Sports Reporter | Capper
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The Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers will do battle on Monday night in a rematch of last year's NFC Championship Game, and as Detroit seeks out the No. 1 seed in the conference the 49ers will do their best to play the role of spoiler.
We've seen San Francisco throw the ball a bit more in recent weeks, and that should remain the case on primetime this week as Detroit continues to excel against the run and take leads early in games. As a result, we'll look to capitalize on that game script with a few NFL player props.
Let's highlight a few players who should shine under the lights as we build a same-game parlay for Lions vs 49ers on Monday Night Football this week.
Odds: +370 at DraftKings
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We know the Detroit Lions love to run the ball -- sitting seventh in rush play rate -- and now that David Montgomery is on the shelf, Jahmyr Gibbs has become much busier.
The 49ers have been dreadful of late with the fifth-worst EPA allowed per rush in the last five weeks, stooping a bit lower than their 24th-place rank in DVOA for the year. Teams have been left with no choice but to pound the rock as a result, running it over 46% of the time which sits in the top 10.
Gibbs has now gained well over four yards per tote in the last two weeks and even in a timeshare has hit this number seven times in 15 games. I have plenty of faith that he'll have a busy day at the office.
On the flip side, the 49ers should have to put some faith behind Brock Purdy in this one given the Lions have played suffocating defense and are projected to lead in this game early on.
The young signalcaller has thrown the ball a total of 71 times in the last two weeks, and with heavier volume he's thrown an interception in each contest.
The Lions have done an exceptional job in the secondary this year, sitting top five in DVOA against the pass, but they've also turned the ball over plenty and sit ninth in interception rate.
It's been five long weeks since the Lions have snatched an interception, but I don't like the trends developing here for Purdy and do think this gam will feature plenty of throwing given opponents have done so at the third-highest rate in the league all season long. It's a good bet.
Finally, we'll venture off into rather uncharted waters with Isaac Guerendo and his receiving total.
I say this, because we're not quite sure what the rookie is really capable of. He's been used sparingly all year, only getting the work he's been desiring in the last two weeks with a myriad of injuries hitting the backfield.
The Lions have done a great job of getting to the quarterback this year which has led to running backs finding space to operate in the passing game. They're down in the bottom 10 of the league in DVOA against the position, and Guerendo is coming off a season-high four targets last week, which netted him 18 yards.
He's now seen significant work four times this season, and in the last three he's gone over this number every time despite few catches. As Purdy drops back more than normal, I expect Guerendo to be there just beyond the line of scrimmage with room to run.
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