The New York Jets and Minnesota Vikings will get our Sunday started early, playing one of the most anticipated games of the week across the pond in London.
Minnesota will carry an unblemished 4-0 record into this one, led by an incredible showing on defense and an inspired start to the season by former Jets first-round pick Sam Darnold. New York, meanwhile, is looking to get back over .500 after losing a low-scoring game at home in the rain to Denver last week which it could have won on a walk-off field goal.
(Photo by Perry Knotts/Getty Images)
With so much to play for here, there should be a number of players on both sides of the ball ready to put their stamp on this one and solidify their seasons with another big performance.
Let's look at a few of them below and get straight into the best prop bets to make for Jets vs Vikings in London this Week 5.
AARON JONES OVER 63.5 RUSHING YARDS (-120)
Let's kick things off here by attacking the most obvious weakness in this game which is the Jets rushing defense.
- New York currently sits just 21st in EPA allowed per rush and 23rd in success rate on the ground, leaning on some excellent work in the secondary to pick up its two wins.
- Aside from the lowly Patriots, three of the Jets' four opponents have seen their starting back go for 62 or more yards on the ground this season, with Jordan Mason hitting 147 yards in Week 1.
The number here's just a tick over that baseline, but I feel entirely confident in Jones here after he played 82% of the team's snaps in Week 4. Tony Pollard failed to get over 63 yards in Week 2 on account of his effectiveness in the passing game and the largeΒ ineffectiveness
of his offense, one which has been mixing in Tyjae Spears more this season.
Jones should have nobody behind him threatening to take carries away against this brutal run defense, and on top of that the Jets rank ninth against running backs in the passing game according to FTN, leading me to believe Jones' combined rushing and receiving total isn't the way to go here.
He should get plenty of work done with his legs here and go over 63 yards for the fourth time in five games.
MIKE WILLIAMS OVER 30.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-119)
Best Odds: Caesars
This is the most exciting prop on the board to me, and it could be the most exciting of the week.
I don't ordinarily get into some of the very obscure stats we have available to us these days, but it's hard to look past the fact that the Vikings rank last in the league with 8.3 pass attempts and 94.3 yards allowed per game to opposing receivers who sit second on the depth chart.
- It's something that's pretty believable, considering Stephon Gilmore has done a brilliant job this season and has been one of the driving forces behind this incredible pass defense, but opposite him Shaquill Griffin grades out 74th of 94 corners in coverage according to Pro Football Focus.
- We saw Dontayvion Wicks, the Packers' WR2, go for 78 yards on five grabs last week after Stefon Diggs recorded 94 yards on 10 catches in Week 3.
If we're to back these trends continuing, this should be an easy number for Mike Williams to hit.
New York's big offseason addition on offense has been growing in importance as the weeks have gone on, being eased into action early in the season after a major injury in 2023. He played 58% of the snaps last week against Denver, leading the team with 67 receiving yards on four grabs.
It marked the second straight week that Williams was targeted four or more times, and as a man who's frequently been thrown to deep downfield with 12 yards per target this year, it may not take many catches for New York's WR2 to cash this bet.
Given the increasing workload of Williams, and the sheer volume of passes going to the wideouts avoiding a matchup with Gilmore, th 30-year-old should be a slam dunk in this matchup.
TYLER CONKLIN OVER 23.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-120)
Best Odds: BetMGM
To close things out, we'll back a man who's seemed to be even more integral to the Jets' passing game in recent weeks in tight end Tyler Conklin.
- This position is yet another where the Vikings' excellent pass defense has looked mortal, ranking 14th in DVOA against tight ends with Tucker Kraft hauling in six of nine targets last week for 53 yards and a touchdown.
I do like Conklin to score a touchdown in this one at far juicier odds, but this number seems even more attainable with the Vikings ranking third-worst with 8.6 targets allowed per game to opposing tight ends and ninth-worst with 48.6 yards on average.
Conklin, as mentioned, has quickly become a favorite target of Aaron Rodgers with 14 targets over the last two games, and four catches in each of them. While I'd simply love to take the easy road here and back him to go over 2.5 catches, we've been priced out of that market -- and four catches could be a riskier proposition.
Denver's defense has been far better against tight ends, and in a rainy game with short passes it's no surprise he managed just 17 yards on his four catches last week. He went for 93 yards on five grabs against the Patriots in Week 3, and I think we'll see a performance a bit closer to that.
This is a man who had a robust 7.7 average depth of target last season and has moved out to 8.2 this season, adding a nice 5.4 yards after the catch on average. At such a discount, it's hard to pass on Conklin here.
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