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PredictIt Gets the Green Light, Could Launch New Exchange in October

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Publish Date: Sep 08, 2025

Fact checked by: Sara Jane Gamelli

Many could have predicted this.

Washington, D.C.-based Aristotle, which services New Zealand-based PredictIt, announced late Friday that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has given the green light and approved its applications to operate as both a Designated Contract Market (DCM) and a Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO).

Aristotle now can launch a new exchange - expected to open for trading sometime in October - designed to provide U.S. traders with more diverse markets, deeper liquidity, and broader participation on PredictIt, which is best known for political prediction markets that customers can wager on from national, state, and local election cycles and more.

Since 2014, Aristotle has serviced PredictIt serving policymakers, journalists, researchers, and the public

“We thank the CFTC staff and Acting Chair Caroline Pham for their diligence in reviewing and approving our applications,” said John Aristotle Phillips, CEO of Aristotle in a news release.

“With more than a decade of experience operating PredictIt, we’re excited to bring that knowledge and community to a fully regulated marketplace. Prediction markets help people understand the future, and this approval allows us to deliver the most robust and transparent version of that vision yet."

Current markets on the site include the result of the widely publicized New York Mayoral race, who will be the 2028 presidential candidates, who will be the first to leave President Trump's cabinet in 2025, who will win the New Jersey Governor's race, and more.

A PredictIt live example of New York City's Mayoral race market can be found HERE.

July Settlement

Just a couple of months ago, the CFTC and PredictIt settled their more-than-decade long lawsuit per a joint status update filed in the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Texas.

Back in 2014, the CFTC granted a “no-action” letter to PredictIt, allowing the company to offer its election event contracts without the worry of any kind of potential enforcement actions from the regulator. Fast forward to August 2022, the CFTC rescinded that letter, giving the operator until Feb. 23 to liquidate its contracts. In September 2022, Predictit challenged that decision in court.

In early 2023, the federal court enjoined the CFTC from closing PredictIt’s event contract market until the court reached its decision in the case. Various motions and filings continued without resolution until last Friday's announcement.

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