Home / Play / Tribal Gaming Interests Secure Win Against Prediction Markets at the Ninth Circuit

Tribal Gaming Interests Secure Win Against Prediction Markets at the Ninth Circuit

Legal Writer

Publish Date: Sep 17, 2026

Fact checked by: Matt Moreno

Key Points

Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals reversed trial court's ruling that tribal gaming authorities' lawsuit was unlikely to succeed
District court will reconsider complaints' claims based on federal tribal gaming laws
Application of tribal gaming laws could complicate the future of sports event contract trading

A federal judge will review a motion by two tribal gaming authorities within California's borders that could enjoin Kalshi and Robinhood from offering sports event contracts to people on the tribal groups' lands. That motion was denied upon first consideration but the United States Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals has revived the request for a preliminary injunction by entering a finding contrary to the trial judge's ruling.

It's another unfavorable result for prediction market operators offering sports event contracts out of the Ninth Circuit, but this one could have unique ramifications because of the involvement of tribal gambling laws. The legal questions before the court are distinct from those that have become commonplace in disputes between prediction market exchange operators and state governments.

Ninth Circuit puts injunction back into play

A three-judge panel from the Ninth Circuit issued its opinion on Wednesday. The case is Blue Lake Rancheria; Chicken Ranch Rancheria of Me-Wuk Indians vs. Kalshi et al.

At issue in the appeal was whether US District Judge Jacqueline Scott Corley erred when she denied the groups' request for a preliminary injunction in November 2025. Scott Corley denied the motion because she found that the tribes' claims were unlikely to succeed in trial.

However, the Ninth Circuit panel found "that the tribes were likely to succeed in their claims that Kalshi’s sports event contracts on tribal lands violated IGRA and the tribes’ gaming ordinances." IGRA is the US Indian Gaming Regulatory Act.

As a result, Scott Corley must reevaluate the motion for injunctive relief on the other pertinent points. Her decision will bear weight beyond the jurisdiction of northern California.

(Photo illustration by Cheng Xin/Getty Images)

Injunction could tee up tribal gaming rights questions

Scott Corley could reach the same conclusion on different grounds. Granting the injunction would have substantial local and national ramifications, though.

Kalshi and Robinhood may have to create new geofencing restrictions for the tribes' territories. People in those areas would be unable to trade sports event contracts while the lawsuit is in progress.

Scott Corley reversing her decision could also result in another appeal to the Ninth Circuit. Such an appeal would put larger questions about tribal gaming rights in front of the Ninth Circuit.

Kalshi and Robinhood would likely prefer that a different court handle those questions.

Ninth Circuit has already dealt significant defeats to exchanges

A Ninth Circuit panel has already ruled against Kalshi in Kalshi v. Assad. The judges opined in that case that sports event contracts are legally indistinguishable from sports bets.

That decision also approved gambling regulators in Nevada's continued treatment of Kalshi's sports event contracts as gambling. That ruling is on appeal to the full Ninth Circuit and the US Supreme Court.

The complainants in Blue Lake Rancheria are seeking similar relief but with different arguments. The pertinent questions involve the interplay of the IGRA and other federal statutes.

Tribal gaming rights complicate future of sports event contract trading

Like Nevada authorities, the plaintiffs in Blue Lake Rancheria argue that sports event contracts are tantamount to gambling. However, the premises diverge from that point.

The defendants in Kalshi v. Assad base their claims on Nevada gambling law. Kalshi has responded that federal law governing its exchange preempt Nevada law.

In Blue Lake, though, the main questions will revolve around potential clashes of the IGRA and the US Commodity Exchange Act. It's a question of how to negotiate disparate federal laws rather than whether federal law preempts state law.

In general, the IGRA reserves the right to regulate gambling on tribal lands for the respective tribal authorities. Sports wagering falls under the legal definition of gambling in that statute.

Therefore, courts will be adjudicating where that tribal authority begins and where the oversight of federal agencies like the Commodity Futures Trading Commission ends. The opinions could set national precedents.

Ninth Circuit decision could inform other tribal rights cases

These plaintiffs in California aren't the only tribal gaming authorities currently challenging the legality of event contract trading in their territories. There are also ongoing disputes in federal courts in New Mexico and Wisconsin.

A clear opinion that sports event contract trading is gambling and that tribal authorities can dictate what types of event contracts are available on their lands would form precedent that judges in those courts may draw upon. Such a decision could even form a new track for an appeal to the Supreme Court.

For now, though, all the Ninth Circuit has done is rule that Scott Corley's original reason for denying the injunction against Kalshi and Robinhood was errant. The chain of possible events in motion is a more significant threat to those companies.

Trying to keep up on the legal situation around prediction markets? All you need is our Ballislife Play page.

Play

Michigan Gambling Regulator Issues More Cease-And-Desist Orders to Sweepstakes Casinos

The Michigan Gaming Control Board has continued to make its best efforts to curtail unlicensed gambling within the state's borders by sending letters demanding that the operators of more gaming websites stop servicing players in Michigan. The latest round of cease-and-desist distribution includes 33 targeted websites. The list includes several ...

by Derek Helling

Oct 09, 2026