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California Indian Nations Gaming Association Chair Discusses Casinos’ Response to Prediction Markets

Legal Writer

Publish Date: Jul 15, 2026

Fact checked by: Matt Moreno

Key Points

Chair James Siva called prediction markets the “most impending threat” that tribal gaming in California has ever faced
Siva claimed that prediction market trading has already resulted in lost revenues for tribes
Siva said tribes are targeting 2028 for California sports wagering ballot initiative

A panel on tribal gaming during the 2026 summer meeting of the National Council of Legislators from Gaming States (NCLGS) produced several insights into the sentiments of tribal gaming authorities on prediction market trading and how tribal leaders in California plan to respond. California Indian Nations Gaming Association Chair James Siva was part of the panel and he called the exchanges a significant threat to the success of tribal gaming enterprises.

Siva also updated attendees on California tribes’ plan to bring legal online sports wagering to the state as an alternative to trading of sports event contracts. The earliest that such sportsbooks may be available is mid-2029, though, allowing exchanges time to build and reinforce relationships with traders.

California state flag

Siva discusses tribal activity to counter “threat” of prediction markets in California

Siva took part in a dialogue entitled “Special Joint Committee on Casinos and Indian Gaming Sovereignty, Sports Betting & the Future of Tribal Gaming: A California Conversation” on July 9. During the course of that conversation, Siva referred to trading on prediction market exchanges “the largest, most impending threat [that] we’ve faced since the creation of this industry.”

Siva also stated that he believes tribal casinos in California have lost revenue because of the availability in the state, with some operators suffering a reduction of up to 5%. He explained that a primary response among tribal gaming authorities within California’s borders has been working with legislators in Sacramento.

While states like North Carolina have enacted laws addressing prediction market trading, tribal leaders have lobbied against similar proposals in California. Siva explained that tribes have pushed back against those bills out of caution that their enshrinement would legitimize prediction market trading.

Siva also noted that tribal gaming authorities are preparing to offer Californians an alternative to trading sports event contracts. The offering is tentative, though, and years away at best.

Siva points to potential 2028 sports wagering ballot initiative

In California, gambling expansion requires the adoption of new constitutional amendments. That process involves public referendums.

Siva expressed that tribal leaders are “very much looking at 2028 as a date that tribes are preparing to move forward with a tribally led initiative for an online sports betting market.” California voters last went to the polls on that topic in 2022, when they voted down two proposals.

Should a 2028 referendum resolve positively, that would legalize sports wagering in California, but it could be months thereafter before legal online sportsbooks would actually be available to people in the state. The state legislature may need to pass enabling legislation, regulators would have to draw up rules, and tribal authorities could need to formulate contracts with sports wagering platforms.

For that reason, the first sight of legal online sportsbooks in California may not become material until the middle of or even late 2029. In the meantime, Californians will continue to be able to trade sports event contracts on prediction market exchanges barring restrictions from the United States Congress or Supreme Court.

For that reason, the new tribal sportsbooks could face obstacles like traders’ brand preferences and habits when they launch in California. However, Siva’s comments signal that tribal gaming authorities within the borders of California want to try to surmount those obstacles.

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