Key Points
- SJ breaks down her best player prop bets for Super Bowl LIX between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles
Get your popcorn out. Super Bowl LIX is quickly approaching. In a rematch of Super Bowl 57, the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles will square off in New Orleans.
(Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images)
While the Eagles were favored in Super Bowl 57, they find themselves as +1.3 point spread and +102 moneyline underdogs on FanDuel. In what will be considered a close matchup, Super Bowl LIX truly highlights the top teams in the NFL. With a first-round BYE, the Chiefs took care of business against the Texans in the divisional round. Squeaking by the Buffalo Bills 32-29, Kansas City will appear in their third straight Super Bowl.
With celebrities expected to show out and Kendrick Lamar to perform at halftime, are the stars aligned for the Chiefs? Looking to be the first team to three-peat in the Super Bowl era, Patrick Mahomes and company will make their fourth Super Bowl appearance since 2019.
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Talk about the closest thing to a dynasty since Tom Brady and the New England Patriots.
The Eagles will make their second Super Bowl appearance since 2022 under quarterback Jalen Hurts. With Saquon Barkley switching gears from the Giants to the Eagles in the offseason, Philadelphia has a stacked roster. This time, Philadelphia will seek revenge after conceding to the Chiefs in Super Bowl 57.
Is this the year Barkley finally gets his Super Bowl ring? After all, that's the main reason the back jumped ship to an NFC East division rival.
Odds Are Current As Of February 6 AT 11 A.M. ET
If you're looking to bet on Super Bowl Sunday, you've come to the right place! Arguably one of the biggest betting days of the year, I will always preach responsible betting. With that said, even on the big day, I keep bank roll management in mind. What does that mean? I don't bet more than 2-3 % of my total bank roll on a single player prop bet.
With an NFL betting record of 80-49 in January, let's finish out the season hot! There's one day left, and that's Super Bowl Sunday.
Let's take a look at my three best player prop bets for Super Bowl LIX between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, February 9.
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NFL Super Bowl LIX: Chiefs vs Eagles Predictions for Sunday, February 9
Super Bowl LIX Player Prop Bets: Dallas Goedert
GP: 10 | Receiving TD: 2 | Targets: 52 | Receiving Yards: 496 | Average: 11.8 | Long: 61 | First Down: 20
- Over 4.5 Receptions (-130 Fanatics)
- Over 18.5 Longest Reception (-115 FanDuel)
My first player prop bet for Super Bowl LIX, I placed one unit on Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert to record over 4.5 receptions and over 18.5 longest reception against the Chiefs.
While Saquon Barkley and the run game has made up for a large part of the offense in the playoffs, Goedert has emerged as one of Hurts favorite targets. You know what they say about a quarterback. A tight end is their best friend. Especially in the biggest moments.
While Goedert has always been a viable option for Hurts, he was limited to 10 games in the regular season with a knee injury.
- Third in receiving yards behind A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith (496), Goedert has by far been the top option in the playoffs.
Dallas Goedert Has Incredible Chemistry With Jalen Hurts
Leading all Eagles receivers with 188 receiving yards, the tight end leads the receiving core 15 receptions on 18 targets. A formidable force on the offensive end, it's Goedert that been consistent.
- Tallying 45+ yards through three playoff games, we've seen Goedert record 47 yard vs the Packers, 56 against the Rams and 85 vs the Commanders in the NFC Championship.
Even alongside the talented duo of Brown and Smith, Hurts has targeted his tight end 18 times through three post season games. Recording seven receptions vs the Commanders last week, Goedert has averaged exactly five receptions throughout that span.
While the Eagles were favored against the Commanders, bettors didn't expect a 32 point massacre. With that said, I don't expect Goedert to tally nearly anywhere near 85 yards. However, how can we forget Goedert's 60 yards on 6 reception performances vs the Chiefs in Super Bowl 57?
- With the run game nearly abysmal, it was Goedert who make a crucial catch on 3rd and 14 for a first down.
Dallas Goedert Has A Favorable Matchup vs The Chiefs In Super Bowl LIX
With all that said, Goedert has an excellent matchups with the Chiefs. While Kansas City remains a top defensive team, there's a few holes in the secondary.
- Allowing the most yards to tight ends this season with 1,166, the Chiefs gave up the most receptions (103), and fourth most targets (133) to tight ends.
While the defense has performed better in the playoffs, we saw Texans tight end Dalton Schultz erupt for 63 yards on 4 receptions. For Josh Allen and the Bills, Buffalo primarily relied on the running game and wide receivers.
Although Grant Calcaterra may seem like a threat, Goedert played 92 %, 95 %, and 82 % of the snaps in the playoffs.
Overall, this is a strong play that has great odds for 4.5 receptions. With that said, Goedert receives 12.5 % of the teams total targets, and targets on 24.4 % of the routes.
- I also like Dallas Goedert to record over 18.5 longest reception. Soaring over this prop over the last three games, the tight end is averaging a longest reception of 27 through three playoff matchups.
Final NFL Super Bowl LIX Betting Prediction: Dallas Goedert over 4.5 Receptions (-130 Fanatics) + Dallas Goedert Over 18.5 Longest Reception (-115 FanDuel)
Hitting over this prop in just four regular season games, we know Goedert is a viable long shot option for Hurts. We saw it against the Commanders, where Hurts and Goerdert connected for 26 yards, and 31 vs the Rams. In the divisional round, we saw Dalton Schultz torched the secondary for a longest reception of 34 yards.
Steve Spanuolo may be effective against tight ends in the red zone. However,Hurts and Goedert connected on a high percentage of third down conversions this year. Goedert is a big target a 6'5 that has a 80 % catch rate.
- I'm taking Dallas Goedert to record over 4.5 receptions and over 18.5 longest reception in Super Bowl LIX.
Super Bowl LIX Player Prop Bets Sunday: Patrick Mahomes
GP: 16 | Passing Yards: 3,928 | Passing TD: 26 | Int: 11 | Rushing Yards: 307 | Rushing TD: 2 | Rushing long: 33
- Over 29.5 Rushing Yards (-110 FanDuel)
My second Super Bowl player prop bet, I placed one unit on Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes to record over 29.5 rushing yards vs the Eagles.
What makes Mahomes such an incredible quarterback is his ability to scramble. In all my years of betting on and watching him, he's made the big plays with his legs. Crucial on first and fourth downs, I'm taking Mahomes to once again make the plays himself.
While Andy Reid has a split backfield committee between Kareem Hunt and Isaiah Pacheco, it's unclear who will have the upper hand on Sunday. And we've seen Pacheco become a viable threat in the last Super Bowl vs the Eagles.
If we analyze the stats of Mahomes rushing yards, all signs are pointing to the under.
- Aside from 33 rushing yards vs the Texans, and 43 vs the Bills, this player prop has soared under in 7 of the last 10 games.
What Makes Mahomes So Elite Is The Ability To Scramble
As we saw in the AFC Championship game, bettors witnessed Mahomes take it in himself for two rushing touchdowns against Buffalo. With man coverage focused on Travis Kelce, Mahomes finished the day with 11 carries alone.
Now he gets an Eagles defense who ranks third in drop back EPA. A significant difference from the Bills Mahomes won't get much time in the pocket. In fact, they rank no.1 in drop back sack rate.
Given the Chiefs run pass plays 63.5 % of the time, fate is in Mahomes hands. Historically speaking, he's had 82 rushing yards alone in the last two matchups vs the Eagles.
- In Super Bowl 57, we saw Mahomes scramble for 44 yards against the Eagles, and all on a bad ankle. Grimacing in pain, Mahomes converted several first downs, including that 17 yard gain in the first quarter.
Final NFL Super Bowl LIX Betting Prediction: Patrick Mahomes Over 29.5 Rushing Yards (-110 FanDuel)
Because of Mahomes ability to escape pressure, he single handedly set up the Chiefs for victory in the final two minutes of the game. Mahomes simply caught the Eagles sleeping tied 35-35 in Super Bowl 57, in which he was able to move from chains from the 50 yard line with his feet.
Tallying 172 rushing yards in four super Bowls, Mahomes hasn't dipped below 29 yard in either. Averaging 43 yards on the ground though four Super Bowls, I'm simply not fading the goat this time around.
- Give me Patrick Mahomes to record over 29.5 rushing yards in Super Bowl LIX.
Super Bowl LIX Player Prop Bets: JuJu Smith-Schuster
GP: 14 | Receiving TD: 2 | Targets: 26 | Receiving Yards: 231 | Average: 12.8 | Long: 50 | First Down: 11
- Over 1.5 Receptions (-120 Fanatics)
My last Super Bowl player prop bet, I placed one unit on Chiefs receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster to record over 1.5 receptions against the Eagles.
Smith-Schuster reunited with the Chiefs after winning Super Bowl 57 with Kansas City. Having signed with the New England Patriots, the receiver is on a one year deal with Kansas City. Although getting lost in the rotation at times, Smith-Schuster finished with 231 receiving yards on 18 receptions.
If we take a deep dive of the Chiefs Super Bowl dynasty the top receivers haven't always been the ones to move the needle.
- We saw that last year, where Mecole Hardman became the unlikely hero with 57 yards and one touchdown.
JuJu Smith-Schuster Was A Crucial X-Factor In the AFC Championship vs The Bills
If anything, Mahomes has an elite group of receivers around him. With Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown atop of the depth chart, Smith-Schuter remains the Wr3 for Kansas City. While it's difficult to bet on Chiefs receiving props, I think it's safe to say he's good for 2 receptions.
As we saw in the AFC Championship game, Smith-Schuster came alive for 60 yards on 2 receptions, which included a long gain of 31 yards.
- Second on the Chiefs in receiving yards, it appears Mahomes still retains chemistry with the wideout.
Like to line up across Darius Slay, it won't be a walk in the park for any Chiefs receiver. Overall, this is a Kansas City team that's allowed the 12th most receptions to wide receivers with 12.2 per game. With that, Smith-Schuster is likely to be overshadowed by Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy.
Given Smith-Schuster played 58 % of the snaps against the Bills, that's indicative he will be somewhat part of the game plan on Super Bowl Sunday.
- With DeAndre Hopkins lining up for 18 % of the snaps, Smith-Schuster is the clear no. 3 option behind Worthy and Brown.
Final NFL Super Bowl LIX Betting Prediction: JuJu Smith-Schuster Over 1.5 Receptions (-120 Fanatics)
Having caught some deep passes from Mahomes against the Bills, it was Smith-Schuster who recorded a team high seven receptions vs the Eagles in Super Bowl 57.
For those reasons, I'll take JuJu Smith Schuster to record over 1.5 receptions on Super Bowl Sunday.
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