US Open Women's Final Prediction: Pegula vs Sabalenka Betting Odds and Picks Today Sep 7

We'll crown a brand new US Open champion one way or another on Saturday evening when Jessica Pegula contests her first Grand Slam final in front of a home crowd against last year's runner up, Aryna Sabalenka.

(Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)

Both women have come through some difficult draws to get here, with Sabalenka knocking out this year's Olympic gold medalist, Qinwen Zheng, and Pegula coming through World No. 1 Iga Swiatek in the quarters.

While Sabalenka will enter this one a deserving favorite, Pegula will take solace in the fact that she's beaten the World No. 2 on two occasions and played against an incredible opponent in Thursday's semifinal.

Let's preview the 2024 US Open Women's Final between Jessica Pegula and Aryna Sabalenka below and hand out a prediction and betting pick.

JESSICA PEGULA 2024 US OPEN ANALYSIS

The American was having herself a tough season, dealing with an injury early on which interrupted her clay swing, but ever since returning she's looked the part of one of the very best in the world.

• Pegula got off to a hot start with a title on the grass in Berlin just a week after she earned a clean bill of health, and after a disappointing stay at Wimbledon she went on a run this hardcourt season with a title in Toronto and a trip to the final in Cincinnati.

Pegula would eventually fall to none other than Sabalenka in her second consecutive 1000-level final this summer, but fatigue surely played a large factor there after two three-set battles on the heels of two full weeks of tennis.

She'll be hoping to put forth a better performance here in the final with the promise of better fitness, and while Sabalenka leads the head-to-head 5-2 they've split their last two meetings with Pegula taking Sabalenka down in last season's year-end finals and a tight two-set loss in Cincinnati.

It's also worth noting here that Pegula produced arguably one of the performances of her career on Thursday against a returning semifinalist in Karolina Muchova, who played extraordinary tennis throughout the match. She dug herself out of a set-and-break hole and galvanized energy from the home crowd to turn the match on its head.

ARYNA SABALENKA 2024 US OPEN ANALYSIS

Sabalenka looks as good as ever, moving past Emma Navarro in the semifinals in what was a much more difficult match than she had to have been anticipating.

Navarro threw everything he had at Sabalenka, playing incredible defense, only to fall victim to the Belarusian's overwhelming power.

• Sabalenka's serve has been on fire, and she's managed to remain clean and composed from the back of the court under pressure in a sign of continued growth.

We have to mention here, however, that the big stage has always been unkind to Sabalenka. She's historically struggled in finals of any event, and here at the US Open she's contested four straight cagey semifinals after she was broken serving for Thursday's match.

After dropping a semifinal match to Leylah Fernandez, fumbling away a break lead against Swiatek the year following and barely moving by Madison Keys last season, there are certainly some demons for Sabalenka to exorcise.

• She also lost last year's memorable final as a favorite against Coco Gauff, overcome by the incredible crowd support for the American.

On paper, Sabalenka should be able to claim her first US Open title, but the mental side of the game is always important to take into account -- and it's anyone's guess how Sabalenka will look to start this one.

PEGULA VS SABALENKA US OPEN WOMEN'S FINAL PREDICTION TODAY, SEPTEMBER 7

These two have been evenly-matched over the last few years as Pegula's come into her own and brought her ranking into the top five in the world.

• Sabalenka has taken two of the last three meetings on hardcourts, but in all they've split the four encounters. Even in those two wins for the Belarusian, Pegula pushed hard for a set and lost one 7-5 each time.

I'm surprised to see the total as low as it is here, even if the Over has lost by the hook in two of their last three matches. It's hard to discount the nerves that will be present for Sabalenka, and surely Pegula will give Sabalenka her best stuff after playing at such a high level over the last two rounds.

The return of Pegula can't be ignored here, and her neat groundstrokes have kept her opponents on the back foot and limited offense. I think she's well-suited for this matchup and should negotiate a set at the minimum.

I prefer the safety of the Over and will look to the cheaper price on the game total as opposed to Pegula to win a set.

Best Bet for Pegula vs Sabalenka: Over 21.5 Games (-105 at DraftKings)