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Arizona Division of Problem Gambling survey suggests prediction market trading is still emerging in population

Derek Helling

Legal Writer

Publish Date: Jul 22, 2026

Fact checked by: Matt Moreno

Key Points

Arizona Division of Problem Gambling released survey included respondents’ self-reporting of activity in various segments
Just over 5% of respondents shared that they had traded on prediction market exchanges within the past year
Exchanges scored toward the bottom of awareness polling for survey residents

The Arizona Division of Problem Gambling has released the findings of its survey covering “gambling behaviors, attitudes, and experiences among Arizona adult residents” for fiscal year 2025-26. For the first time, that survey queried respondents on their knowledge and use of prediction market exchanges.

The responses showed less self-reported trading on the exchanges than use of any other category of activity in the poll. The level of awareness about prediction markets that the respondents denoted was nearly three times higher than the usage rate, but that awareness was still significantly lower than many other activity types.

Survey suggests that prediction market awareness, usage lagging behind

The Arizona Division of Problem Gambling (ADPG) survey findings have offered a limited glimpse into how the state’s population has reacted to the availability of prediction market exchanges over the past year. The polling produced over 1,000 useful responses.

In terms of prediction market trading, the main points of data involved trading on the exchanges and respondents’ familiarity with the exchanges. The respondents didn’t report high levels in either regard.

The findings show that just 5.1% of respondents reported trading prediction markets at least once during the past year. That’s about a quarter of the engagement rate for traditional sportsbooks (20.5%) and less than a third of the rate for “online gambling other than sportsbooks” (16%).

Reported awareness of the exchanges is significantly higher at 14%. For context, over half of respondents (53%) stated that they are aware of the existence of cryptocurrencies.

Both of those data points suggest that prediction market exchanges are still an emerging activity in Arizona. However, the survey findings point to why those levels may be so nominal and why these rates in Arizona may not serve as a strong predictor of similar activity in the rest of the United States.

Age demographics heavily influenced survey results

The ADPG findings state that people over the age of 60 represented the largest demographic by age among survey respondents. That age group accounted for over a third of the people who submitted useful responses.

That age breakdown skews the awareness and usage factors for prediction markets. The report states that “Arizonans aged 21-29 had the highest participation rate at 10%, with participation declining steadily with age to 1% among those aged 60 and older, indicating a significant negative association between age and prediction market participation.”

As the findings accurately emphasize, that skew toward older participants was necessary to ensure that the survey represented a proportionate slice of Arizona’s population at large. According to U.S. Census Data, people 60 years and older represent the largest plurality of Arizona residents by age.

At the same time, that data makes the ADPG data difficult to extrapolate across the entire U.S., as other states have dominant pluralities composed of younger residents. For that reason, this survey is only useful within the context of Arizona’s population.

If the data is accurate in terms of the usage rate of young adults in Arizona, though, that still means that thousands of them have traded on prediction market exchanges over the past year. Longitudinal results are necessary to see whether that usage will fluctuate as that segment of the population begins to age.

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