NFL Prop Bets: Who Will Score a Touchdown on Sunday, September 29?

Welcome to Week 4 of the NFL season! We've certainly seen some surprising storylines unfold through the first month of the year, and there will be plenty of teams and players entering the week looking to make a statement.

On Sunday, I'll be backing one of those guys looking to re-write his narrative in Anthony Richardson. The second-year quarterback will square off against a vaunted Pittsburgh Steelers defense at home, and I expect a big performance as he looks to use his legs a bit more. I'm also going to continue buying into two offensive centerpieces who should continue to solidify their value.

(Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images)

Without further ado, let's get into the best Anytime TD bets in the NFL on September 29.

NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prediction for Week 4: Anthony Richardson

Best Anthony Richardson Anytime TD Odds: +145 (Caesars)

Injuries robbed us of watching Richardson play out the bulk of his rookie year in 2023, but what we saw was mighty impressive. In four games, the first-round draft pick dazzled on the ground with four touchdowns on 5.44 yards per carry, doing a good enough job with his arm to boot.

• Richardson's continued running the ball with success, though he's now failed to reach the end zone in his last two games and has really taken a step back with his arm, throwing three touchdowns to six picks after turning it over just one time through the air last season.

The dynamic young prospect will have a brutal matchup with a Steelers defense that has exceled in getting to the quarterback, grading out as one of the top cover units in football to make matters worse, and Richardson should have no choice but to run in this one, using his legs as he evades the rush.

• While the Steelers have contained opposing quarterbacks on the ground through three weeks, they really only faced a dual-threat signalcaller in Week 2 and yielded 25 yards on the ground on four carries by Will Levis.

It's early, and the numbers may be a little deceiving here. Richardson should lean on his legs all afternoon, and if he's able to move the ball inside the 20 with some help from his talented skill position players, he should look for paydirt given he ranks sixth in the league with six red-zone carries, rushing for 41 yards and a score on those attempts.

NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prediction for Week 4: Diontae Johnson

Best Diontae Johnson Anytime TD Odds: +160 (FanDuel)

I noted above that it's indeed early in the year, but Diontae Johnson's early numbers are anything but a fluke.

• Carolina's go-to wideout was a threat for years around the goal line in Pittsburgh, ranking 14th among all wide receivers with 16 red-zone targets in his final year there in 2022.
• This season, he's leading all wideouts with seven red-zone targets, getting four balls thrown his way inside the 20 last week.

With 26 targets through three weeks, it's evident that the gameplan for the Panthers will involve plenty of Johnson, and he'll have a great chance at succeeding against a Cincinnati Bengals team ranked 17th in pass coverage according to Pro Football Focus.

• Cincinnati has allowed a touchdown on a poor 55.56% of its opponents' red zone chances, failing to keep the Washington Commanders out of the end zone on all of their red zone chances a week ago.

The Panthers may not be the most exciting team to bet on, but I think the price is right here on Johnson. He was targeted four times in the red zone last week but failed to score, and I'll bet on his luck turning around here.

NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prediction for Week 4: Brock Purdy

Best Brock Purdy Anytime TD Odds: +500 (Caesars)

Finally, let's look at another quarterback who's quietly impressed with his legs and will come into Sunday with excellent odds to score a touchdown.

Brock Purdy isn't the guy you think of when it comes to obvious dual-threat quarterbacks, but the San Francisco 49ers clearly changed up their gameplan a bit in Week 3 coming off a loss to the Minnesota Vikings.

• After rushing just three times through two gams, Purdy carried the ball 10 times for 41 yards last week and has now gone for 4.92 yards per carry on the ground in all.
• He's now crucially taken matters into his own hands with three rushes for 10 yards inside the 20 this year, and he'll draw an excellent matchup with the Patriots, who have allowed 12 rushes to opposing quarterbacks through three games for 41 yards.

Even Aaron Rodgers carried the ball three times against New England, which flaunts a solid pass rush around middling numbers against the run, and as he rolls out of the pocket I expect Purdy to take the opportunity to keep running and find a score in the red zone.

New England, like Cincinnati, has allowed a touchdown on 55.56% of its opponents' red zone trips and allowed one on 75% of red zone possessions last week.

Purdy's newfound love for running the ball leads me to believe this is an unfair number, even if he scored just two rushing touchdowns a year ago.