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This Former MVP has Excellent Odds to be MLB Home Run Leader

Publish Date: Sep 08, 2025
Fact checked by: Sara Jane Gamelli
Key Points
  • Cal Raleigh of Mariners is favorite to win MLB Home Run Title
  • Kyle Schwarber and Shohei Ohtani are in pursuit of home run lead
  • Ohtani seeks third straight MVP, trails Raleigh by 5 HR

It can be tempting to ignore futures bets late in the regular season. But MLB futures are providing some interesting opportunities for baseball bettors.

The MLB Home Run Leader odds reveal a hit hitter and former MVP has a chance to deliver a nice payout.

Shohei Ohtani, Getty Images

Two-time defending MVP Shohei Ohtani is +390 to be Major League Baseball's top home run hitter. On Sunday, Ohtani hit a pair of home runs, bringing his total to 48.

But the American League home run leader, who could win his first MVP award this season, has a lead over Shohei that could be difficult to overcome.

Odds cited in this article are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

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Shohei Ohtani: +390 to Lead MLB in Home Runs

There are three reasons Ohtani can be seen as a favorite to catch Raleigh and win the MLB Home Run title:

  • Ohtani hits leadoff, which means he gets more plate appearances per game.
  • Shohei is a more talented all-around hitter than Cal Raleigh or Kyle Schwarber, his competition for the HR crown.
  • Ohtani has better protection in the lineup. If they have to, opposing pitchers can pitch around Raleigh and face Julio Rodriguez. Yes, J-Rod is a tough hitter, but he's not as dangerous as the man who follows Ohtani: former MVP Mookie Betts.

Kyle Schwarber: +300 to Lead Majors in Home Runs

Let's not sleep on Schwarber, who has Bryce Harper hitting behind him in the dangerous Phillies' lineup. Schwarber also gets to concentrate solely on hitting: he's a designated hitter. In contrast, Ohtani is pitching every fifth or sixth day.

Schwarber won 2022 HR title

Schwarber already has a home run crown to his credit: in 2022 when he led the NL. He currently leads his league again, but Ohtani is only one home run back.

The Phillies have a nice lead in the NL East, which could work against Schwarber. He may get a few days off or get pitched around when games mean nothing.

Cal Raleigh Priced as HR Champ Favorite: -190

The last time a catcher led his league outright in home runs was in 1972. That's when legendary receiver Johnny Bench slugged 40 for the Reds.

But that should change in the American League this season: Raleigh has become the first primary catcher to hit at least 50 jacks. He has a 10-HR lead on Aaron Judge for his league lead.

But Raleigh has a chance to be the MLB home run champ. Odds are listed at -190 from FanDuel. That means you need to wager $190 to win $100.

Seeking record for homers by a switch-hitter

Raleigh can become the all-time switch-hitting HR champ. The current record is 54 homers by Mickey Mantle in 1961.

Working against Cal is the fact that he is crouching behind the plate 4-5 times per week. That's a toll on Raleigh's body, especially late in the summer after nearly 1,000 innings behind the dish this season.

BONUS: Two HR Picks for Monday

Here are a pair of picks for Monday's MLB games.

Ohtani to Hit a Home Run (COL vs LAD): +180

Shohei Ohtani has 5 HR in only 9 games against the Rockies this season. He's basically hitting like Ted Williams against Colorado: 343/439/800 slash line.

Monday's game will be played at Dodger Stadium in Chavez Ravine.

WAGER: $100 for Ohtani to hit a HR against the Rockies on Monday, September 8. If he does, you win $180.

José Ramírez to Hit a Home Run (KCR vs CLE): +330 from FanDuel

I like to find player props for switch-hitters. A good switch-hitter always has a better chance to bounce out of a slump or keep a streak rolling.

Most 20 HR/20 SB seasons in MLB

José Ramírez is one of baseball's most underrated stars. He's sort of Mr. Anonymous. Consider this: since 2020, only Aaron Judge has hit more HR in the American League. Amazingly, among active major leaguers, no one has more 20 HR/20 SB seasons than Ramírez, who has seven, including this season.

WAGER: $50 on José Ramírez to hit a HR against the Royals at home. If the Cleveland star does go yard, your wager is worth $115.

Home Run Leaders for the 2020s

We're more than halfway through the decade. Here's a look at the decade leaderboard in home runs:

  1. Aaron Judge ... 248
  2. Shohei Ohtani ... 233
  3. Kyle Schwarber ... 223
  4. Pete Alonso ... 206
  5. Matt Olson ... 191
  6. Juan Soto ... 182
  7. José Ramírez ... 172
  8. Eugenio Suárez ... 171
  9. Rafael Devers ... 168
  10. Valdimir Guerrero Jr. ... 168

Cal Raleigh ranks 19th in the 2020s, despite having only played since 2021.

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