NFL Wild Card Player Props: The 3 Best NFL Props for Saturday January 11

The NFL playoffs have arrived, and we have two exciting AFC matchups today! The no. 4 Houston Texans (10-7, 5-3 home) will host the no. 5 Los Angeles Chargers (11-6, 6-3 away) at home for the early showdown. In an AFC North clash, the no. 3 Baltimore Ravens (12-5, 6-2 home) will host division rival no. 6 Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7, 5-4 away) in Baltimore.

 (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)

It's an exciting time of the year for bettors, and the books have blessed us with football on a Saturday.

After finishing the season strong, the Chargers proved they remain an elite defensive squad. The Chargers offense has ignited with three straight victories over the Broncos, Patriots, and Raiders. With a +54 point differential over that time span, the Texans will have a tall task ahead of them.

An up-and-down year filled with injuries, the Texans rose atop the AFC South with a 10-7 record. Having finished the season 1-3 since week 15, Houston had an unforgiving schedule. After getting trampled by the Chiefs 27-19, the Ravens dominated the Texans 31-2. One of the better defensive teams in the NFL, can the Texans cool off Justin Herbert and company?

4-3 in the last head-to-head matchups, the Charges are 5-2 ATS. That said, the Texans are 2-1 vs the Chargers since 2019. With complete roster overhauls on both sides,  DeMeco Ryans and Jim Harbaugh will lead their respective teams. Both defensive mastermind head coaches, just how close will this matchup be?

NFL Odds Are Current As Of January 10 AT 9 A.M. ET

+3 point spread underdogs at home, the Texans are now the long shot team for the third straight matchup. This includes their last matchup vs the Chargers as +5.5 underdogs back in 2022.

Up nearly 12 units as a whole this week with sports betting, I am looking to cash everyone out for this NFL Wild Card weekend! Coming off an 8 unit banger in December, let's stay hot betting on the NFL!

If you're tailing my picks, I placed all of my bets as straight wagers. With kick-off slated for 4:30 p.m. ET, the Texans vs Chargers matchup will air on CBS/Paramount.

For the late night contest, the Steelers and Ravens will air on Prime Video, kicking-off at 8 p.m. ET.

Let's take a look and discuss my three best player prop bets for the Saturday, January 11 NFL Wild Card matchups. I've provided a unique mix of best bets placed in FanDuel and DraftKings Sportsbook.

Are you in search of further NFL sports betting promotions? We have compiled a list of the best sports betting offers here. 

NFL Wild Card Best Prop Bets for Saturday, January 11

NFL Player Prop Bet #1: Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry 2024-2025 Season Stats

GP: 17  | Carries: 325 | Rushing Yards: 1,921 : Receiving Yards: 193 | Targets: 22 | Rush Avg: 5.9 | Rush TD: 16 | Rec TD: 2 | Rush Long: 87 | First Down: 94

• Over 19.5 longest rush (-113 FanDuel)
• Over 4.5 receiving yards (-113 FanDuel)

My first player prop bet for NFL Wild Card weekend, I placed one unit on Ravens running back Derrick Henry to tally over 19.5 longest rush, and to record over 4.5 receiving yards.

In a must win playoff game, there's no player I trust more than Henry. While the move to Baltimore was frightening for some bettors, Henry was just 84 yards shy of the rushing title won by Saquon Barkley. A duo catalyst for the Ravens offense alongside Lamar Jackson, expect Henry to be heavily utilized Saturday. Especially given this wild card matchup is against an AFC divisional rival.

Once again, the Steelers have proven to be one of the most elite teams on the defensive end. Allowing the 6th fewest rushing yards per game (98.7), I chose to veer away from Henry's rushing yards prop. With high winds expected, there may be a chance of snow in Baltimore. For this reason, I would expect the Ravens to pound the ball on the ground.

Derrick Henry Rushed For Nearly 450 Yards Over The Last Three Weeks

Given Henry rushed for nearly 450 yards over the final three weeks, it's tough to fade the overall rush yards. Topping 138+ yards in that span, he gets a tough defense in the Steelers. While I'm not saying Henry isn't capable, we simply don't know how John Harbaugh will run the offense. With receiver Zay Flowers out with injury, it opens up a unique game plan for the Ravens.

The reason why I love the longest rush and receiving yards is the fact Henry destroyed the Steelers for 162 rushing yards back on December 21. Eclipsing over 100 rushing yards in one of three past matchups vs Pittsburgh, 19.5 longest rush is a tad disrespectful.

• We are talking about one of the strongest, well built backs in the NFL.

Can Anyone Truly Stop Derrick Henry?

Soaring well over this prop in two matchups vs the Steelers this season, Henry rushed for a long 31 yards on November 17, and 44 yards in their last outing. Surprisingly 17th in rush EPA, the Steelers do have a beast of a defensive and linebacker core. However, can anyone truly stop Derrick Henry?

After all, the Ravens have one of the premier offensive lines in the NFL. This not only includes sack protection for Jackson, but excellent block protection for Henry as well. With that said, the Ravens finished 74 %, or third in the NFL in run block win rate (RBWR).

In fact in their last matchup, Henry tallied several long runs in the first quarter alone. Breaking free up the middle, it was a field day for the back. Although intercepted by the Steelers, Henrys' monumental 44 yard rush came early in the 4th quarter. Prior to the play, the back rushed for 14 and 16 yards.

There's no doubt in my mind Henry will soar over 19.5 longest rush. Given the Ravens run on 47.9 % of their plays, Henry tallied three consecutive weeks with 19+ longest rush. Hitting over this total in 13/17 games this season, it's safe to say I'm confident in this play.

• With a longest rush average of 34 yards, no. 22 averaged the best average of 5.9 yards per carry of his career.

In a span of 18 games, Henry led the NFL with 19 20+ rushes, and recorded five 40+ rushes.

• With a longest rush of 87, Henry has a 20.3 broken tackle percentage. With as many touches per game plus averaging 3.4 yards after contact, this is a full send.

Final Wild Card NFL Prop bet Prediction: Derrick Henry Over 19.5 Longest Reception (-113 FanDuel) + Over 4.5 Receiving Yards (-113 FanDuel)

Not one receiver was able to eclipse 19.5 longest rush over the last three weeks vs Pittsburgh, and there's been a longest rush of 20 yards in only six games. With that information, Henry accounted for the over in two of those games. With that said, throw in Derrick Henry to record over 4.5 receiving yards. This line is simply too low, especially for a running back who's the hit the over in four of the last five games.

Not known as a receiving back, Henry recorded 27 receiving yards in their last head-to-head matchup. Averaging 24.25 yards through the ai over the last five games, expect the Steelers to put a ton of pressure on the Ravens. This may very well be a factor with Flowers out.

• My final prop bet for Wild Card weekend, give me Derrick Henry to record over 4.5 receiving yards and over 19.5 longest rush.

NFL Player Prop Bet #2: George Pickens

George Pickens 2024- 2025 Season Stats

GP: 14  | Receiving TD: 3 | Targets: 103 | Rec Yards: 900| Average: 15.3 | Long: 44 | First Down: 37

• Over 23.5 longest reception (-120 FanDuel)

My second prop bet for NFL Wild Card weekend, I placed one unit on Steelers receiver George Pickens to record over 23.5 longest reception vs the Ravens.

I know Pickens has had quite the tumultuous season with the Steelers. Limited to 14 games on the season, Pickens managed to tally 900 receiving yards. Having missed three games with a hamstring injury, the wideout is active for Saturday.

By shipping Diontae Johnson out of the Steel City, Pickens has emerged as the no.1 wideout.  Given Mike Tomlin is sticking with Russell Wilson under center, I do believe that has been a monumental factor in Pickens production. However, I know Pickens capability to get down field.

Pickens yards per catch isn't stunning at 15.8, in fact the receiver is down in production. However, there's great news for the wideout. Although the Ravens give up only 21 points per game, they allow 244.1 passing yards per game. Having allowed the fourth most receiving yards to wideouts with 170.5 per game, this is great news for my player prop.

It's no secret the Steelers offense struggles at times, and if you've read my articles, I'm big on longest reception bets. Although Pickens has bouts of chaos and drops, how can we forget that 86 yard touchdown bomb against the Bengals this season? If opposite of Brandon Stephons, Pickens should have a better matchup.

Why George Pickens Can Step Up As The No.1 Wideout For the Steelers

Now is the time for Pickens to show the Steelers why he's the no.1 wideout. With a weaker receiving core, Pickens must step up Saturday, which I am banking on.

Soaring over 23.5 longest reception in four of five games, Pickens shortest reception was 31 vs the Browns. While the wideout did lay an egg for 0 yards on 6 targets vs the Bengals last week, I'm confident no. 14 will bounce back.

• Torching the Steelers for an average of 27 yards over their last five head-to-head matchups, I do believe this line is set too low.

Overall, am I truly going to fade a receiver who's hit the over on the prop in 8/9 last games? With that said, Pickens longest reception hasn't remotely come close to the 23.5 prop line set for Saturday. With an average 36 longest reception over that span, I wonder why the line is set low?

• In a must win playoff game, the Ravens don't have the best track record against receivers.

In fact, the Ravens have allowed multiple receivers to record over 23.5 longest reception in all games but two on the season. While we can't forget Ja'Marr Chase torched the secondary for a 70 yard bomb, Texans receiver Nico Collins got open for 30 yards. To put things into perspective the Texans were defeated 31-2 that game.

Final Wild Card NFL Prop bet Prediction: George Pickens Over 23.5 Longest Reception (-120 FanDuel)

Hauling in a 37 longest reception last matchup vs the Ravens, Pickens is known as a player that can make the home run plays down the field. Given he's averaging 22 % of the teams targets, Pickens averaged 13.1 average depth of target yards this season. Having most success lined up left outside, Pickens should have a decent matchup here.

We saw a month ago where Pickens scorched Brandon Stephens for a 37 yard gain. I'm ready for another matchup between these two on Saturday.

A strong bet, Pickens has tallied 25+ longest receptions in 11/14 games on the season. We are talking about the same Ravens team who dominated the Browns, yet allowed Jerry Jeudy (30) and Elijah Moore (23) to record long receptions.

• My second player prop bet for Saturday, I'm taking Steelers receiver George Pickens to record over 23.5 longest reception as one of my best bets for NFL Wild Card weekend.

NFL Player Prop Bet #3: Nico Collins

Nico Collins 2024-2025 Season Stats

GP: 12  | Receiving TD: 7 | Targets: 99| Rec Yards: 1,006 | Average: 14.8 | Long: 67 | First Down: 48

• Over 6.5 receptions (+100 DraftKings)

My third player prop for NFL Wild Card weekend, I placed one unit on Texans receiver Nico Collins to record over 6.5 receptions vs. the Chargers.

To put it blunt, Collins is truly the last one standing in the receiver core. Losing Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell to season ending injuries was tough news for CJ Stroud and company. Even John Metcchie III is questionable to suit up with a shoulder injury.

Aside from Collins, Metchie III has yet to clear 300 receiving yards. While that was expected before injuries, Robert Woods and tight end Dalton Schultz are the next players up. While the Texans signed veteran receiver Diontae Johnson, it's unclear if or how DeMeco Ryans will utilize the wideout. After a brief stint with the Ravens, Johnson's utility is questionable.

I do expect the Chargers to play tough defense, especially given Los Angeles allows the least amount of points scored in the NFL (17.7). Allowing nearly 150 yards to receivers, the Chargers give up 11.2 receptions to wideouts. While Jim Harbaugh has clearly transferred his defensive mindset from the Michigan days, Collins has to step up.

Can Nico Collins Carry The Offense Amid Injuries?

For plus money, Collins exceeded over 6.5 receptions just four times this season. In fact, the wideout tallied 8 (Bears), 12, 8 (Jaguars), and 7 (Chiefs). With 68 total receptions on the year, that's an average of 5.6 per game. We have to remember, Collins missed several games and was placed on injured reserve with a hamstring injury.

Although these two teams meet for the first time this season, we've witnessing greatness in front of our eyes, and that's the emergence with Nico Collins. Unable to eclipse 7 receptions without Dell and Diggs in the lineup, this is a must win. Leading the way with five receptions for the Texans last week, Collins leads all Texans receivers with 68.

The amount of talent Collin's possesses is a given. Projected opposite of Kristian Fulton, the wideout will have his work cut out for him. With that said, let's look at the matchup. We're talking about a Chargers secondary that's allowed:

• Jakobi Meyers (9)
• Mike Evans (9)
• Drake London (9)
• Tee Higgins (9)
• Jerry Jeudy (7)

All of these receivers to record well over 7+ receptions since week 9. 5th in drop back EPA, Stroud may not have much time in the pocket. However, I trust the quarterbacks connection with Collins.

Final Wild Card NFL Prop bet Prediction: Nico Collins Over 6.5 Receptions (+100 DraftKings)

Given Collins has a decent catch rate, the wideout was targeted on 28.2 % of the routes. Averaging more than 18 % of the team targets, Collins only averaged 18 % of the snaps in week 18. With that, the receiver still managed to haul in five receptions. While Xavier Hutchinson's snap count has only increased amid injuries, It's hard to trust him, especially in a must win playoff game.

The only downside to this all? Jim Harbaugh coached Collins at Michigan. With that said, he knows the tendencies and routes of Collins. That's not to say Collins isn't capable of breaking a tough defense. Capturing 10 targets vs the Chiefs, I expect Collins to receive the bulk of the target shares on Saturday.

• It's the perfect script for the Texans, who are underdogs at home this week. Recording over 7+ receptions in 2 of the last five weeks, expect plenty of action from the Michigan standout.With that said, I'm taking Nico Collins to record over 6.5 receptions for plus money.