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Kalshi suspends candidate Laurie Buckhout for trading on her own Congressional race

Legal Writer

Publish Date: Sep 04, 2026

Fact checked by: Matt Moreno

Key Points

Laurie Buckhout is the Republican nominee for North Carolina’s first district in the United States House of Representatives
Buckhout faces a three-year suspension and a fine from Kalshi
Buckhout has cooperated with the investigation and called the trades “a dumb mistake”

Kalshi has banned Laurie Buckhout from trading on its prediction market exchange for a period of three years and fined her $2,589.96 after investigating trades that Buckhout made on the platform. Buckhout is the Republican nominee in the race to represent North Carolina’s first congressional district in the United States House of Representatives and she purchased contracts connected to the outcome of that election.

Kalshi’s exchange rules ban such trades, leading to the penalties that Buckhout received. The news may move the market on the race further in her opponent’s favor on Kalshi.

(Photo illustration by Cheng Xin/Getty Images)

Buckhout trades violated Kalshi rules

Kalshi announced the results of its investigation on Aug. 28, 2026, stating that it reached a settlement with Buckhout regarding the improper activity. The disclosure does not state when Buckhout purchased the contracts in question or what the exact premise of the contracts was, but does denote that the total position amounted to less than $1,000.

Kalshi cited its Rule 5. 17(z), which states that “if a Trader is a decision maker, either directly or indirectly, or has any influence, directly or indirectly, no matter the scale and importance of the influence, on the outcome of the Underlying event of any Contract, that Trader is prohibited from attempting to enter into any trade, either directly or indirectly, on the market in such Contracts.”

Because she is a candidate in the election, Buckhout qualifies as a “decision maker.” She will be unable to make any trades on the platform for the next three years, which is a sanction that she agreed to.

Buckhout accepts Kalshi’s sanctions

Kalshi’s statement adds that Buckhout cooperated with its compliance team and has agreed to the terms of the penalties. A public statement from Buckhout corroborates that claim.

“I bet on myself,” Buckhout said. “Literally. It was a dumb mistake, and as soon as I learned there was an issue, I worked to make it right. Safe to say my career as a Kalshi trader was short-lived.”

Buckhout’s candidacy may benefit from North Carolina’s redrawn congressional districting map, as the state redrew the boundaries to behoove the chance of the Republican candidate earlier this year. However, traders on Kalshi are pessimistic about her chances.

Kalshi NC-01 market currently favors incumbent

US Rep. Don Davis, who defeated Buckhout for this office in 2024, is currently the market favorite to retain the seat in November. At the time of this writing, contracts on the “yes” side for Davis of the market on which candidate will win the election are trading at $0.63.

Comparatively, “yes” contracts for Buckhout in the same market are trading at $0.44. Davis took the opportunity to prop up his chances in the race with a comment on Buckhout’s suspension.

“If Buckhout can’t be trusted to follow the most basic prediction market rules, there is no chance she can be trusted as an ethical representative for North Carolina families,” David commented. Kalshi traders interested in the election have demonstrated their reading of the current situation as well.

Connected markets point to Buckhout’s vulnerability as candidate

Kalshi is also offering a margin of victory market and a voter turnout market related to NC-01.

The contract seeing the greatest action in the margin of victory market is Davis +1, which is trading at $0.50. Buckhout +2 demands a contract price of $0.26 right now, for comparison.

Traders are also playing it safe when it comes to turnout in the race, with contracts of 280,000+ ballots trading at a market-high $0.53. There are more than three quarters of a million people in North Carolina’s first congressional district, as it includes the cities of Rocky Mount and Wilson.

Contracts related to a victory for Buckhout are currently priced lower than any other Republican candidates’ contracts on Kalshi despite the Republican-controlled state legislature redrawing the map to boost the party’s chances of retaining control of the US House earlier this year. The GOP holds a tentative 218 to 212 advantage over the Democrats in that chamber and there are four vacant seats at this time.

Kalshi contract prices for Buckhout’s margin of victory and candidacy have fallen with the news of Buckhout’s suspension. That won’t be a concern for her anytime soon, though. She cannot trade on the exchange for at least the next three years.

Looking for more news and updates? Head over to our Ballislife Play page.

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