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San Diego State Final Four Predictions

Publish Date: 03/29/2023
Fact checked by: Allan Howe

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March Madness has more than lived up to its name this year, bringing us devastating upsets and incredible Cinderella stories galore.

Now we’re in the heat of the home stretch: the Final Four. The 5-seed San Diego State Aztecs play the 9-seed Florida Atlantic University Owls in a semifinal match-up on April 1. Rest assured, this is no joke.

Let’s take a closer look at this game and see if San Diego State can earn a spot in the national championship.

San Diego State: Road To The Final Four

The Aztecs first met the Charleston Cougars, earning a first-round victory by six points.

In the round of 32, the Aztecs faced the Furman Paladins following the latter’s shocking upset of Virginia by one point in the first round. San Diego State handily put the Paladins to bed, 75-52.

Then the Aztecs turned their heads to the Alabama Crimson Tide, undoubtedly their fiercest opponent yet. The 1-seed Crimson Tide blazed their way to the Sweet Sixteen meetup with the Aztecs. They trounced Texas A&M-CC 96 to 75, then demolished the Maryland Terrapins in a 73-51 victory. And yet, the Aztecs crush the Crimson Tide’s dreams of making the Elite Eight with a 71-64 win.

In the Sweet Sixteen, San Diego State sparred with the Creighton Bluejays. This was the Aztecs’ closest game yet, but they eked out a win by one point in a nail-biter.

Now the Aztecs look to take down the Florida Atlantic Owls in a Final Four bout.

San Diego State vs. Florida Atlantic University Preview

Here’s a look at the San Diego State odds from two major sportsbooks.

Latest Odds by BetRivers
  • Moneyline: FL Atlantic +115 / San Diego State -138
  • Spread: FL Atlantic -110 / San Diego State -110
  • Total: FL Atlantic -105 / San Diego State -105
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Latest Odds by FanDuel
  • Moneyline: FL Atlantic +112 / San Diego State -134
  • Spread: Florida Atlantic +1.5 (-102) / San Diego State -1.5 (-120)
  • Totals: Over/Under 131.5 (-110/-110)
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San Diego State is the favorite to win at both sportsbooks, but it’s really close. That adds up, considering both teams had to grind through at least one nailbiter to earn their spot in the Final Four. a 5- and 9-seed playing in the March Madness semifinals is representative of a surprising and twist-filled tournament.

I like San Diego State’s chances here. The Aztecs have shown they can rise to a superior team’s abilities and emerge on the other side with the win. They've also shown they can take down a lesser team without too much worry over a last-minute buzzer-beater. Expect this game to be close. Still, I like the San Diego State moneyline here, as it carries some reasonable value.

Sizing Up Florida Atlantic University

San Diego State’s opponent has defied expectations at every turn.

The FAU Owls took down Memphis by one point in the first round. Purdue’s loss to Fairleigh Dickinson University paved FAU’s pathway to the Sweet Sixteen. The Owls beat Fairleigh Dickinson by eight points and advanced to the Sweet Sixteen where they faced Tennessee. The Owls took down the Volunteers by seven points.

In the Elite Eight, FAU played 3-seed Kansas State, the Owls’ highest-ranked opponent yet. Kansas State kept things close, but FAU came out with yet another win, this one by a margin of three points.

Both teams have defeated higher- and lower-ranked opponents, making this match-up particularly intriguing. Look for FAU to keep it close (I’d avoid the spread here), even if we expect San Diego State to take home the win and earn a place in the championship game on April 3.

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