
The Los Angeles Chargers are stuck in no man's land at 3-2, but can begin to look like a playoff team by taking care of business against the 2-4 Arizona Cardinals on the road Monday.
(Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images)
Justin Herbert should find himself in a good spot against a soft Cardinals secondary, and while that should mean one of his emerging wideouts will rack up some yards the gunslinger may not have an unblemished night. I've also got an eye on rookie Marvin Harrison, Jr. in his first primetime game.
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While Herbert may be up against one of the very worst coverage teams in football and could find himself in a favorable spot Monday, I don't expect things to go off without a hitch.
That's because the Cardinals have now intercepted a pass in each of their last four games -- coming against four solid quarterbacks.
One of the most under-appreciated figures at our disposal over at Pro Football Focus is "Turnover-Worthy Plays," where the good folks over there notate every throw from a quarterback which should have gone for an interception. Herbert has already made four of these throws, tied for seventh in the league, yet he's been picked off just once.
The Cardinals may not be allowing many pass plays, and the Chargers may prefer to run the ball, but with Arizona's strongest defenders like Budda Baker all lined up on the left side of the field -- where Herbert will be forced to focus considering the lack of depth at skill positions -- I think there will be enough passing to see Herbert finally throw another pick.
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The name of the game here for the Chargers, as you may have gathered, is conservative play. That means plenty of quick, short throws from Herbert -- and rookie Ladd McConkey has ben the man to make the veteran signalcaller's life a bit easier this year.
McConkey would still finish the game with four catches on eight targets for 43 yards, and even though he's more of a possession receiver who's cracked this number once all year I'm still a fan of his yardage prop over his total receptions.
The Cardinals rank third-worst in the league with 65.2 yards per game allowed to the WR3 position, and dead last in overall DVOA to the position, leading me to believe the talented McConkey should do plenty of damage once he has the ball in his hands.
We'll wrap up here by backing tantalizing rookie Marvin Harrison, Jr. who's set to make his return from the concussion he suffered last week.
The speedster, like his fellow rookie McConkey, will step into a great matchup considering the Chargers rank dead last in DVOA to opposing WR2s. They haven't exactly done so in a large sample, but Harrison will draw a struggling Derwin James on his side of the field and avoid lockdown corner Kristian Fulton.
Harrison is receiving more than enough volume to hit this number regularly, and while he's only done so twice he's played just four full games since his shaky NFL debut.
The game script should call for plenty of passing with Arizona expected to fall behind early, and the Ohio State product should feast as a result.
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