Key Points
- SJ breaks down her +420 Same Game Parlay for the Commanders vs Eagles Thursday Night Matchup
Thursday night football is here, and we have a monumental NFC East Division matchup between the Washington Commanders (7-3, 3-2 away) and the Philadelphia Eagles (7-2, 3-1 home). 3.5 point favorites at home, the Eagles will host possibly the biggest rival matchup with Washington in nearly 30 years. With a 7-3 record, the Commanders have the best record in over 20 years, and now they have their toughest matchup on the road.
(Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)
Two of the top offensive teams in the NFL, can the Commanders upset the Eagles in Philadelphia? In this article, I will share my same-game parlay picks for the Commanders vs Eagles matchup tonight. Two of the most mobile quarterbacks, who will have the most production, Jayden Daniels or Jalen Hurts?
Cruising to a five game win streak, the Eagles remain atop of the NFC East with a 7-2 record. Dominating the Cowboys by 28 points, they now have a favorable matchup, where they are 3-1 at the Linc. Let's analyze and break down my best +420 SGP picks for Thursday, November 14.
Odds: +420 at
FanDuel Sportsbook
- Saquon Barkley ATS
- Philadelphia Eagles -3.5
- DeVonta Smith 50+ Receiving Yards
- DeVonta Smith O 22.5 Longest Reception
Are you in search of further NFL and sports betting promotions? We have compiled a list of the best sports betting offers here.
NFL WEEK 11 BETS: Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles FanDuel Betting Odds For November 14
MONEYLINE
- WASHINGTON COMMANDERS :+168
- PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: -200
SPREAD
- WASHINGTON COMMANDERS: +3.5
- PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: -3.5
OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)
- OVER: 48.5 (-110)
- UNDER: 48.5 (-110)
Last Three H2H Matchups: Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles
- October 29, 2023: Eagles 38, Commanders 31 (Push 7.0, Over 41.5)
- October 1, 2023: Eagles 34, Commanders 31 (OT) (Washington +10, Over 42.5)
- November 14, 2022: Eagles 32, Commanders 21 (Washington +11, Over 43.5)
For a deep dive into NBA predictions, hit up our
NBA betting section—all the details you need before tip-off!
Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles Injury Report
COMMANDERS
- Nick Bellore, LB: OUT (Knee)
- Marshon Lattimore, CB: OUT (Hamstring)
- Austin Seibert, PK: OUT
- Jamison Crowder, WR: IR (Calf)
- Cornelius Lucas, OT, QUESTIONABLE
EAGLES
- Byron Young, DT: IR (Hamstring)
- Britain Covey, WR: IR (Shoulder)
- James Bradberry, CB: IR (Lower Leg)
- Le'Raven Clark, OT: IR
NFL Same Game Parlay Best Predictions for Thursday, November 14 Week 11
Saquon Barkley Anytime Touchdown Scorer
2024-2025 NFL Season Stats
GP: 9 | Carries: 171 | Rushing Yards: 991 | Receiving Yards: 158 | Targets: 26 | Avg. Rushing: 5.8 | Rush TD: 6 | Rec TD: 2 | Long Rush: 65| First Down: 39
My first leg of my same game parlay, I bet on Eagles running back Saquon Barkley to score a touchdown vs the Commanders. Signing with the Eagles in free agency, he's been everything Nick Sirianni has dreamt of and them some. Playing all nine games, Barkely is top five in scoring, behind Derrick Henry, James Cook, David Montgomery, Kyren Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Joe Mixon. The only other player on the Eagles to have more rushing touchdowns is quarterback Jalen Hurts (10).
Given the Eagles are second in the NFL in rushing touchdowns (16), it's mainly been Hurts and Saquon who've found success in finding the goal line. Although it's been Hurts and the tush push of brotherly love as of late, I'm betting on Barkley this time to cross the plane. While the Commanders have vastly improved on the defensive side of things, stopping the run hasn't been their strong suite.
This Prop Is An Extremely Strong Parlay Play
Giving up 142.7 rushing yards on the ground, every running back through week 10 has found the end zone, except the Buccaneers and Browns. With Daniel Jones the only quarterback to rush for six this season, I'll run with Barkley tonight.
A strong pick for my same game parlay, it's been Hurts who's scored a touchdown in four straight games, and eight over that time period. However, with 8 total touchdowns on the season, it was not long ago we saw Barkley walk in for two tuddies vs the Jaguars. Although logging 66 yards on the ground, it was Barkley who could an efficient 12 yard pass in the backfield that brought he Eagles all the way down to the one yard line vs the Eagles. Although unsuccessful at the goal line, he gets a prime matchup tonight.
Historically, we know how well Barkley has performed against Washington with his time as a New York Giant. In fact, the back has found his way into the end zone in four straight head-to-head outings, including two touchdowns in November, 2023.
Final Same Game Parley NFL betting prediction: Saquon Barkley AnyTime Scorer
If you're tailing my NFL same game parlay for the Commanders vs Eagles matchup, go with Saquon Barkley, who's scored three touchdowns in the last four games. In that span, the Eagles star as been elite, tallying over 100+ rushing yards in 3/4 matchups. Averaging 127.25 yards on the ground over the span, I truly can't think of a better prop for this parlay. Given Saquon is the true workhorse in the back, he's edged out Hurts with 31 rushing attempts inside the 20. Given the Commanders allow one rushing touchdown per game, they allow opponents to score 70 % in the red zone.
That's a fairly high conversion rate for opponents, nearly 69 % of rushing attempts inside the 20 have come from Barkley. With a career-best 5.8 yards per carry, except Barkley to cross the goal line tonight. Although the Commanders have a somewhat weak defensive line, the Eagles have one of the most premier offensive lines in the NFL. The Commanders have allowed touchdowns to eight different running backs this season. With a 60 % red zone percentage rate, the Eagles are third in the NFL in touchdowns per game (3.1). Leading the NFL with 127 red zone rushing yards, Barkley has the third most touches inside the 20.
DeVonta Smith 50+ Receiving Yards + Over 22.5 Longest Reception
2024-2025 NFL Season Stats
GP: 8 | Receptions: 37 | Targets: 50 | Receiving Yards: 487 | Avg: 13.2| Rec TD: 6 | Rec TD: 4 | Longest Reception: 46| First Down: 23
My second leg of my same game parlay, I bet on Eagles receiver DeVonta Smith to record 50+ receiving yards and over 22.5 longest reception. Normally, I don't usually double up on players. However, even with the return of receiver AJ Brown from injury, this is a strong player for tonight.
Overall, we know the Commanders don't give up a ton of yards though the air, allowing the fifth least in the NFL (182.2). Able to line up in the slot or wide, Smith has the speed and hands to beat any defender one on one. If you're wondering why I chose to bet on 50+ the prop line went up to 53.5 receiving yards, which I was not fond of. Soaring over this line in 6 of 8 matchups, I do believe this player prop line is set too low.
With Brown out of the lineup, Smith cooked up for 76 and 79 yards vs the Falcons and Saints. While that hasn't seem to affect his production, Smith's tallied over 50+ yards in 4 or 6 games with Brown active this season. One of the best WR2 in the NFL, Smith is the clear second favorite target for Jalen Hurts. Trailing Brown by just nine targets, his 487 receiving yards sets him far apart from Dallas Goedert and Grant Calcaterra. Even with Jahan Dotson as the third receiving options, we know one aspect--- Jalen Hurts heavily relies on Brown and Smith.
DeVonta Smith Is One Of The Best WR2 In The NFL
Averaging a solid 13.2 yards per catch, this is Smith's lowest prop line of the season. With the lowest set in week 10 at 55.5 vs the Cowboys, we can forget his 14 yard performance. With 2 receptions on 3 targets, Smith should see plenty of targets from the 6-10 range. Especially if AJ Brown is bottled up or not fully healthy.
In a nut shell, the Commanders are allowing 142 yards from receivers this season, including nearly 13 yards per carry. While Malik Nabers, Zay Flowers, and Ja'Marr Chase are the only receivers to top 100+ yards this year, other receivers have had success. While this prop line is relatively low, we've witnessed George Pickens (91), Malik Nabers (59), Zay Flowers (132), Amari Cooper (60), Ja'Tavion Sanders (61), and Rashod Batemen (71) to clear well over 50+ yards in recent weeks.
With a 74 % catch rate, Smith leads the Eagles in total snap distribution (480), and has nearly lined up identically in the slot and wide. If Smith lines up in the slot more than not, he should have pleasant matchup vs the Commanders linebackers, who aren't the strongest part of the defense. With a career-high 74 catch percentage, Smith has soared over 50+ yards in 6 of 8 games this season. Yet to have a 100+ night, look for Smith to breakout tonight. Given WR1's have been bottled up mainly this season, I like Smith's chance as the second receiver.
Final Same Game Parley NFL betting prediction: DeVonta Smith 50+ Receiving Yards + Over 22.5 Longest Reception
My third leg of my same game parlay, I bet on DeVonta Smith to record over 22.5 longest reception. Since I'm already betting on Smith to record 50+ yards, I'm going to include one of the fastest receivers in the NFL. Soaring over in four of eight games, we saw explode for 25, 45, 45, and 46 yards vs the Packers, Browns, Bengals, and Jaguars. With a longest reception of 46 yards this year, we recently saw George Pickens and Mike Williams to torch the Commanders secondary for 34 and 32 receptions in week 10. And of course, how can we forget running back Jaylen Warren, who had a beautiful 26 yard gain through the air.
For a offensive that's struggled greatly, we saw Giants receivers Darius Slayton (23), and Theo Johnson (35) erupt for well over 22.5 longest reception. And in recent weeks, DJ Moore (27), Ja'Tavion Sanders (29), Zay Flowers (44), Rashod Batemen (23), and Mark Andrews (38) all went long for over 22.5. With receivers tallying over 22.5 longest reception every game vs Washington this season, it's safe to say this is a strong parlay pick. While Brown and Smith can operate as down the field guys, bet on Smith tonight.
NFL Spread Bet: Philadelphia Eagles -3.5
My last leg of my same game parlay, I'm betting on the Philadelphia Eagles to cover the 3.5 favorable spread at home tonight vs the Commanders. Fighting for the NFC East, there's no doubt the Commanders are for real. With rookie quarter back Jayden Daniels under center, this franchise has erupted from the top down. With prestine accuracy and ability to use his legs, Daniels is a primary reason why the Commanders are a top offensive team.
Boasting the fourth most points per game in the NFL (29), the Commanders are one of the most elite teams on the ground, thanks to Brian Robinson Jr, Daniels, and Austin Eckler. Led by Terry McLaurin, Zach Ertz, and Noah Brown, Washington puts up nearly 224 yards through the air. When I say they are for real, I truly mean it. How many rookie quarterbacks can throw a Hail Mary 50+ yards to win a game? With that said, there's undeniable connection between Daniels and McLaurin.
7-3 on the season, the Commanders have an impressive 7-3 ATS record. With that said, we've seen impressive victories over the Browns, Cardinals, and Bengals. While they are one of the better teams in the NFL, the Commanders did suffer a one point 28-27 loss vs the Steelers. Bettors can thank newly acquired Mike Williams with the go-ahead touchdown for that. While I'm not taking anything away from the Commanders, let's break down their schedule the last four weeks. The Giants, Bears, and Panthers are all sub .500 teams.
The Eagles Defense Is Unmatched
What sticks out to me was their ability to push the spread vs the Ravens, and cover the +3.5 and +7.5 unfavorable spreads vs the Cardinals and the Bengals. One of their toughest tests yet, the Eagles are fresh off a five game win streak in which they've covered in 3 of the last 4 games. While the Eagles have yet to cover the spread at home, I'm betting on them to do so tonight.
Overall, what separates these two teams is the defense. We know the Eagles and Commanders are two of the top offensive powerhouses in the NFL. While the Commanders aren't terrible, the Eagles are an elite, tricky defense. Limiting opponents to 17.9 points per game, they allow the third fewest yards through the air (173.4), and 100.7 yards on the ground. Aside from the Jaguars pouring in 23 points in week 9, the Eagles limited the Cowboys to 6, Bengals to 17, and Giants to 16 points.
Final Same Game Parley NFL betting prediction: Eagles -3.5
Neck and neck with the Commanders, both teams possesses a +73 and +74 point differential in the NFC East. Although both teams were trending in the wrong direction, I truly believe this Eagles defense will be extremely challenging for Jayden Daniels. Overall, we are talking about one of the best red zone defense in the Eagles vs the Commanders, who allow opponents to score at a 70% rate.
Giving up 4.8 yards per carry, the Commanders rush defense is something that worries me. With Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley the inevitable opponent, Washington truly can't stop the run. Again the difference here is defense, especially against an Eagles defense who's been top tier in the last five weeks. Lay the points with the Eagles to complete my four-leg +420 parlay.
Ready to make moves on this matchup?
BallislifeBets
has the hottest picks to back your game-day bets.
BALLISLIFE.COM
