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MLB Best Bets for June 25: Subway Series Prediction for Yankees vs Mets on Tuesday

Publish Date: 06/25/2024
Fact checked by: Allan Howe

It's not every day you get a friendly price on a reigning Cy Young Award winner against one of the worst pitchers in baseball, but Tuesday seems to be a glorious day which should bless us with such a spot.

(Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images)

The Subway Series will begin in New York and feature Gerrit Cole going for the Yankees against David Peterson and the Mets, a game which has a terribly mispriced line.

I'll explain why this one shouldn't be favorable to the home team, and I'll continue picking on a pre-season Cy Young candidate whose stock is falling. Then, we'll once again go hunting for a NRFI bet.

Let's get right into it slate and give out our MLB Best Bets for Tuesday, June 25.

Caesars
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MLB Betting Resources:

MLB BEST BET FOR NEW YORK YANKEES VS NEW YORK METS

As I noted earlier, this is about as good as it gets. Here we have Peterson, who has done nothing but populate the bases over his big-league career and has taken a slight step back in his first four outings of 2024.

  • The left-hander posted a gaudy .263 Expected Batting Average and .431 Expected Slugging a year ago, so it's hard to write off his .307 xBA and .465 xSLG this year as the product of a small sample size.
  • In fact, with a strikeout against just 12.2% of the batters he's faced in 22 2/3 innings this year, he's in even more trouble -- and it's unlikely that number gets much higher here with the way the Yankees have limited punchouts all season.

The Yankees have been the second-best team in baseball at hitting ground-ball pitchers with a hit in 29.9% of their at-bats, and with Peterson's long history of walking batters and the Bronx Bombers' expert plate discipline this season, I have a hard time seeing him making it out alive here.

On the other side of the coin, Cole has done nothing to prove he's anything but the pitcher who earned the Cy Young Award last season.

  • He struck out 19 batters in 12 2/3 innings on his rehab assignment and punched out five Orioles in just four innings last week in his return from injury with four baserunners against him.

Cole should be given a longer leash here, and given the Mets have struck out in nearly 26% of their plate appearances over the last week to take a step back in the plate discipline department, I think this should be a highly fruitful night for the Yankees in Queens.

Caesars
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Best Bet: Yankees ML (-140 at Caesars)

Looking to bet this one as the action unfolds? Check out our MLB Live Betting Guide.

MLB BEST BET FOR SEATTLE MARINERS VS TAMPA BAY RAYS

We've documented the issues that Luis Castillo has had this season in prior stories, but if you missed them, the short of it is that Castillo's fastball lacks the quality it had last season.

Dropping by 1 MPH on average, more hitter have been able to get a bat on his fastball, which has produced whiffs at a clip that's over four percentage points off his 2023 mark.

  • That's led to a higher Expected Batting Average and an increase in actual average by well over 30 points, and as the velocity on his sinker has come down a hair the performance on that pitch has also fallen by the wayside.
  • Enter the Rays, who own a 128 wRC+ in the past week of play to rank eighth in the game and have had better numbers against fastballs than breaking balls this year.

They're getting better at not striking out, and with Castillo's decline in xBA and xSLG, coupled with fewer strikeouts, they should be well-positioned here to do some damage.

The Mariners continue to be one of the ugliest teams at the plate and have really only excelled at walking and hitting home runs. Zack Littell is the last person you want to face when those are your strengths, considering he's an expert strike-thrower and one of the best at limiting walks.

He's struggled a bit with the longball, but overall his numbers at home are considerably better than his on the road, and it may not take a stellar performance to win this one given what we've laid out above regarding Castillo.

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Best Bet: Rays ML (+105 at DraftKings)

Not sure where to place your bet? Be sure to check out our ballislifebets section. 

BEST NRFI BETS TODAY

We've got two amazing lefties on the hill in Detroit on Tuesday as Ranger Suarez gets set to toe the slab against Tarik Skubal, and best of all we'll watch these two duel in a very pitcher-friendly park.

Ranger Suarez should have no issues making it through the first inning unscathed against a Tigers team ranked 24th in wRC+ to left-handers given his masterful numbers to this point.

  • He's pitched to a wonderous 1.75 ERA thus far thanks to a low .227 xBA and with the eighth-best infield defense behind him by Outs Above Average it's no surprise that the ground-baller has produced better results than his expected marks.

Skubal has been similarly great, and while the Phillies have done damage versus southpaws they're still striking out in roughly 23% of their plate appearances in the split which should make for easy pickings.

  • Skubal's 29.2% strikeout rate classifies as elite, and he's done a wonderful job of limiting power with a .252 xSLG which is well below the league average of .402.

The Phillies are at their best against pitchers who struggle with control and allow extra-base hits, two things we can't say are true about Skubal. The top three in their order do hit lefties quite well, but Kyle Schwarber is mired in a slump at the moment and Trea Turner has still not fully worked his way back to form since returning from injury.

Trust in two elite arms here to do their job.

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NRFI Predictions: Phillies vs Tigers NRFI (-136 at FanDuel)

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Allan Howe
Allan Howe
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Sara Jane Gamelli
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