
Super Bowl LIX is approaching, and we have a highly anticipated showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles.
(Photo by Michael DeMocker/Getty Images)
If you're looking to bet on the first touchdown scorer on Super Bowl Sunday, you've come to the right place! Analyzing odds and value, I have a mix of three players that I believe will cross the plane on Sunday.
With an 80-49 NFL betting record in January, let's stay hot! Super Bowl Sunday comes once a year, and there should be plenty of scoring among the Eagles and Chiefs. One of my favorite bets, let's take a look who I think will score a touchdown on Super Bowl Sunday!
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Jalen Hurts Anytime TD Odds: -115 (FanDuel)
GP: 15 | Passing Yards: 2,903 | Passing TD: 18 | Rushing Yards: 630 | Rushing TD: 14
My first Super Bowl prop bet, I placed one unit on Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts to score a touchdown against the Kansas City Chiefs. With great value at -115 odds, this is a strong play, and here's why.
When I think of touchdowns in the NFL, Jalen Hurts automatically comes to mind. Let's be honest, the Eagles are the only team that can effectively perform the "tush push."
Super Bowl or not, Hurts racked up 14 rushing touchdowns in 15 games in the regular season. Time and time again, Hurts has found the end zone against elite defensive teams. That includes the Steelers and Ravens.
Now Hurts get's another stab at a Super Bowl Championship, this time a repeat against the Kansas City Chiefs. Knowing how Hurts plays, he will do anything to score a touchdown.
While the Chiefs remain one of the better defensive teams in the NFL, they allowed the 9th most rushing touchdowns this season among quarterbacks with four. With that, Kansas City have up 434 rushing yards on the ground to opposing quarterbacks.
While it's been a different story in the playoffs, the Chiefs prevented both CJ Stroud and Josh Allen from scoring touchdowns. While the buzz surrounds Saquon Barkley, Hurts recent stats are mind blowing.
It's been Hurts who had a field day, scoring three touchdowns alone in the NFC Championship game vs the Commanders.
While Hurts scoring ability is likely to come from the one yard line, or the "tush push," we did see him scramble for a 9 yard rushing touchdown midway through the third quarter against Washington.
Yes, we can argue Hurts suffered a knee injury last game, which shouldn't affect him with plenty of rest in between games.
What makes this Eagles team so dangerous is their 1-2 punch with Hurts and Barkley in the end zone. The Eagles rushing leader (14) in the regular season, Hurt's 49 attempts rushing is second to Barkley. However, scoring on 96.1 % of rushing attempts in the red zone, there's a high probability this will happen again on Super Bowl Sunday.
For an Eagles team that put up 28.4 points per game, Philadelphia is a team that's scored over 58 percent in the red zone.
Over the last three games, that number has skyrocketed to 72.73 percent. Given the Eagles were one of the best teams to convert on fourth down (73.3 %), look for them to move and chains with Hurts.
11th in rush EPA, we've seen some holes in this Chiefs defense. Given the Eagles call more running plays than anything (50.8 %), there's a reason why Philadelphia put up the 8th most yards per game in the regular season (367.2).
There's a clear cut reason why this is a strong player prop. Hurts sits behind a strong offensive line that includes Jordan Mailata, landon Dickerson, Cam Jurgens, Mekhi Becton, and Lane Johnson.
One of the most consistent scorers in the NFL, Hurts averaged 4.2 yards per carry during the regular season, and 5.3 in the playoffs.
Regardless of how great the Chiefs run game is, the Chiefs have struggled historically to contain hurts. We saw Hurts pile in for two touchdowns vs the Chiefs in November of 2023.
Of course, how can we forget Jalen Hurts 70 rushing yard and three touchdown performance vs the Kansas City Chiefs in LVII?
Xavier Worthy Anytime TD Odds: +150 (FanDuel)
GP: 17 | Receptions: 59 | Targets: 98 | Receiving Yards: 638 | Avg: 10.8| Rec TD: 6 | Rush TD: 0 | Long Rec: 54 | First Down: 36
My second Super Bowl player prop, I placed one unit on Chiefs wide receiver Xavier Worthy to score a touchdown against the Eagles.
Drafted no. 28 overall in the 2024 NFL draft, Worthy did not disappoint. Amid injuries to receivers, Worthy has now become Patrick Mahomes no. 1 option among the receiving core.
Chiefs Super Bowl player props can always be a bit tricky to bet on. Fully healthy, one could argue Mahomes has the most talented receiving core ever. Imagine a lineup that consists of Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Travis Kelce?
That doesn't include Skyy Moore, Rashee Rice, and Mecole Hardman, who are all on the injured reserve.
It's clear Mahomes has a solid connection with Worthy, especially given he led all Chiefs receivers with six touchdowns this season. Of those six, four game within the 20 yard line. Inside the red zone, Worthy led all receivers with 18 targets, and 11 receptions.
One of the slimmest receivers in the NFL, Worthy has had some issues with a 5.1 % drop rate. However, gaining 16.9 percent of the teams targets, he's become a solid slot option for Mahomes.
While the Eagles have an elite defense, they still managed to give up 14 touchdowns to receivers this season. And we saw them give up one lone touchdown to receivers in three playoff games. In the first three rounds against the Packers, Rams, and Commanders, Terry McLaurin was the only receiver successful in crossing the goal line.
With that, The Chiefs have one of the best to ever play the game of football in Patrick Mahomes. One of the best in fourth down conversions (70 %), the Chiefs managed to score over 53 percent in the red zone this season.
Third in drop back EPA, Mahomes likely isn't going to have a ton of time in the pocket. However, his ability to effectively scramble is what's made the Chiefs so great.
Not the best against slot receivers, we are likely to see Worthy continue as a red zone slot thread. While he had a longest touchdown of 54 yards this season, he could be used in unique situations.
Failing to score agains the Texans in the divisional round, we saw Mahomes connect with Worthy for 85 yards and one touchdown vs the Bills.
With 11 receptions in two playoff games, Worthy has scored three touchdowns in the last five games. It won't be a walk in the park against Cooper DeJean or Darius Slay. However, it's clear Andy Reid has some trust in the rookie.
With opposing defenses likely to cover Travis Kelce, now is the time for Worthy to prove the doubters wrong. The Eagles held teams to a league low 174.2 receiving yards this season. However, he possesses the speed needed to beat the Eagles strong secondary.
A.J.Brown Anytime TD Odds: +175 (FanDuel)
GP: 13 | Receptions: 67 | Targets: 97 | Receiving Yards: 1,079 | Avg: 16.1 | Rec TD: 7 | Rush TD: 0 | Long Rec: 67 | First Down: 51
My third Super Bowl player prop may be the most corporate of all. With this pick, I placed one unit on Eagles receiver A.J. Brown to score a touchdown against the Kansas City Chiefs.
I'm not not one to pick "corporate" or popular picks, but I do believe this has great value at +175 odds. With the way Saquon Barkley has dominated on the ground, I'd like to think the Chiefs will have a plan in place for him defensively.
There's no denying Brown was MIA for the Eagles first two playoff victories over the Packers and Rams. In fact, he was seen reading a book on the sidelines.
However, Brown was traded to the Eagles from the Titans for this very moment. Jalen Hurts no.1 receiving option, Brown finished second in receiving touchdowns with seven. Although DeVonta Smith led the way with eight total touchdowns, he's led the Eagles in targets throughout the playoffs.
In fact, Brown came alive and torched the Commanders for 96 yards and a touchdown.
Tied with Gallas Goedert for 18 postseason targets, Brown and Smith are neck-and-neck in terms of receiving yards. Where Brown separates himself has been his ability to score, and yards per reception (13.3).
Given the Chiefs allowed the 8th least rushing touchdowns in the NFL all season with eight, I'll direct my attention to Brown. Set to take place in his second super bowl, Brown faces a Chiefs team that allowed the 6th most touchdowns in the NFL (19).
To further elaborate, the Chiefs are allowing the fourth most yards to receivers in the playoffs with 168. With that, they've given up two touchdowns to receivers in two matchups.
We all know as bettors how well A.J. Brown matches up against man defense in the NFL.
With two touchdowns against Kansas City in the last three matchups, we can't forget Brown's 45 yard bomb that put the Eagles up 14-7 in Super Bowl 57. Tallying 96 yards on 6 receptions, I expect Brown to be heavily involved.
The Eagles put up the 11th most passing touchdowns this season (24), including 416 passing yards in the playoffs.
The fifth highest odds to score a touchdown, why would I pick Hurt's no. 1 target? While Barkley and Goedert remain popular touchdown candidates, Brown has over 200 receiving yards in the last three games against the Chiefs.
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