Best NRFI Bets Today
We're off and running on a weekend full of exciting baseball, and there's no better way to keep the fun going than betting on the No Runs in the First Inning.
(Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)
Today's NRFI picks will feature a collection of pitchers with excellent results in the first innings of games and should be working in very low-scoring affairs. I'll be targeting the Dodgers' newest arm, two reliable hurlers in Minnesota and going back to an Under bettor's dream which is a game played in T-Mobile Park.
Let's get into the games and give out some MLB NRFI predictions for Saturday, August 3.
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MLB NRFI Prediction for White Sox vs Twins
In a tragic twist, it appears Bailey Ober is once again heading for a good outing.
The right-hander isn't one of my favorites given his heavy fly-ball approach, one which can fall short in Minnesota which does reward teams that aim to hit the ball out of the park.
The big thing here, however, is that the White Sox remain one of the worst offenses in baseball with a 66 wRC+ over the last two weeks and have failed to capitalize when an opposing pitcher allows fly balls.
- The White Sox may be faring better against fly-ballers this year, but in that split they have a league-worst .630 OPS and are tied for the fewest homers with 37.
That should really work in Ober's favor, and when you factor in that the right-hander has been in the top quarter of the league in strikeout rate he should have fewer balls coming back in play against a strikeout-happy White Sox team.
Chicago has gone a stunning 66-46 to the NRFI this season, and while its opponent here has been one of the better teams in the league at scoring in the first it'll have to get to the talented Garrett Crochet.
- The lefty will see a Twins team that's fallen into a bit of a rut offensively with a wRC+ that falls 21st over the last two weeks and while Minnesota is fifth in that category to right-handers it is 10th against southpaws.
Crochet continues to shove with an elite .195 Expected Batting Average and one of the top strikeout rates around at 34.6%, putting him in a good position against a Twins team that has fallen into a miniature slump and has struck out at a much-more troubling rate lately.
Back Crochet to move to 20-3 to the NRFI.
NRFI Prediction: White Sox vs Twins NRFI (-135 at
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MLB NRFI Prediction for Dodgers vs A's
It can be a surprisingly tough task to fade the A's, a team which can hit for power and has limited their strikeout of late, but luckily for the Dodgers they'll have deadline acquisition Jack Flaherty making his debut with the team on Saturday night.
- Flaherty has pitched well to a 43.5% ground ball rate this year which should help mitigate a lot of the risk brought on by a team full of sluggers, and with a hard-hit rate which is firmly better than average and took a nice dive in July I don't anticipate him surrendering a big blow in the first inning.
- The right-hander now owns a handsome .361 Expected Slugging Percentage to come in almost 40 points under the league average and with a 14-4 record to the NRFI this year should find a way through a tough top of the order.
The other part of the equation is a bit easier for me, considering this Dodgers team is now down Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts at the top of the order on top of a long injury to Max Muncy.
- Shohei Ohtani has struggled to power the top of the order all by his lonesome, and he's received no help from Will Smith who's hitting just .083 over the last two weeks.
I expect Mitch Spence, who stands 10-3 to the NRFI in his own right, to match Flaherty in the first with a perfectly league-average profile which has steadied in recent weeks.
NRFI Prediction: Dodgers vs A's NRFI (-130 at BetMGM)
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MLB NRFI Prediction for Phillies vs Mariners
We weren't so fortunate to hit the NRFI in a very profitable spot in Seattle on Friday, but that won't deter me from going back to the well on Saturday.
We saw the Phillies continue to get it going at the plate, being held scoreless until a two-run ninth, and the story should remain the same tonight. Kyle Schwarber continues to get on base via the walk, but behind him Bryce Harper and Trea Turner are hitting a combined .122 in the last two weeks with just 12 hits in 98 at-bats.
- Bryce Miller may technically represent the weakest link in arguably the best rotation in baseball, but he's gone 18-3 to the NRFI this year and is coming off a red-hot month of July which saw him post a 1.80 ERA in four starts.
- Miller's ability to limit walks, issuing just one free pass in July, should help him work around Schwarber at the top of the order while his improving xBA, which hit .245 in July, does the trick against a struggling Phillies order.
Philly and Seattle are both teams that have hit the ball in the air at a top-10 clip over the last two weeks, making conditions for offense at the unfriendly T-Mobile Park quite poor.
On top of that, the Mariners are a tick worse against left-handers and are have lost leadoff man J.P. Crawford to injury.
Allard is a fly-ball arm like Miller, too, which should mean we see plenty of flyouts in the first inning and a slow beginning to this game.
NRFI Prediction: Phillies vs Mariners NRFI (-105 at BetMGM)
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