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Best Same Game Parlay Tonight: SGP Picks for Buccaneers vs Chiefs on Monday Night Football (Nov 4)

Publish Date: 11/04/2024
Fact checked by: Allan Howe

The Kansas City Chiefs' season certainly hasn't gone to perfection, yet despite several obstacles they'll carry an unbeaten record into a home game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday Night Football this week.

(Photo by Candice Ward/Getty Images)

Tampa Bay has shown some promise this season, particularly on the road where it's gone 2-1, but things have taken a turn in the wrong direction with an injury to Chris Godwin leading to two straight losses.

Let's take a look at the man who's prospered in Godwin's absence, along with a few others who should shine under the lights as we build a same-game parlay for Buccaneers vs Chiefs on Monday Night Football this week.

Best Same Game Parlay for Buccaneers vs Chiefs on Monday Night Football

Odds: +579 at FanDuel

  • Cade Otton 6+ Receptions
  • Travis Kelce Over 5.5 Receptions
  • Patrick Mahomes Over 18.5 Rushing Yards

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Cade Otton 6+ Receptions

Without Godwin and Mike Evans, who was also lost to injury a few weeks back, Cade Otton has become the new go-to man in the passing game for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

  • Otton has now been targeted 10 times in consecutive games, racking up a whopping 181 yards on 17 grabs with a pair of touchdowns to establish himself as the most trustworthy pass-catcher on the Buccaneers sideline.

Kansas City has played excellent defense overall this season, but it's ranked just 13th in coverage according to Pro Football Focus and should afford Otton the opportunity to once again get himself open for quarterback Baker Mayfield.

While they've graded out around the league average against opposing tight ends, Chiefs have allowed a league-high 8.1 targets per game to the position. They should continue look perplexed against Tampa Bay, considering Joshua Williams has really struggled in coverage this season and should be tasked with guarding Otton out wide -- something we've seen a lot in recent weeks.

Any way you slice it, the matchup is great and the target share has been steady.

Travis Kelce Over 5.5 Receptions

We'll jump from one tight end to another and add Travis Kelce to our same-game parlay on Monday night.

This one's a bit tricky, considering the Buccaneers haven't allowed quite as many targets per game to tight ends as the Chiefs, but we can take solace in the fact that they rank a dreadful 29th in DVOA against the position.

  • I'm a bit hesitant to back the trends here and play the over on Kelce's yards, with the number quite high and the profile for Kelce not quite fitting.
  • The future Hall of Famer has been more of a possession receiver this season, going for a career-low 8.8 yards per catch, but he's still managed to integrate himself into the offense in recent weeks with seven or more catches in three of his last four.

The Buccaneers have allowed seven or more catches to tight ends in three of their last five, and with Kansas City down one of its three men at this spot the targets should once again flow to Kelce -- coming off a 10-catch showing against the Raiders.


Patrick Mahomes Over 18.5 Rushing Yards

Finally, we'll have some fun here and play the over on Patrick Mahomes' rushing yards.

Mahomes has rushed for 17 or more yards in five of his last six games, and while that may have you snapping your fingers I'll be quick to remind you that with an unblemished record, Mahomes has been taking plenty of knees.

So, it should be said that the veteran quarterback has been moving well with the ball in his hands when he's decided to use his legs to pick up yardage. That's something I'm expecting in this one, with Tampa Bay allowing 20 or more rushing yards in five of its eight gams this season.

The games we didn't see a 20-yard performance? Both losses to the Falcons, and the win over Detroit We know Jared Goff refuses to run, and Kirk Cousins has done far less running this year as well, so there's little to bat an eye at. The trends should be in our favor.

If you want to know what's fresh, go no further than our Betting News Section.

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