Best NRFI Bets Today
It's a Friday in the major leagues, and as is tradition around here that means it's time we break down the most exciting bet in baseball -- No Runs in the First Inning.
(Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Today's NRFI picks will begin in Pittsburgh where two cold offenses will meet some starters who have been excellent in the first inning of ballgames, and after that we'll stay on the East coast with a potential pitcher's duel looming in Cleveland.
To take us home, we'll head back to Seattle where oddsmakers are offering us a generous price on one of the friendliest NRFI spots in baseball.
Let's get into the games and give out some MLB NRFI predictions for Friday, August 2.
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MLB NRFI Prediction for Diamondbacks vs Pirates
The Diamondbacks have begun to hit the ball a bit better over the last two weeks, headed by an excellent stretch from Ketel Marte. With that said, leadoff man Corbin Carroll continues to slump, hitting just .237, and Friday's starter should pose plenty of problems for a team which is attempting to hit for power.
- Luis L. Ortiz gets the ball here for Pittsburgh amidst an effective year which has seen him post a .233 Expected Batting Average across 78 2/3 innings, and he's been especially impressive with a .388 Expected Slugging given his middling ground-ball rate.
- The Pirates righty has worked a scoreless first in all five of his starts this season, and he'll be opposed by an arm in Brandon Pfaadt who's gone 15-6 to the NRFI in 2024.
Pfaadt will draw the friendlier of the two matchups against a Pirates team ranked in the bottom third of the league in wRC+ over the last two weeks and one which has really been driven by the middle and bottom of the order with Yasmani Grandal, Joey Bart and Michael A. Taylor producing some good results.
Pittsburgh's not getting enough from Andrew McCutchen and Bryan Reynolds at the moment for me to believe in this team against Pfaadt, who's once again shown improvement with every month he's worked in the majors this year in a reprise of his rookie campaign.
I expect this offense to fall short in the first inning and for Ortiz to quiet down some of Arizona's power bats.
NRFI Prediction: Diamondbacks vs Pirates NRFI (-120 at
BetMGM)
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MLB NRFI Prediction for Orioles vs Guardians
This matchup should be friendly for NRFI bettors on Friday with two pitchers who have made fast starts to outings opposing two offenses who have begun games in a slow manner.
- The Guardians may sit just 57-51 to the NRFI this yar, but they'll have to score on Dean Kremer -- a pitcher who's gone 13-1 to the NRFI this year and has cashed it in three straight starts.
- Baltimore, meanwhile, has hit the NRFI in 63 of its 110 games and meets Carlos Carrasco, who's a very reasonable 13-6 to the NRFI this year.
Cleveland has fallen into a funk over the last two weeks with a poor 87 wRC+ and owns a much cooler .238 average to fly-ball pitchers like Kremer as opposed to a .257 average in the reverse split.
Things have picked up for the Orioles, meanwhile, but they'll now head on the road where they are cashing the NRFI in 67% of games to rank third in baseball. This is the time to fade the Orioles in the first inning after cashing the YRFI in five straight.
NRFI Prediction: Orioles vs Guardians NRFI (+100 at DraftKings)
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MLB NRFI Prediction for Phillies vs Mariners
The NRFI has cashed in a whopping 74% of games at T-Mobile Park, going a handsome 40-14 this year, and on the hill will be Tyler Phillips and Bryan Woo -- two arms with a combined 12-2 NRFI record this year.
The Phillies have fallen off a cliff offensively in the last two weeks with a 22nd-ranked wRC+ and the top of this order has failed to do much around slugging the occasional home run.
- Kyle Schwarber is hitting just .220 over this span, and while he's hit for power and walked these are two things that Woo has been able to limit well in his brief 2024 season.
- Bryce Harper is hitting just .115 while Trea Turner is .167, creating an even-more favorable beginning to this one for Woo.
The Mariners righty has begun to pitch to more contact on the ground this year as a result of a diminished strikeout rate, which may eventually tilt this game in the Phillies' favor.
With that said, it should be a grind for the road side which loves to put the ball in the air and has survived solely off power in the last two weeks.
Seattle, meanwhile, leads the league in fly-ball rate in the last two weeks around a batting average that's just slightly above the Mendoza Line and the rookie Phillips has exhibited a great deal of competence in pitching to contact across Triple-A and the big leagues this year.
There's volatility with Woo and uncertainty with Phillips which has led oddsmakers to be ever-so-skeptical here. I just don't see anything from these offenses that leads me to believe we're set to break a trend that's been incredibly profitable this year.
NRFI Prediction: Phillies vs Mariners NRFI (-113 at FanDuel)
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