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NBA Atlanta Hawks vs Miami heat | Odds, Picks and Predictions Mar 6

NBA Betting Tips · 03/06/2023 - 6:30 pm · Miami

Publish Date: 03/06/2023
Fact checked by: Allan Howe

Hawks vs Heat Preview

In the second matchup in a miniseries of two games between these two teams, the Atlanta Hawks faces the Miami Heat (32-22, 14-19 on the Road) on Monday night. With Saturday's win, the Heat led by 2-1 in the series. The Heat's Southeast Division lead over Hawks increased to 1.5 games.

The Heat are not only competing for the division lead; they also hold the Eastern Conference seventh seed over the Hawks. Both teams may still rise to sixth seed and avoid the Play-in Tournament.

Recent form analysis

Can the Hawks shooting improve?

If the Hawks cover or win outright, they need to shoot better on 3s and get better performances from their star guards.

The Miami defense has given up the second-most 3-point attempts (39.8% of shots) this season. This is nothing new as the Heat’s defense has ranked among the bottom-four teams each of the last four seasons in 3-point Frequency Allowed. However, the Heat’s variance luck has taken a turn for the worse as they went from ranking first in 3-point Accuracy Allowed last season (34.1%) to 21st this season (37.1%).

The Hawks don’t take a ton of 3s — 29th in 3-point Shot Frequency (30.1%) this season — and they have dropped from third in 3-point Accuracy last season (37.8%) to 22nd this season (35.3%). The Hawks lost the math battle on Saturday, hitting just nine of their 30 3-pointers (30%), while Miami shot 13-of-35 (37.1%) from downtown. The Hawks struggled on Saturday as their star guards Trae Young (eight points on 2-of-13 shooting, 0-of-5 on 3s) and Dejounte Murray (10 points on 3-of-14 shooting, 0-of-5 on 3s) could not convert their looks from beyond the arc.

What will new Hawks coach Quin Snyder have up his sleeve to get a better showing from his star ball handlers?

Can the Heat defense get it done again against atlanta

The Heat held the Hawks down to 49 points in the first half after giving up exactly 71 points at the break in each of their previous games. They must maintain a similar defensive intensity throughout the 48-minute period to win and cover in this game.

The Hawks are more efficient in the halfcourt than the Heat. Miami will need to play solid defense and generate transition opportunities. Although Kevin Love is still in the rotation, his outlet passing has helped the Heat get easier looks in transition.

I think Jimmy Butler is expected to have a much bigger night on Monday. Bam Adebayo was the Heat's leading scorer on Saturday. However, the Heat were playing in the second leg in a back-to back following a heartbreaking, physical loss to the Knicks. Butler scored a team-high 33 points and made 18-of-20 free throws. Butler attempted only four free throws Saturday, as he attempted eight field goals and made five. This led to Butler scoring just 15 points. After a day off against Hawks, I expect Butler to be more aggressive this time.

Head to Head

Hawks vs Heat Head-to-Head this season.

The Heat lead the series 2 games to 1 after Saturday night’s win and seem to have the hawks number to some extent.

Statistical highlights

Team Leaders


T.Young- Atl

26.7 PPG

42.6 FG%

89 FT%


21.9 PPG

52 FG%

85 FT%


Capela- Atl

11.3 RPG

9.3 DRPG

2.0 ORPG


9.7 RPG

7.5 DRPG

2.2 ORPG


T.Young- Atl

10.1 APG

4.1 TOPG

35.1 MPG


5.1 APG

33.3 TOPG

36.1 MPG


Our Betting Pick for Today

Betting on the game! (Heat -3)

I expect the heat defense to steup up again against Atlanta. This is an outstanding styles matchup that favord the Miami heat.

Over Under Hawks vs Heat (229.5)

This should be a high-paced battle and I am betting the over as I think the Heat will force the pace and get easily into transition.

Hawks vs heat How to Watch 🏀

📅 Date: Monday, March, 06

🕚 Game Time: 7:30 pm

📺 How to Watch: NBA

Venue: Miami

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