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NFL Prop Bets: Who Will Score an Anytime Touchdown on Sunday, September 22?

Publish Date: 09/21/2024
Fact checked by: Allan Howe

We're getting set for an exciting Week 3 in the NFL as several teams around the league search for much-needed wins while others look to put their hot starts to the ultimate test.

I'm going to take a look at two games which should feature some excellent value in the touchdown scorer market, and in one of the day's first games I think we'll see one overlooked quarterback record a rushing score for a second straight game.

(Photo by Perry Knotts/Getty Images)

Let's get into the best Anytime TD bets in the NFL on September 22.

NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prediction for Week 3: Rashid Shaheed

Best Rashid Shaheed Anytime TD Odds: +185 (FanDuel)

This Saints offense appears to be very real, sitting atop the league in all sorts of categories like EPA per play, success rate and expected points added per play, and against an Eagles defense that's looked suspect against the Packers and Falcons thus far I think the ball should continue to move downfield for New Orleans.

That leads me to Rashid Shaheed, who has been a focal point of this team's aerial attack and has garnered nine targets through two weeks despite seeing around two thirds of the snaps.

  • Shaheed has been one of the best in the league at creating separation, doing so on six of his nine opportunities according to Pro Football Focus, and should have a good chance to exploit a friendly matchup with Avante Maddox on Sunday.

Maddox should work as Philly's slot corner this year and has graded out terribly in this spot so far this season according to PFF. He was already a below-average corner coming into this season and has seemed to lose a step at 28, ranking fourth-worst in explosive play rate at PFF.

Shaheed is the definition of a big-play threat, ranking just outside the top 10 of all receivers in average depth of target, and should sneak behind Maddox and a slumping Eagles secondary for yet another score.

 

NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prediction for Week 3: Dallas Goedert

Best Dallas Goedert Anytime TD Odds: +300 (Caesars)

Sticking in the same game, I want to back a player on the other side of the matchup and go with Dallas Goedert to find paydirt for the first time this season.

  • Goedert continues to be heavily involved for the Eagles, playing 97% of the snaps in last week's loss to Atlanta, and with seven catches on nine targets can't be said to struggling like many of his teammates this year.

The big tight end was able to haul in 60% of his targets in the red zone last year, and he should be the first option for Jalen Hurts down there this week with A.J. Brown expected to be held out once again with an injury.

  • New Orleans allowed one red zone target to a tight end last week against the Cowboys in three possessions, but we may have seen more if not for a couple of sacks against Dak Prescott.

Passing was clearly the best way to attack the Saints in the red zone as this line was brilliant against the run down near their own end zone, and if Philly takes that approach we'll see the ball go to Goedert. He's been incredibly productive this year despite not scoring a touchdown and he's one of the best values on the board.

 

NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prediction for Week 3: Baker Mayfield

Best Baker Mayfield Anytime TD Odds: +550 (Caesars)

Finally, we'll continue on with our tradition of taking a quarterback to score with his legs, and while there are several options I like around the league from Josh Allen to Jalen Hurts, we'll have be creative if we want to find the quarterback who's able to score with the longest odds on the board.

Mayfield seems to fit the bill here. He carried the ball in from 11 yards out last week against the Lions and has quickly established the Buccaneers as a feared offense this season which has moved the ball downfield quickly and scored 57 points through two games.

  • The red zone carry last week may have been Mayfield's first of the season, but last year he had the ninth-most attempts inside the 20 with 13 carries and one touchdown.
  • The Broncos allowed the Steelers to reach the red zone just two times last week, but allowed them to score on one of those trips, and the week prior we saw the Seahawks get inside the 20 just one time. That leads me to believe their red zone stats are misleading and mainly smoke.

This is going to be a much tougher matchup after losing to two poor offenses in low-scoring games considering the way the Buccaneers are succeeding with the ball in their hands.

The Broncos' defensive line ranks 24th thus far according to PFF, struggling mightily against the run, so why not back the legs of Mayfield?

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