NFL Best Bets For Thanksgiving: 3 of the best NFL Picks on Bears vs Lions November 28

It's Thursday, Thanksgiving day, and it's one of the most exciting times of the year! Get your turkey, mashed potatoes, and green beans ready. We have three games on the slate, two of which are divisional rival matchups. Let's take a look at the NFL Thanksgiving slate and current DraftKings odds for Week 13, Thursday, November 28.

 (Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)

NFL Week 13 DraftKings Thanksgiving Slate for November 28

Now that we've looked at the Thanksgiving schedule, I'll drop and analyze my three best bets for the NFL games today. With an NFL betting record of 47-36 in November, let's keep the strong plays going! Placing both my bets within FanDuel and DraftKings Sportsbook, these are all straight plays.

If you plan to bet on the NFL, the Bears and Lions matchup will kick off at 12:30 p.m. ET on CBS.  With an afternoon NFC East rival showdown, the Giants and Cowboys matchup is slated for 4:30 p.m. ET.  The Packers will host the Dolphins on NBC for the late-night primetime matchup at 8:20 p.m. ET.

With the Bears and the Lions trending in opposite directions, Detroit are winners of nine straight. Although showing some fight, the Bears are riding a five game losing streak under head coach Matt Eberflus. 4-1 in their last head-to-head matchups, the Lions find themselves as 10 point favorites at home.

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NFL Thanksgiving Bears vs Lions Best Bets For Thursday, November 28

Spread Best Bet #1: Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions

Bears 2024-2025 ATS Record: 5-4-2
Lions 2024-2025 ATS Record: 9-2

• Lions -10 (-112 DraftKings)

My first best Thanksgiving bet, I placed one unit on the Detroit Lions (10-1, 4-1 home) to cover the 10 point favorable spread at home vs the Chicago Beats (4-7, 0-4). A Classic holiday NFC North divisional matchup, when I think of Thanksgiving, I think of the Lions.

This time, the 10-1 Lions are for real, and have one of the scariest offenses in the entire NFL Scary enough where I may spill the gravy off my plate. With that said, with a 9-2 record ATS, they get a prime matchup at home.

8-2 ATS as favorites, the Lions have an excellent record of 4-1 against the spread at home. Third in EPA/play, this Detroit team isn't playing around.

• Leading the NFL with a +177 point differential, the boast the highest offense. Averaging 32.7 point per game, there's few holes in the Lions starting lineup.

With Jared Goff under center, Detroit is top six in both passing yards (243.5) and rushing yards (150.8). With such a well balanced offense, they nearly run equal about of plays (48.8 %) as passing. Although questionable from last week, Detroit has a lethal run game with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs.

While Goff's had some tumultuous weeks, we have to analyze the talent behind him. Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Sam LaPorta to start. Although LaPorta has faced a major second year regression, Goff still has some of the most lethal weapons in the NFL.

Why The Lions Toughness and Grit Can Help Them Cover The Spread

On Thanksgiving, the Bears will face a coach in Dan Campbell who's shown teams no mercy. Whether they are up by 30 or 10, Campbell has grit and will play until the very last snap. We saw that in week 11, where the Lions destroyed the Jaguars 52-6. Up 49-6, the Lions continue to pour on another field goal.

The question remains, can the Bears defensive unit hold up against a Lions team that's averaging 34 points over the last three weeks?  Better yet, can the Bears keep up on the offensive end vs a Lions team that's limited the Colts and Jaguars to six points!?

• With a +64 point differential over the last two weeks, taking the Lions to cover is a strong play today.

Overall, the Bears are on a five game losing streak, and they've covered the spread in just one of those matchups. While it seems the offense is slightly improving, this Chicago team has fought hard as of late. Facing their third NFC North divisional rival in the last three weeks, they covered the +6 point spread vs Green Bay, and pushed vs Minnesota.

Sure, the Bears conceded to the Vikings 30-27 in week 12. However, down 24-16, it was Caleb Williams garbage time touchdown to Keenan Allen that saved the spread with 22 seconds remaining.

• Aside from taking this game to overtime, this was a Bears team that was shut down with only 10 points through the first three quarters.

The Lions Defense Has Allowed Just Six Points Since Week 11

Now they face a Lions team, who allow the 8th most passing yards in the NFL (227.2). Although stifling against the run, don't let those stats fool you. Not only have they not allowed a single touchdown in two games, they haven't allowed a single second half point over the last two weeks.

Now they have a chance to dominate the Bears, who put up the 7th least points per game with 20.1. To be expected with a rookie quarterback, the Bears passing game has been disastrous this year (187.1 yards per game).

• Holding both Mac Jones and Anthony Richardson to under 200 yards passing, we've seen the Lions beat up on NFC North teams.

In week 9, the Lions carried away with a 10 point 24-14 victory over the Packers. Jared Goff didn't need to light it up from the pocket. Kerby Joseph, special teams, and the run game primarily took care of the scoring.

It wasn't until the late fourth quarter, Emmanuel Wilson ran it in for a garbage time touchdown. The point I'm making, if the defense sticks, Detroit should have no issue covering this spread. Sure, in theory this should be a close Thanksgiving matchup. However, If the Lions don't play down to their matchup, it's a wrap.

Overall, the Bears are middle of the road defensively. More forgiving on the ground, this is a Chicago team who allowed Sam Darnold to torch them for 330 passing yards and two touchdowns. Better yet, Aaron Jones was unstoppable on the ground with 106 rushing yards.

• Given Jordan Addison and T.J Hockenson combined for 276 receiving yards, the Lions should cook on Thursday.

Final NFL Thanksgiving Bears vs Lions Best Bet and Prediction: Detroit Lions -10 (-112 DraftKings)

With a +4 point differential, how can I confidently say the Bears will cover the spread on Thursday? 1-3 ATS on the road, they face a Lions team who has one of the highest defensive EPA/play to offensive EPA/play ratio in the NFL. For quarterbacks, Jared Goff and Caleb Williams are currently just miles apart.

While we arguably saw Williams best outing with 340 yards and two tuddies vs the Vikings, he faces a Lions team who ranks second in drop back EPA.

With the current line at 10, I expect it to trend upwards as we get closer to Thanksgiving. If it went any higher, I would consider the Bears to cover. While they haven't won by ten points over the last two years, the Lions are averaging 28.5 points on Thanksgiving since 2022.

• One of my strongest Thanksgiving best bets and picks, I'm laying the points with the Lions on Thursday. 

Bears vs Lions Player Prop Best Bet #1: Jameson Williams

2024-2024 NFL Stats

• Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-113 FanDuel)

My second best bet on Thanksgiving, I placed one unit on Lions receiver Jameson Williams to record over 47.5 receiving yards for -113 on FanDuel. Even among several suspensions and injuries, Williams is having a spectacular third year out of Alabama.

It's apparent Williams is Goff's second favorite target, compiling 602 receiving yards, behind St.Browns 747. A speedy route runner, I do believe this prop line is a tad low. Second in the NFL in yards per reception (20.8), I truly love this best bet for today.

Even with Sam LaPorta having an impressive rookie season last year, it's clear he's taken a back seat to Williams.  Sure, there's Tim Patrick and Brock Wright. However, both played 50 % of the snaps and under last week.

• Tallying the highest snap percentage (83 %) since week 4, I expect Williams to be heavily invoiced in the passing game.

The Chicago Bears Have A Tough Time Defending WR2s

Aside from injuries and a few outlier matchups vs the Vikings (-4 yards) and Cardinals (9 yards), Williams has been a crucial part of the passing game. With the ability to quickly get down field and make the big plays, Williams has easily hit over this prop in seven games.

On the matchups where Williams was targeted just two times, he exploded for 80 yards against the Seahawks. One of which included a 70-yard touchdown bomb from Goff. Leading the Lions with 6 targets and 64 yards vs the Colts, Jameson broke lose for a career-high 124 receiving yards vs the Jaguars.

If you're tailing my best bets for Thanksgiving, Williams has soared over 47.5 receiving yards in three straight games.

• Aside from a few outlier games, he's cruised over this total and has been a viable passing option in most of their outings.

Although able to line up in the slot, Jameson has a prime matchup in the wide this week. For a player that records over 20 yards per reception, Williams is truly a nightmare matchup. All he needs is an open lane, and no. 9 possesses one of the highest speeds among receivers in the NFL.

Allowing an average of 138 receiving yards to wideouts, the Bears have been forgiving vs WR2s, especially over the last few weeks. Just recently, bettors witness:

• Jordan Addison (162 yards)
• Kayshon Boutte (47 yards)
• Noah Brown (73 yards)
• Gabe Davis (45 yards)
• Jalen Coker (68 yards)
• TuTu Atwell (82 yards)
• Calvin Ridley (50 yards)

All WR2s that excelled over 47 yards and beyond. While the Bears are quite decent defensively, they rank within the top ten in DVOA. Given how much Chicago has struggled against secondary receivers, I wouldn't be surprised if Williams passes St. Brown in receiving yards.

Final NFL Thanksgiving Bears vs Lions Best Bet and Prediction: Jameson Williams OVER 47.5 Receiving Yards (-113 FanDuel)

One of my best bets for today, Williams has only increased his usage, recording 18 targets over the last three weeks. Tallying an average of 80.3 receiving yards over than span, Williams has been Goff's favorite down the field receiver at home. In an inside dome, Williams has completed several long plays in all four home games on the year.

Averaging 101 receiving yards in all home games, Williams has additionally record a longest reception of 50+ in each of them.

• My best bet of today, I'm rolling with Jameson Williams to soar over 47.5 receiving yards on Thursday. 

Bears vs Lions Player Prop Best Bet #2: Sam LaPorta

2024-2024 NFL Stats

• Over 16.5 Longest Reception (-114 FanDuel)

My third best bet of today, I placed one unit on Lions tight end Sam LaPorta to tally over 16.5 longest reception for -114 odds vs the Bears. Coming off an incredible rookie season, there's no doubt LaPorta has entered into a sophomore slump. However, he will remains one of the youngest, strongest tight ends in the NFL.

Playing 93 % of the snaps in week 12, LaPorta is the clear no.3 passing option for Goff. While back-end Brock Wright hasn't been too much of a threat yards wise, he's been a red zone option time-to-time for Goff.

Having missed one game with injury, the tight end's production has only been increasing. In fact, since week 8 vs the Titans, we've seen LaPorta average 5.2 targets and 40.2 average yards in that span. One of the top tight ends in yards per receptions (13.8), he's become one of Goff's middle of the field favorites.

Soaring over 16.5 longest reception in all games but two, this is a player prop that's hard to resist. Especially vs a Bears team that gives up the 10th most yards to tight ends (58.18).

The Bears Don't Matchup Well Against Tight Ends

In a solid matchup with that right defensive line, we've seen several tight ends cook Chicago this season. That includes both receiving yards, and longest reception.

This season:

Are all tight ends that have had success against the Bears this season. Some outperforming some WR1s, the trend I'm looking for here is longest reception.

Final NFL Thanksgiving Bears vs Lions Best Bet and Prediction: Sam LaPorta O 16.5 Longest Reception (-114 FanDuel)

If you're tailing my best bets and player props, I do believe this line is set too low. While the Lions struggled as a whole offensively last week vs the Colts, that shouldn't happen today. Aside from the longest reception of 19 yards, LaPorta hasn't even come close to the 16.5 prop mark.

Tallying 37 vs the Texans, 24 vs the Titans, 25 against the Vikings, and 52 in Dallas, I'm confident Sam LaPorta will complete a 16.5 longest reception. 

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