NRFI Best Bets for Tonight's MLB Games, Thursday August 7, 2025

On Wednesday my Shohei Ohtani player prop came in when the Dodger star not only hit a home run, but also tossed four innings and struck out eight batters. With that successful wager and an extra-base hit in the first inning of the HOU vs MIA game, I finished up $453 last night.

Tonight I have three No Runs First Inning picks for baseball bettors. Scroll below to find the picks and odds from BetMGM Sportsbook.

(Photo by Mark Cunningham/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

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Reds at Pirates, NRFI: -145

In his remarkable 2025 season, Paul Skenes has cemented his status as the ace of the Pittsburgh Pirates and one of baseball's most dominant pitchers. His brilliance was showcased on a national stage when he was handed the ball to start the All-Star Game, a testament to his first-half performance.

Throughout the year, he has maintained an ERA hovering around a phenomenal 2.00, baffling hitters with his triple-digit fastball and devastating slider.

That's the reason (and not because he's dating Livvy Dunne) that Skenes is the subject of my top NRFI MLB prop bet for Thursday's games.

At just 23 years old, Skenes’ early career has been historically great

Through his first 46 major league starts, he has compiled an adjusted ERA+ of more than 200, meaning he has been twice as effective as the league-average hurler.

This sustained excellence has unfortunately revived familiar speculation in Pittsburgh about whether the Pirates can afford to keep him, or if he will ultimately be traded to a contender before reaching free agency.

Tonight, Skenes takes the mound against the Cincinnati Reds, a team he has thoroughly dismantled

In his three career starts against them last season, Skenes was a perfect 3-0 with a microscopic 0.53 ERA, racking up 25 strikeouts against only two walks in 17 masterful innings.

WAGER: $145 on No Runs to score in the First Inning at -145. Which means you win $100 if zero runs score in the Reds vs Pirates game tonight in the Steel City.

BONUS ODDS: Oddsmakers list Skenes as the favorite to win the National League Cy Young Award (-210 from BetMGM). Your $50 winning bet on the Bucs' ace would net you $105. The next closest in odds is Philly pitcher Zack Wheeler at +175.

White Sox at Mariners, NRFI: -130

I'm back at the well for another prop bet in this series between the sinking ChiSox and the soaring M's. Tonight, I like NO RUNS in the first inning, in light of the pitching matchup: Shane Smith vs Logan Gilbert.

Those names may sound like an advertising firm (Shane, Smith, Logan, & Gilbert now with a new media campaign for Snickers, for example), but let's pretend it's Mark Buehrle vs Felix Hernández from about 20 years ago.

The M's and Sox have both been piling on runs in the first inning (seven out of the last 18 first innings over nine combined games), which is why I like a shutout tonight in the opening frame.

WAGER: $130 bet to win $100 should there be a scoreless first inning for both teams.

Miami at Atlanta, NRFI: -110

Tonight’s National League East clash between the Miami Marlins and Atlanta Braves presents a fascinating pitching matchup that points towards a quiet first inning.

On the mound for Miami is their young phenom, Eury Pérez, while Atlanta counters with the seasoned veteran, Carlos Carrasco, creating a classic battle of youth versus experience.

Statistically, the case for a scoreless opening frame is compelling.

Pérez has been stingy this season, boasting a 2.70 ERA and a sterling 0.94 WHIP

While the Braves lineup is always a threat, they rank a middling 16th in the majors in first-inning runs. Pérez’s electric stuff is more than capable of navigating the top of Atlanta’s order, despite some struggles against them early in his career.

He has matured into a top-tier starter, and his current form suggests he can prevent an early ambush

On the other side, while Carlos Carrasco’s overall 2025 numbers (5.68 ERA) are underwhelming, he has historically handled the Marlins effectively, posting a solid 3.38 career ERA against them over 12 appearances.

He understands how to attack their hitters. Furthermore, the Marlins offense has been slow to start games, ranking 18th in first-inning runs scored.

This combination of Carrasco’s matchup-specific success and Miami’s lack of early-game firepower strongly suggests he can put up a zero in the first. With both offenses being slow starters and each pitcher holding a distinct advantage, expect no runs to cross the plate in the first inning.

WAGER: Odds from BetMGM sports betting app are -110 for a scoreless first inning (MIA @ ATL).