YRFI Picks for Wednesday MLB Games: Tigers vs Yankees, more

Last week's YTRFI and NRFI betting picks left me up 2.5 betting units. This week I start with three YRFI ()Yes Runs First Inning) bets for MLB games to be played on Wednesday.

All odds are from BetMGM Sportsbook, which has odds markets for MLB game props, player props, parlays, and futures bets.

Only about three weeks remain in the regular season. That still leaves time to add to our season winnings. After browsing my YRFI/NRFI betting picks for 2025, I am up 18 units. There's always room for improvement. Today's picks are an effort to add to my bottom line in a positive way. I'm wagering 2.5 units for MLB games tonight.

Colorado Rockies at LA Dodgers, -106 YRFI

Kyle Freeland and the LA Dodgers are a perfect storm for Yes Runs First Inning bettors. The Dodgers are hitting like Ty Cobb against Freeland in 2025: a .375 batting average. Last season, the Dodgers hit three home runs off the Colorado pitcher in six innings.

Kyle Freeland has terrible historical stats vs Dodgers

Here's additional alarming info: in 2023, Freeland allowed 10 earned runs against the LA Dodgers in 10 innings. That's a 9.00 ERA. His first inning ERA in 2025 is 8.31, the sixth-worst in MLB (15+ starts).

Freeland is 1-6 with 10 home runs allowed in 12 starts lifetime at Dodger Stadium. He has a 4.56 ERA in the first inning all-time against the Dodgers.

In the old days when a pitcher was that bad against an opponent, that team would call him "cousin." Well, Cousin Kyle is going to be on the hill tonight at Chavez Ravine, and he'll be tasked with findings ways to shut down Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and the other members of the Big Blue Wrecking Crew.

That's why I like the Over 0.5 Runs for first inning play for the COL/LAD tilt tonight in the NL West.

WAGER: Love the odds here from the experts at BetMGM. I grab -106 for COL at LAD to produce at least one run in the opening frame. My $106 wager wins me $100.

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Nationals at Marlins: -108 YRFI Odds

Among pitchers with at least 15 starts this season, Jake Irvin of the Washington Nationals has the worst ERA in the first inning. The right-hander has an ugly 11.17 ERA in the opening frame of games this season.

On Wednesday, Irvin faces the Marlins in Miami. Maybe it would be better for him to go to the beach. Irvin has surrendered an MLB-worst 33 home runs. He's allowed 54 base runners in 29 first innings. Blech.

Past performance does not (of course) guarantee future results. That is unless you have enough evidence to show it as a trait rather than a short-term trend. For his career, Irvin's first-inning ERA is 5.86 in 86 starts.

Jake Irvin and Eury Pérez both rank in top ten for worst 1st Inning ERA

Want more reasons to bet a full unit on Yes Runs in the First Inning for WAS/MIA tonight? The Fish are sending out Eury Pérez. The tall Dominican native has struggled in his first inning this season too. His 8.04 First Inning ERA in 16 starts is the eight worst in baseball for pitchers who have started at least 15 games.

Combined, Irvin and Pérez have allowed 14 home runs IN THE FIRST INNING in 45 combined innings. That tells me both of these hurlers are going to the hill not-quite-warmed-up in too many starts.

WAGER: I am betting $100 on at least one run being scored in the first inning. The odds are -108. That means I will need to lay down $108, but will win $100 if a run is put on the board in the opening frame by either or both teams.

YRFI: Tigers at Yankees, +104

The Yankees are third in baseball in runs scored in the first inning. Thanks to Aaron Judge they scored in the first frame on Tuesday. Tonight the Bombers face enigmatic Jack Flaherty in the second game of this series between two playoff bound teams.

Jack Flaherty is lost on the mound

Flaherty is not locating his pitches consistently. He must have a serious mechanical flaw because pitching coach Chris Fetters is usually superb at fixing such anomalies.

In his last 9 starts, Flaherty has allowed first-inning runs five times. He has a 3.86 ERA in the first inning. As a right-hander, he will be facing power hitters Trent Grisham (LHB) , Judge and Bellinger (LHB). The first four hitters in the Yank lineup average 31 HR.

Forget the Tigers: they aren't the team I'm focusing on here: it's the Unresolved Issues of Jack Flaherty and the Raw Power of Yankees 1--Thru-4 that lead me to making this bet...

WAGER: $50 on Yankees and Tigers to score at least one run in the first inning at +104 from BetMGM. If I win this bet, I earn $52 in winnings.