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Best Same Game Parlay Today: SGP Picks for Bills vs Ravens on Sunday Night Football (Sept 29)

Publish Date: Sep 29, 2024
Fact checked by: Sara Jane Gamelli

Facing some tough competition in the AFC East from the New York Jets, the Buffalo Bills will look to keep their unbeaten run going on Sunday Night Football when they head on the road to face a hungry Baltimore Ravens team.

Baltimore finally picked up a win last week against the Dallas Cowboys, though the game nearly slipped away after a commanding first half, perhaps showing that this team is as bad as its record indicates.

(Photo by Kathryn Riley/Getty Images)

With plenty to play, and plenty of talent on both sides, combining some player props could be the best approach to this one. Let's make a same-game parlay for Bills vs Ravens on Sunday Night Football in Week 4.

Best Same Game Parlay for Bills vs Ravens on Sunday Night Football

Odds: +479 at FanDuel

  • Josh Allen Under 29.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
  • Lamar Jackson Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
  • Dalton Kinkaid Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

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Josh Allen Under 29.5 Rushing Yards

While Josh Allen remains one of the toughest quarterbacks in football to defend given his ability to pick up tough yards on the ground and get the ball to his talented group of receivers, he should feature a different look in Week 4 against the Ravens.

  • The Ravens have struggled in pass coverage thus far, even helping Gardner Minshew look good a couple of weeks ago, and they've ranked second-worst in yards allowed after the catch with a bevvy of missed tackles hurting them time and time again.

Allen should look to pick apart this Baltimore secondary, just as he did against Jacksonville, and that should mean few rushing attempts for the MVP hopeful.

  • Discounting kneel-downs, the Ravens have allowed just three rushing attempts to opposing quarterbacks for 11 yards, and carrying the third-best rushing defense into this one according to Pro Football Focus we shouldn't see Allen devastate on the ground.

The 28-year-old hasn't taken matters into his own hands on the ground at the volume you'd expect over the last two seasons, and in a tough matchup I don't think this market is priced correctly.

Lamar Jackson Over 58.5 Rushing Yards

Lamar Jackson, on the other hand, should have plenty of reasons to rush the ball throughout the course of this game.

  • Buffalo enters with the sixth-worst rushing defense in the league according to PFF, ranking 27th in rushing EPA to boot.
  • The Bills allowed Kyler Murray to rush for 57 yards on five carries in Week 1, and even the Dolphins' group of Tua Tagovailoa and Skylar Thompson rushed three times for 21 yards.

With an excellent pass rush, Jackson should be inclined to run even if there's not a designed play for him. On primetime, too, Jackson has seemed to bring out his best level.

Yes, he's scored just one rushing touchdown in his last 12 primetime games, but Jackson has eclipsed this number in four of his last six of those contests.

Jackson has also rushed 14 or more times in two of his three games, leaving things to his arm in Week 2 against a struggling Raiders secondary. I think we'll see more of his legs here once again after running 14 times for 87 yards, and he's already got a 100-yard game his pocket from opening night.

Dating back to last postseason, Jackson's now hit this number in three of his last five and run 11 times for 73 yards in his last meeting with the Bills, if it means anything to you.

Dalton Kinkaid Over 38.5 Receiving Yards

Week 3 was a long-awaited coming out party for Dalton Kinkaid, who established himself as an integral part of this Bills offense a season ago.

  • Kinkaid finished the playoffs with eight catches on 11 targets for 104 yards in two games, and prior to that hauled in 11 of 15 targets for 171 yards in his final two regular season games.

Now, Kinkaid will be lined up to have a field day against a Ravens secondary which, as we noted, has struggled. They rank sixth-worst in missed tackles this year along with their poor marks in yards allowed after the catch, so while you might be inclined to play the receptions with Kinkaid his yardage prop likely holds more value.

  • Kinkaid ranked 12th among all tight ends in missed tackles forced a year ago according to PFF, and ninth in yards after the catch.
  • While he's failed to replicate the missed tackles so far, he still sits eighth this year in yards after the catch among tight ends, leading to me to believe this is a very generous number.

The Ravens have also struggled to defend the position, allowing 17 catches on 24 targets to opposing tight ends in the last two weeks and yielding an average of 12.17 yards per reception this season.

As Allen and the Bills lean on the passing game, look to Kinkaid to be a main beneficiary.

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