ra St. Brown to record over 21.5 yards longest reception.
NFL Player Prop Bets Tonight: Josh Jacobs
2024-2025 NFL Season Stats
GP: 12 | Carries: 221 | Rushing Yards: 987 | Receiving Yards: 260 | Avg: 4.5 | Rush TD: 4 | Rush TD: 8 | Long Rush: 38 | First Down: 50
- Over 70.5 Rushing Yards (-113 FanDuel)
My third best bet for tonight's matchup, I placed one unit on Packers
Josh Jacobs
to record over 70.6 rushing yards for -113 odds on FanDuel. First off, the Lions defensive line is extremely banged up. Not only is Alex Anzalone placed on the IR, the Lions will be without DJ Reader and Josh Paschal tonight. In addition, the depth is real thin with the absence of Levi Onquzurike. For this reason alone, Jacobs should have plenty of Thanksgiving leftovers.
As well as Jordan Love is playing, I loved the pickup of Josh Jacobs in the backfield. Third in the NFL in rushing yards (987), Jacobs is a staple for the Packers offense. And now they get an inside matchup on the road, where cold weather won't be a factor.
One of my best bets for the Packers vs Lions matchup, there are several reasons why this is a strong pick. If you analyze the stats, you may see Jacobs only tallied 43 rushing yards in the week 13 30-17 victory vs the Dolphins. While he was more effective out of the backfield (74) yards, he should get plenty of looks on the ground tonight.
The Lions Have A Ton Of Holes On The Defensive End
Aside from last week, we've seen Jacobs record 70+ rushing yards in five straight weeks vs the 49ers, Bears, Lions, Jaguars, and Texans. Soaring over this line in all games but four, we are going full throttle with this tonight.
While Green Bay remains more of a pass heavy team (52.7 %), they still mange to run more than 47 % of their plays. And with that said, Jacobs is the true workhorse of this Packers offense. Playing a season-high 78 % of snaps last week, Emanuel Wilson suited up for just 7 %. It's safe to say there's not a threat behind Jacobs, which is a strong reason why I love this play.
Overall, the Lions are a decent defensive team, allowing the 5th least yards on the ground (93.5), and 4th in sack EPA. They even managed to hold D'Andre Swift for 39 rushing yards last week. However, with Reader and company out with injury, it leaves hole on the defensive end. Heck, even in weeks prior, we saw Jonathan Taylor, Travis Etienne Jr. and Joe Mixon held under 46 rushing yards.
While it's clear the Lions have been unforgiving to running backs, especially as of late, Jacobs is one of four backs to have success this year vs the Lions. Tallying the most yards for any back this season, we saw Jacobs explode for 95 yards. While his yards per carry wasn't as efficient, we all remember how Jacobs broke lost for a 37 yard gain.
Final TNF NFL betting prediction: Josh Jacobs Over 70.5 Rushing Yards (-113 FanDuel)
Leading all Packers running backs with 478 snaps, Jacobs has recorded 13+ carries in the last three outings. With 19 vs the Dolphins and 26 against the 49ers, I'm confident in the prop tonight. Averaging 4.5 yards per carry, look for Jacobs to carry this offensive powerhouse of a team. Offensively, the Packers rank 8th in EPA/play, and 9th in Rush EPA. Boasting the third most yards per game in the NFL, most of that is widely due to the rushing attack. Averaging 148.5 yards on the ground,
look for Josh Jacobs to record over 70.5 yards rushing tonight.
NFL Player Prop Bets Tonight: Jameson Williams
2024-2025 NFL Season Stats
GP: 10 | Receptions: 34 | Targets: 55 | Receiving Yards: 630 | Avg: 18.5 | Rec TD: 4 | Rush TD: 0 | Long Rec: 70| First Down: 24
- Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (-113 DanDuel)
My fourth best bet for the TNF game, I placed one unit on Lions receiver
Jameson Williams
to record over 48.5 receiving yards for -113 odds on FanDuel. You may be wondering why I continuously bet on Williams. After making a ton of coin, I'm riding with this prop until the wheels fall off. One of the most underrated receivers in the league, Williams is the clear no. 2 option for Jared Goff. Having missed several games due to injury, Williams remains top 30 in receiving yards among wideouts. With a career-high 18.5 YPC, I do believe this prop line may bet set too low.
With prop bet lines hovering from 43-48 yards, Williams has soared over each receiving line in 7/10 games so far this season. While Patrick has emerged as a solid third option, Williams by far leads LaPorta and other receivers with 55 targets and 34 receptions. As I've mentioned in previous articles, Williams is a speedy receiver, who is an excellent route runner.
Is Williams The Most Underrated Receiver In The NFL?
With 9.2 yards after the catch, and 71.6 air yards per game, this is an extremely strong prediction for tonight. For a player that averages 63 receiving yards per game, you may be wondering why this prop line remains low below 50. Now without Alexander, this is a Green Bay defense that allows the 7th most yards to receivers. However, can they keep up with Williams, who leads the Lions with 20.8 air yards per reception? If St. Brown is doubled, it will be tough to contain Williams.
We have to remember, the Packers have been much less efficient on the road, giving up the 7th most passing yards (243.4) through the air. Aside from an underwhelming 28 yard performance vs the Bears, he's cooked several other weeks. In fact, Williams recorded 64, 124, and 53 receiving yards as of late vs the Colts, Jaguars, and the Texans. Boasting an incredible 16.8 yards per reception over this last four games, Williams should light this up tonight.
Final TNF NFL betting prediction: Jameson Williams Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (-113 FanDuel)
Although Williams missed this rival matchup back in November, he did record 51 yards vs the Packers back in November of last year. Involved in one of the most high powered offenses in the NFL, the Lions rank 4th in EPA/play. In an expected shootout, I expect Williams to record 4+ receptions minimum. Tallying the most yards and YAC in the left wide, Williams should have no problem against Carrington Valentine. Yet to total an interception, Valentine isn't exactly known for his tackles.
While most bettors will be focused on St.Brown, we've seen
- Tyreek Hill (80)
- Rome Odunze (65)
- Brian Thomas Jr. (60)
- Jordan Whittington (89)
all record well over 50+ yards in the last few weeks.
Tonight, I'm riding with Jameson Williams Over 48.5 receiving yards.
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