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Wimbledon Women's Final Prediction: Barbora Krejcikova vs Jasmine Paolini Betting Odds and Picks Today July 13

Publish Date: Jul 13, 2024
Fact checked by: Sara Jane Gamelli

We're set to crown a first-time Wimbledon champion on Saturday when Barbora Krejcikova and Jasmine Paolini step to Centre Court at the All England Club amidst career revivals.

(Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

In Krejcikova's case, it's far less surprising. After capturing the French Open and reaching No. 2 in the WTA rankings a few seasons ago, the 28-year-old has found health and form in 2024, utilizing grass to her advantage once again.

Paolini, surely, was never expected to be a contender at this year's Grand Slams. Yet here she is in a second consecutive final, looking for a better result after falling to Iga Swiatek at Roland Garros.

Let's preview the 2024 Wimbledon Women's Final between Barbora Krejcikova and Jasmine Paolini below and hand out a prediction and betting pick.

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BARBORA KREJCIKOVA AT WIMBLEDON 2024 ANALYSIS

The crafty Czech is up to her old tricks once again on grass. After spending years on the doubles scene, where players learn how to return and volley, she was able to break through in the singles ranks years ago by employing these skills to win three titles in 2021 including the French Open. She would follow that up with two titles in each of the past two seasons, but after catching the injury bug this season it's taken her some time to get back to her best.

  • Krejcikova surely has that level now, moving to 13-4 on grass across the past two seasons with a stunning mark of 8-2 this year.

Given the way she can return, volley, defend and slice this is a very formidable player on grass. She took out the presumptive best player in the world on this surface last round when she overcame Elena Rybakina in three sets, and her run to this point has featured big wins over Danielle Collins and Jelena Ostapenko.

  • Krejcikova will be hoping to rely on her experience here having won a Grand Slam in her career, something that Paolini can't claim. Her skills should do the trick, too, as well as her recent form which has all come on the grass.

She also did take the only match these two played which came six years ago in qualifying for the Australian Open.

JASMINE PAOLINI AT WIMBLEDON 2024 ANALYSIS

It's been another storybook run for the Italian, who stunned the world with a run to the final of the French Open this year. While many called it a fluke, the year that Paolini has put together says otherwise.

  • The newest member of the top 10 began her season with a first-ever WTA 500 title in Dubai four months an would go on to continue winning on the clay, eventually lifting her to the best heights in her career. With the run she's now had here, it's hard to chalked this up to a flash in the pan.

She only went 2-1 in the lead-up to Wimbledon, but would go on to top a former Grand Slam champion in Bianca Andreescu, one of the favorites to win this tournament in Madison Key and two tough opponents in Emma Navarro and Donna Vekic.

  • Paolini's ability to find angles and pile up winners make her an exciting watch and a weapon on any surface. Here on grass, she's showcased better returning and net play to put forth two weeks of excellent tennis.

This is a player that is a late bloomer at 28 years old, but she's always had this kind of talent on a tennis court and has claimed some big wins before in her career. She's not to be overlooked.

KREJCIKOVA VS PAOLINI WIMBLEDON WOMEN'S FINAL PREDICTION TODAY JULY 13

After rave reviews for both players, it's unsurprising that I'm having a hard time calling this one. With that, I will look to the over on games played, opting for a bit of a safer route than taking both player to win a set that's only 15 cents better.

  • Grand Slam finals on the women's side over the past five years have historically been tightly contested with nerves coming into play, offering an incredible amount of volatility.

It's only really been when Iga Saiwtek has been involved in the final of the French Open, or a far inferior opponent has battled a top player, that we've seen such a lopsided affair.

Both of these players are incredibly talented and evenly matched, and this should make for one of the best Grand Slam finals in years.

I think Krejcikova has a slight edge here, so the line offered by oddsmakers is just right. I don't think this total, however -- just one game higher than the standard total set by oddsmakers in most WTA matches -- is quite high enough.

Best Bet for Krejcikova vs Paolini: Over 22.5 Games (-110 at DraftKings)

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