We were treated to a thrilling final 12 months ago when Carlos Alcaraz outlasted Novak Djokovic in five sets to capture his first Wimbledon title, and despite the fact that neither man entered this year's tournament as the presumptive favorite, they will meet again in a rematch on Sunday.
(Photo by Mike Hewitt/Getty Images)
Djokovic, the seven-time Wimbledon champion, will be gunning for a fourth win in his last five matches against Alcaraz and a 25th Grand Slam victory. Despite undergoing surgery prior to the championships, putting his status in doubt, he's managed to shake off the concerns and find a way back to this stage.
Alcaraz, meanwhile, has altered parts of his game and played a bit less than his best -- yet he, too, has managed to overcome obstacles to come through some very formidable opponents and move one win away from a successful title defense.
Will we see a repeat of last year's thriller, or might Djokovic have what it takes here to flip the script?
Let's break down the best way to bet the 2024 Wimbledon Final between Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic.
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CARLOS ALCARAZ AT WIMBLEDON 2024
It's hard to say we've seen the best out of Alcaraz over the last month -- which is a crazy thought considering he just won the French Open in June and is just a few sets away from winning a second Grand Slam in as many months.
The Spaniard is now using a platform serve in an effort to shore up one of the weaknesses in his game, and while it should help him in the long run there have been some clear growing pains.
- Alcaraz landed just 57% of his first serves against Daniil Medvedev in Friday's semifinal, marking the third straight match where he's seen that number dip, and he continues to have issues winning points behind his first serve.
Yes, Alcaraz did win 73% of first serve points in his win over Medvedev, but we know that the Russian is vulnerable to the serve-and-volley given his deep return position and that is something Alcaraz took full advantage of.
- The World No. 3 won just 66% of his first serve points against a poor returner in Ugo Humbert and 61% against Tommy Paul, putting his serve in real question here.
It's also not as if Alcaraz been at his strongest from the back of the court. He's practiced questionable shot selection and his unforced error count has been approaching 40 in each of his last three-set matches. He's also made a bad habit of starting his matches off in poor fashion, dropping three of his last four first sets.
NOVAK DJOKOVIC AT WIMBLEDON 2024
We weren't sure we'd even see Djokovic at Wimbledon this year. He underwent surgery to repair a torn meniscus shortly after injuring his knee at Roland Garros, and just eight days before the championships he admitted he was thinking of withdrawing from the field.
Well, against all odds, here Djokovic is in yet another Grand Slam final.
- He hasn't looked 100% when moving around the court, but he's still managed to win a high percentage of points at the net.
- Djokovic also hasn't had the hardest road imaginable, with his opponents all failing to produce any sort of quality, but that -- and a walkover in his quarterfinal match -- have kept him off court and preserved his stamina and health.
The World No. 2 also has the head-to-head working in his favor here. He did fall to Alcaraz at Wimbledon last year, then months later performed at arguably the best level we've seen out of him in years when he took him out in a dramatic Cincinnati Final.
He would go on to dust Alcaraz in straight sets at the year-end finals and has now won three of his last four against the young superstar.
Djokovic could have served better in last year's final, but Alcaraz did well to match his numbers. The two were also incredibly even at the net. This year, there are some signs that we won't see similar numbers in both categories.
CARLOS ALCARAZ VS NOVAK DJOKOVIC WIMBLEDON FINAL PREDICTION
Alcaraz's issues on serve are of grave concern here as he meets the best returner this game has ever known. He's also failed to make an impact at the net in his recent meetings with Djokovic, and the Serb came away with over 80% of those points the last time they squared off.
These two areas are what can -- and ultimately will -- cost him the match from my view.
He's also failed to play the clean brand of tennis that once lifted him to the World No. 1 ranking, and all season long he has gone for far too much from the back of the court, picking out arrogant spots to hit winners.
This sloppy play has crept in late in Grand Slams, and that -- once again -- is not something you want to be looking at when Djokovic is standing on the other side of the net.
I expect the inconsistency on serve to persist here for Alcaraz, and will back Djokovic as a result. I also don't hate taking a swing on him to win the first set, given Alcaraz has come out flat in his last four matches and has been at his worst in terms of limiting errors in them.
Best Bet for Alcaraz vs Djokovic:
Djokovic ML (+135 at
BetMGM)
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