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Best Same Game Parlay Today: SGP Picks for Texans vs Chiefs (Jan 18)

Publish Date: 01/18/2025
Fact checked by: Sara Jane Gamelli

Our Saturday slate for the NFL Divisional Round kicks off at Arrowhead Stadium where the Kansas City Chiefs will look to mount another deep playoff run off the back of an impressive 15-win season.

After Houston's rather shocking comeback win on Wild Card Weekend, are there lessons to be learned about the way this defense is running? Will a reliable target who was quiet against the Chargers step up on Saturday?

Let's highlight a few players who should shine in this one as we build a same-game parlay for Texans vs Chiefs on Saturday, January 18.

Best Same Game Parlay for Texans vs Chiefs

Odds: +500 at DraftKings

  • Patrick Mahomes 25+ Rushing Yards
  • DeAndre Hopkins Over 31.5 Receiving Yards
  • Dalton Schultz 40+ Receiving Yards

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Patrick Mahomes 25+ Rushing Yards

I'm generally a fan of backing QBs to use their legs in the playoffs, and this game is certainly no exception. The matchup is right, and history would tell us that Patrick Mahomes will look to gain some important yards on the ground.

Mahomes has averaged nearly 30 rushing yards per game in his playoff career, and after amassing 66 yards in last year's Super Bowl has now hit this mark in three of his last five.

  • The key in that game was San Francisco's stellar pass rush, and now Mahomes will begin his latest postseason against a Texans team which grades out No. 1 in Pass Rush Win Rate.

While not every quarterback likes to run the ball, as we saw last week with Justin Herbert, there have still been some solid games this season against Houston with opposing quarterbacks running for 25 or more yards seven times. One of those men was Mahomes, who carried five times for 33 yards back in Week 16.

I expect Mahomes to be flushed out of the pocket all day in this one, and that will naturally lead to more scampers.

DeAndre Hopkins Over 31.5 Receiving Yards

The Chargers really forced the issue with Ladd McConkey last week, going to their WR1 a whopping 14 times in the passing game, and as the Chiefs struggle to run the ball on one of the best defenses in football I think they'll follow a similar pattern.

  • It seems going to your outside receivers is your best bet against Houston, which boasts arguably the best secondary around. It sits fifth in DVOA against opposing tight ends, which may take Travis Kelce out of the picture here, and it's also excelled against speedier slot receivers.

Kansas City brough DeAndre Hopkins in for this exact type of game, and I suspect he'll resume being a large part of the offense after a quiet final game of the regular season against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Hopkins had notched 32 yards or more in seven of his last eight games prior to a light day at the office, and should have a big game against his former team.


Dalton Schultz 40+ Receiving Yards

We'll head to the Houston side of the ball to find our final winner, and it may come as a bit of a surprise given how recent games have gone.

Dalton Schultz has gone under 30 yards in his previous three games, including last week's win, but he did catch five of eight targets prior to that against the Chiefs to compile 45 yards.

That's no surprise, as the Chiefs have allowed the second-most receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends this season at 68.5 per game, and Schultz has certainly proven capable of coming up big with a collection of 40-yard outings this season.

It may not be the easiest bet to stomach, but we can rest on the fact that the Chiefs not only struggle against the pass, but struggle in this specific area. The line's high for a reason, take it.

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