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CFTC Advisory Note Puts 'Mention Markets' in More Precarious Position

Legal Writer

Publish Date: Sep 24, 2026

Fact checked by: Matt Moreno

Key Points

"Mention markets" are prediction contracts that settle based on whether a person uses certain words or phrases in their communication
CFTC communication states that these markets could be subject to predisposition of high risk for manipulation
Some prediction market exchanges have already limited instances of these markets amid integrity concerns

United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chair Michael Selig's office has issued an advisory notice to operators of designated contract markets regarding a category of contracts colloquially known as "mention markets." The correspondence stops short of discouraging operators from accepting trades of mention markets or restricting them, merely confirming that Selig's office is scrutinizing the concept.

Numerous parties have raised concerns about the integrity of these markets and pointed out the ease with which bad actors could manipulate them. Some exchanges are reacting by limiting the offerings amid this regulatory scrutiny and those conversations.

Selig's office says "mention markets" could face unfavorable predisposition

According to the notice, operators of designated contract markets (DCMs) "should consider whether certain categories of event contracts, such as Mention Markets, have a heightened potential for manipulation." Current DCM rules require the operators to certify that they have scrutinized markets for potential integrity issues.

That oversight becomes more crucial for mention markets because Selig says regulators may view the contracts with a more critical eye.

"As the settlement of contracts in Mention Markets may be controlled by a single individual, a small group of individuals, or persons with access to or influence over the individual whose words, attendance, or interaction determines settlement, DMO staff may view Mention Markets as presumptively readily susceptible to manipulation and accordingly expect a heightened showing in support of any submission seeking to list such contracts."

This is the exact concern that many entities have voiced.

cftc says mention markets could get higher scrutiny

NFL, others decry mention markets as integrity concerns

Many voices have chimed in on the manipulation potential for mention markets. The most prominent among them so far has been the National Football League, though.

The NFL sent letters to DCM operators in August asking them to refrain from offering certain markets in connection to its events. Mention markets were among those requested exclusions.

Past examples of NFL mention markets include particular phrases and words that broadcast commentators might use during games. That's a narrow example of how some DCMs have exercised selective caution.

Kalshi, others have limited mention markets

Kalshi announced in August that it was removing mention markets connected to sporting events. However, mention markets connected to other types of events remain available on the platform.

Selig's notice might increase reluctance to offer these markets. Even if there are no regulations banning them, instances of their manipulation could deteriorate a DCM's reputation.

Because regulators might already view them with a skeptical eye, any founded manipulation could produce heightened regulatory scrutiny for an operator. The risk might not be worth the action for that reason.

DCMs might also find it difficult to perform their own elevated scrutiny on such markets. That lack of confidence could result in fewer of these markets being available.

As a further result, new regulations would be unnecessary to ban obsolete contracts. Selig's notice may have conveyed that his office takes a familiar approach to mention markets. The view is that just because you can offer the contracts, doesn't mean that you should.

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