Key Points
- SJ breaks down her three best bets for MNF: Miami Dolphins vs LA Rams
Monday night football is here, and we have a primetime matchup between the Miami Dolphins (2-6, 1-3 away) and the Los Angeles Rams (4-4, 3-1 home). Entering the matchup as -2.5 point spread favorites, the Rams are fresh off a three-game win streak. Now that quarterback Matt Stafford has his weapons back, the Rams will host the Dolphins at home.
(Photo by Dustin Satloff/Getty Images)
Amid the return of Tua Tagovailoa, the Dolphins sit at 2-6 on the season. Although riding a three-game losing skid, two of them have come against winning teams. With several players on the injury report, can Miami avoid a fourth straight loss?
Although the Dolphins have a -4 point differential over the last two loses, they've now lost two straight with last minute field goals. Maybe its bad luck, however both teams are trending in the opposite directions. 3-1 at home, the Rams look to chase the Cardinals for the leader of the NFC West.
Odds Are Current As Of November 11 AT 7 A.M. ET
If you're looking to bet on the MNF matchup between the Dolphins and Rams, you've come to the right place! Here at Ballislife, I have an NFL betting record of of 18-10 in the month of November. Up 8.4 units, my goal is to keep cashing out with bank roll management in mind. With that said, I placed all my bets within FanDuel Sportbook as all straight wagers.
Tonight, we get the pleasure of watching another primetime matchup between the Dolphins and Rams. With kick off set for 8:15 p.m. ET, the outing will take place at SoFi Stadium. Set to air on ESPN, let's take a look and analyze the betting odds and best bets for Monday, November 11.
Looking to tail my bets? I've provided a mix of spread predictions and player prop bets for the MNF matchup tonight.
Are you in search of further NFL and sports betting promotions? We have compiled a
list of the best sports betting offers here.
NFL WEEK 10 BETS: Miami Dolphins vs Los Angeles Rams FanDuel Betting Odds For November 11
MONEYLINE
- MIAMI DOLPHINS: +120
- LOS ANGELES RAMS: -142
SPREAD
- MIAMI DOLPHINS: +2.5 (-106)
- LOS ANGELES RAMS: -2.5 (-114)
OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)
- OVER: 43.5 (-110)
- UNDER: 43.5 (-110)
Last Four H2H Matchups: Miami Dolphins vs Los Angeles Rams
- November 1, 2020: Dolphins 28. Rams 17 (Miami +3.5, Under 45.5)
- November 20, 2016: Rams 14, Dolphins 10 (Miami +1, Under 39)
- October 14, 2012: Dolphins 17, Rams 14 (LA +5.5, Under 38.5)
- November 30, 2008: Dolphins 16, Rams 12 (LA +7, Under 44.5)
Miami Dolphins vs Los Angeles Rams Injury Report
DOLPHINS
- Tyreek Hill, WR: Questionable (Wrist)
- Jevon Holland, S: Questionable (Knee)
- Alec Ingold, FB: Questionable (Calf)
- River Cracraft, WR: IR (Shoulder)
- Austin Jackson, G: OUT (Knee)
RAMS
- Christian Rozeboom, LB: Questionable (Neck)
- Kamren Curl, S: Questionable (Knee)
- Neville Gallimore, DT: OUT
- Kevin Dotson, G: Questionable (Shoulder)
- Jonah Jackson, G: IR (Knee)
NFL Predictions for Monday, November 11 Week 10
NFL Player Prop Bets Tonight: Kyren WIlliams
2024-2025 NFL Season Stats
GP: 8 | Carries: 161 | Rushing Yards: 602 | Receiving Yards: 116 | Targets: 25 | Avg. Rushing: 3.7 | Rush TD: 8 | Rec TD: 2 | Long Rush: 30| First Down: 43
- Under 83.5 rushing yards (-113 FanDuel)
- Any Time Touchdown Scorer (-220 FanDuel)
My first best bet for the MNF matchup tonight may confuse you a bit! I placed on unit separately on Rams running back
Kyren Williams
to total under 83.5 rushing yards and to score a touchdown. Do you want the good or bad news first?-The Rams are so back, and so are Matt Stafford top wideouts, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. This time, they get a Dolphins defense that's been fairly decent against the rush. Therefore, I'm going with my gut and going to trust Stafford to air the ball out more tonight.
Overall, Williams has been a scoring machine for the Rams, finding the end zone 10 times year this in eight games. However, with 602 rushing yards on the season, we've seen Williams efficiency drop, especially since the 2023 season. William's 3.7 yards per carry remains one of the lowest in the NFL. How can a back who's third in rushing touchdowns be so efficient in running the ball?
Yet to see a 40+ yard rush this season, teams aren't exactly afraid of playing against Williams. With such a low carry efficiency rate, this is not comparable to the likes of Derrick Henry (6.1) and some of the most elite backs in the NFL. We can't exactly blame his poor performance on the offensive line that was upgraded in the offseason.
Having drafted rookie back Blake Corum in 3rd round of the 2024 draft, why wouldn't Sean McVay utilize him alongside Williams?
Kyren Williams 3.7 Yards Per Carry Ranks One Of The Lowest Among NFL Running Backs
Sure, we've seen Williams have some decent total yardage throughout the season. However, the clear cut number one back on the Rams, his rushing attempts remain fourth best in the NFL. Lacking the size and explosiveness of other backs, it took Williams 24 carries to total 89 rushing yards vs the 49ers in week 3.
In his worst outing since week 2, Williams was bottled up for 69 yards for 22 carries vs the Seahawks in overtime last Sunday. For a running back that's in fairly decent offense, Williams played a career-high 99 % of snaps last week. In fact, he leads the NFL with a 88.1 snap percentage.
If you look at the 83.5 rushing yards, that prop line may be deceiving. Clocking this in four of eight games this season, we've seen Williams plow through for 97 yards vs the Vikings, and 102 against Green Bay. He now gets a tough matchup with the Dolphins, who allow only 120 yards on the ground, and 110 over the last three games.
One aspect about this Dolphins team, their defense has vastly improved since the beginning of the season. In weeks 1-7 we saw Zach Charnonnet (91), Tony Pollard (88) and Rhamondre Stevenson (89) all torch Miami for over 83.5 yards. However, top backs James and James Connor were limited to 44 and 53 yards on the ground in weeks 8-9.
With Williams rushing for under this prop line in two of three games, I'm going with the under once again. Failing to rush for over 83.5 yards in 2 of 8 primetime games, Miami has a decent defensive line. This player prop line is simply too high tonight.
Given the Rams are much more a pass heavy team, the Dolphins bottle up opponents for 4.4 rushing yards per carry. Allowing only 27 rushing attempts per game, take the under on Williams rushing yards.
Final NFL betting prediction: Kyren Williams Under 83.5 Rushing Yards (-113 FanDuel) + Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-220 FanDuel)
On the bright side, I bet on Kyren Williams to score a touchdown tonight vs the Dolphins. One of my best bets and predictions for week 10, Williams is a scoring machine. Finding the end zone in two consecutive games vs the Lions and Vikings, Sean McVay will once again look for Williams to power them in the red zone.
Giving up the 6th most rushing touchdowns in the NFL (1.3 per game), Williams has scored 6 in every matchup but week 9 vs Seattle. Allowing 10 rushing touchdowns this season, we've seen various backs have success finding the end zone multiple times vs Miami this year. Getting 91.3 percent of rushing touchdowns inside the 20, look for Williams to score one, if not possible two touchdowns tonight.
NFL Player Prop Bets Tonight: Matt Stafford
2024-2025 NFL Season Stats
GP: 8 | CMP: 182 | ATT: 276 | CMP %: 65.9 | Passing Yards: 1,969 | Avg.: 7.1 | Passing TD: 9| INT: 6
- Over 22.5 Pass Completions (-120 FanDuel)
My second prediction and best bet for Monday night, I placed one unit on Rams quarterback Matt Stafford to record over 22.5 pass completions vs the Dolphins.
Luckily for Stafford, Puka Nacua has not been handed a suspension just yet after throwing a punch at the Seahawks in week 9. Both dealing with injuries, Nacua will lineup alongside pro bowler Cooper Kupp. Given I bet on Williams under rushing yards, I do expect Stafford to air the ball out quite a bit tonight.
Back looking like the Matt Stafford we know, he's been balling out the last few weeks. Just shy of 300 yards, Stafford tallied 298 and 279 passing yards vs the Seahawks and Vikings over the last two weeks. With completion percentages higher than ever, Stafford tallied a season high 73.5 percent completion rate vs the Vikings.
Not only does the Rams quarterback have his top two players back, Demarcus Robinson has emerged as a viable third option. Although lacking a true tight end threat with Colby Parkinson, there's reason's to believe Stafford should easily tally over 22.5 passing completions.
Matt Stafford's Weapons Are Healthy And Fully Back
I mean, how can we forget Stafford's 39 yard one handed bomb to Demarcus Robinson to secure the overtime victory last week? There's clear cut chemistry between Stafford and his receivers, and this is a LA team that throws on nearly 60 % of plays. Although Stafford isn't near the top of the list with 182 completions, we have to remember he was without weapons for a number of weeks.
Here's some Matt Stafford primetime stats for you. Clearing this prop line in four straight games, Stafford hasn't hit under 22.5 completions in 8 of the last 10 primetime games dating back to 2021.
Final NFL betting prediction: Matt Stafford Over 22.5 Pass Completions (-120 FanDuel)
While this best bet hit the over in four of eight games this season, his attempts have steadily increased with Kupp and Nacuca back in the lineup. Coming off 44 attempts in week 9, Stafford faces a Dolphins team, who allow the least passing completions in the NFL (142).
The question remains, can the Dolphins guard a potent offensive that loves to spread the ball out under Stafford. Ranking 24 against the pass, we witnessed:
- Josh Allen (25)
- Kyler Murray (26)
both hit the over in completions. Trending in the wrong direction, the Dolphins allowed those two quarterbacks to beam it up through the air. I would imagine this prop line will increase as the day goes on. One of my best bets of tonight, bet on Matt Stafford to complete over 22.5 passes tonight.
NFL Spread Bet: Miami Dolphins vs Los Angeles Rams
- Los Angeles Rams -2.5 (-114 FanDuel)
My third best bet of the night, I placed one unit on the Los Angeles Rams to cover -2.5 favorable spread at home vs the Dolphins. Historically, the Dolphins have owned the Rams, going 4-0 against them since the 2008 season. With the spread split 2-2, both teams are newly revamped since they last met in 2020.
Losing 4 of their first 5 games, the Rams looked doomed. With injuries piling up, LA is back on track. As mentioned before, both teams are trending in opposite directions. Winners of three straight vs the Raiders, Vikings, and Seahawks, the Rams will look to keep the hot streak going tonight.
With a 2-6 record on the season, it's been at tumultuous season for the Dolphins. Even with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa back from concussion protocol, the Dolphins defense has been absolutely atrocious. Can I really back the Dolphins, who've lost two straight games to last second field goals? While the Cardinals and Bills are among the top teams in the NFL, Kyler Murray erupted for 307 yards, in which Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr. combined for 235 receiving yards. Blowing a 10-0 first quarter lead, the Dolphins allowed nearly 400 yards of total offense. While the Cardinals have a potent offense, their matchup with the Rams won't get any easier.
With 21 unanswered second half points vs Arizona, the parade continued to Josh Allen and the Bills. With 235 passing yards divided up amongst 8 receivers, the Dolphins secondary has consistently been getting torched. And for a second straight week, Miami has completely collapsed in the second half. Speaking of secondary, it will be even more thin if Jevon Holland is unable to suit up.
When it comes to my best spread bet, the Dolphins are undoubtedly a more efficient team with Tagovailoa under center. However, with Tyreek Hill listed as a game-time-decision, he's in fear of missing tonight's matchup. In that case, Tagovailoa will lose his fastest, and favorite target. Given the Dolphins had one of their most solid outings vs the Bills last week, there's no doubt they can hang with the Rams tonight. However, the Rams interior offensive line is back and healthy with Jonah Jackson and Steve Avila. Combine that with all of the receivers available for tonight's game.
Final NFL betting prediction: Rams -2.5 (-114 FanDuel)
Overall, the Rams aren't anything to gloat about defensively. 24 and 23 vs the rush and pass, we've seen the Rams
If you're tailing my best bets for MNF, I simply cannot back the Dolphins, who are 2-6 ATS. Covering the +6 underdog spread vs the Bills in week 9 was impressive. However, Miami is 1-4 ATS as underdogs this year. Now with a tough matchup on the road, the health of Tyreek Hill can certainly determine the outcome of this matchup.
Given Stafford has taken just one sack in the last three games, he should have a ton of success vs the Dolphins who has the third worst sack percentage (4.2 %). A Miami team that's allowing 23.4 points per game, their offensive isn't a question. With two offensive juggernauts, I'll back a Rams defense that's improved drastically over the last few weeks.
I'll lay the points with the Rams tonight, and I'll take McVay Over Mike McDaniels any day. 2-0 ATS since week 8, the Rams are slightly disrespected with this line. One of the most underrated quarterbacks in NFL history, Stafford has thrown for six touchdowns and 577 yards over the last two outings. It's impossible to fade a team that's as hot as the Rams.
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