Best NRFI Bets Today: The Games to Watch on Monday, July 22

Best NRFI Bets Today

We've got a loaded slate to bet on this Monday in baseball, and with that it's time to take a look at some lines on the No Run in the First Inning across the bigs.

(Photo by Barry Chin/The Boston Globe via Getty Images)

I'm somewhat surprised to see the talented Cole Ragans being offered to us at such a great price against a talented young righty, and I'm also a big believer in two other pitching matchups -- including one at hitter-friendly Coors Field.

Let's get into those games and give out some MLB NRFI predictions for Monday, July 22.

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MLB NRFI Prediction for White Sox vs Rangers

Erick Fedde may not be a household name, and even dedicated fans of the game don't even understand how effective this man has been on the hill in 2024.

• The fact is, Fedde's pitched to a brilliant 2.99 ERA through 19 starts and has been exceptional in rolling u ground balls and pitching well to contact.

The Rangers have struggled mightily all year, and July has been no different as they've ranked 19th in wRC+ with a middling .240 average.

• That makes it hard to see runs coming in bunches against an effective ground-baller, particularly given Texas is a heavy fly-ball team.

Their top of the order is no exception, and amidst a tough season offensively Texas is now 52-47 to the NRFI and 30-18 at home. Fedde owns a 1.89 ERA in the first inning of games so far, and his counterpart Michael Lorenzen has posted a 2.25 ERA in the split.

The righty will have a significantly easier task here against a White Sox team that has been the very worst in baseball this month with a 73 wRC+ and arguably the worst around all year. At 64-37 to the NRFI in their own right, it would seem they'll match the zero posted by their hurler on Monday.

NRFI Prediction: White Sox vs Rangers NRFI (-130 at DraftKings)

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MLB NRFI Prediction for Diamondbacks vs Royals

It's always hard to get a read on a rookie, but it would seem for all the world that Yilber Diaz has the talent to be a high-end starting pitcher for the Diamondbacks.

• He's pumped in a fastball that averages over 96 mph, limited walks and barrels and posted a neat-and-tidy 1.50 ERA to this point in the season.
• He'll now gear up to face a Royals team which is ranked 22nd in wRC+ this month despite a high .264 average -- a perfect setting Diaz to have success given his excellence in limiting power and generating swings and misses.

The Royals are a stellar 57-43 to the NRFI this year and around Bobby Witt Jr. have been awful at the top of the order. Leadoff hitter Adam Frazier is hitting just .200 this year and .143 in July while Vinnie Pasquantino has struggled to a .549 OPS in July.

I believe in Diaz here, and I definitely believe in Cole Ragans. The lefty is fresh off his first All-Star nod thanks to a 3.16 ERA in the first half which has come along with expected numbers that are well better than the league average.

Best of all, Ragans is an exceptional strikeout arm which should jive with a few Arizona batters who have struggled for contact atop the order. Corbin Carroll has been missing more than normal and Randal Grichuk has struck out in almost 30% of plate appearances this month.

Arizona's the scarier element here, but Ragans is more than capable of blanking this team in the first with his talent before Diaz follows his lead.

NRFI Prediction: Diamondbacks vs Royals NRFI (-115 at DraftKings)

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MLB NRFI Prediction for Red Sox vs Rockies

This will be a meeting between two ground ball pitchers inside a glorious hitter's park, and with that I think runs will surprisingly be hard to come by.

We'll begin with Austin Gomber for the home side, a pitcher who has owned a 3.64 ERA at Coors Field this year and draws a Red Sox team that has been significantly worse against lefties this year with a 40-point gap in Isolated Power and a six-point drop in strikeout rate.

• Boston is just 21st in wRC+ against lefties, and while Tyler O'Neill could pose some issues, Jarren Duran owns just a .679 OPS in this split while Rafael Devers is at .644.
• The Red Sox have failed to score a run in 69.39% of first innings, and without the benefit of fly balls against Gomber should struggle to put together an early rally.

Then, there's Tanner Houck -- ranked in the 92nd percentile of ground-ball rate -- who owns a 0.95 ERA in the first inning and gets a Rockies team that is lost when it can't hit for power.

Houck's limited slugging all season long, carrying an xSLG well below the league average, which is why even despite a poor NRFI record the Rockies should be in a tough spot here.

NRFI Prediction: Red Sox vs Rockies NRFI (-105 at DraftKings)