
Three games on the card tonight, with a pair of Eastern Conference battles going early and a Western Conference tussle taking place in San Francisco for the nightcap. With the Commissioners' Cup in place, the Liberty will continue toward the 27th by hosting the Washington Mystics. As league-wide thoughts are seemingly with Brittney Sykes, her expansion Toronto Tempo visit the league-worst Connecticut Sun.
Then we have the Minnesota Lynx and Golden State Valkyries going at it late, and that's the game I'm zeroed in on, as there's been nobody more exciting to watch dissect defenses than Olivia Miles. I thought Paige Bueckers was the best rookie we had seen since A'ja Wilson was drafted, but Miles is slowly changing my mind.

(Photo by David Berding/Getty Images)
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Here are the odds for Friday games (odds via FanDuel):
Washington Mystics at New York Liberty
Toronto Tempo at Connecticut Sun
Minnesota Lynx at Golden State Valkyries
Two games separate the Lynx (12-3) and Valkyries (10-5), as the Western Conference contenders are currently first and fifth, respectively, in the overall WNBA standings.
I can only imagine the mindset of the Lynx after a whirlwind of the week, going from first in the standings and Commissioners' Cup standings, to second after losing in Vegas, to back in contention when the Aces lost in Dallas, to first in the league but out of the Cup championship when the Aces rebounded with a win in Phoenix.
The Lynx are also 12-3 ATS and could have an extra pep in their step tonight, fueled by missing out on the bonus money that comes with playing in the annual in-season tournament championship. The Valkyries, meanwhile, are just 8-7 ATS, but do ride a four-game win streak into this game. They haven't been a dog much this season, but in the five games they've gotten points they're 2-3 ATS.
(Odds via FanDuel)
I contemplated playing the Rookie of the Year frontrunner over her points total (16.5), as I don't know if the Valkyries can stop her from getting 20, but then I saw better odds for points and assists. And the fact is, if Golden State coach Natalie Nakase puts Gabby Williams on Miles, then the rookie sensation will simply drive and kick to another weapon.
For the season, Olivia Miles is averaging 19.0 points and 5.7 assists, which gets us to 24.7. More recently, those numbers have ticked up. Over her last six games, Miles is averaging 28.6 points + assists, starting with a 28-point, seven-assist performance against these same Valkyries. Fearless as she is, this might be the best player prop on the card.
If Williams is chasing Miles around tonight, she may find herself struggling to score her season average of 16.3 points per game without her legs powering her shots. I know she's coming off a 25-point performance against the Dallas Wings, and I know she's scored 16 or more in five straight games, but the Lynx are built different.
The clincher for me is looking at her 17 appearances (12 starts) against the Lynx, as she's scoring an average of 8.6 points against them. As a matter of fact, in those games, she would have only gone over twice. And in case you're wondering, as a starter, she's averaging 9.5 points. Her focus tonight is to stop Miles, not run her points up.
One would think a pair of high-scoring teams like the Lynx and Valkyries would start fast tonight, based on their season-long numbers. Minnesota has gone over in nine of 15 this season, while Golden State has landed high in 10 of its 15 games. Also the Lynx rank third in the WNBA in scoring 23.6 points in the first quarter this season, so it's conceivable Miles will try to ignite things early.
But, the Valkyries are stringent at home and don't focus much on offense out of the shoot. While they rank ninth with just 20.9 points in the first quarter, they rank No. 1 with a scoring defense that allows 18.5 points in the opening quarter. And who is right behind them? The Lynx are second in allowing 19.7 points in the first. Two defensive-minded coaches who let the offense come as the game progresses will have their teams tuned up for stingy start.
W.G. Ramirez is a veteran sports writer from Las Vegas and a Senior Staff Analyst at Ballislife Bets. Follow him on X at @WillieGRamirez
