The NBA is in an era of parity that is unprecedented in league history, with eight different franchises taking home titles over the course of the last eight seasons. From the Toronto Raptors in 2019 to the New York Knicks in 2026, the last near-decade of hoops has proven that even the most tortured fanbases have a chance to get their moment someday.
As we approach a brand new NBA season, the championship picture is a little bit different than it was a year ago. One of the most chaotic offseasons in NBA history has led to plenty of new faces in new places, most notably LeBron James and Jaylen Brown in Philadelphia and LaMelo Ball in Minnesota. And you can’t forget about Kawhi Leonard’s return to Toronto, which just became official this week after the resolution of his role in the never-ending cap circumvention saga.
On the other hand, there’s quite a bit of carryover from last season as well. The Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs are very much the dominant forces they were a year ago, and the New York Knicks are in an intriguing position to push toward a repeat. Nikola Jokić is always going to do Nikola Jokić things in Denver, and the Warriors always have the potential to surprise as long as Steph Curry is on the court.
Regardless, at the end of the day, just two of these teams will be playing in the NBA Finals and only one will get the honor of lifting the Larry O’Brien Trophy. From the top frontrunners to the league’s bottom feeders, here are the NBA’s championship contender tiers.
S Tier - Frontrunning Favorites
Teams: New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs
As much change as there was in the league this summer, none of these new-look rosters have enough to make me seriously consider them over the league’s three superior teams from a season ago. In the Western Conference, it seems like a foregone conclusion that a perennial Thunder vs. Spurs series is going to decide the NBA Finals representative and quite possibly the champion for the next few seasons.
In the East, the only team that can be trusted to keep up with either the Spurs or the Thunder is Jalen Brunson’s Knicks, and I only believe that because I saw it with my own two eyes in June. There might be some comparable rosters in the East, but the Knicks camaraderie puts them a tier ahead of all the teams built with the intention of stopping them.
We were treated to the first Western Conference Finals Game 7 since 2018 thanks to the INCREDIBLE heavyweight clash between the Spurs and Thunder last postseason!
They open their 2026-27 campaigns against each other on Oct. 20 🍿 pic.twitter.com/iXkzIFx76I
— NBA (@NBA) September 1, 2026
A Tier - Possible Contenders
Teams: Detroit Pistons, Miami Heat, Minnesota Timberwolves, Philadelphia 76ers
Don’t get me wrong, LeBron James and Jaylen Brown are compelling additions for the Philadelphia 76ers. I just don’t see it being enough to truly qualify them as an NBA Finals contender at this point in time, although I wouldn’t be completely stunned if a Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid-led Big Four makes a deep playoff run. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Klay Thompson certainly make the Miami Heat a more formidable force, but that’s an experiment I’m going to have to see succeed before I make any brash championship declarations.
As disappointing as the Detroit Pistons’ playoff run was a season ago, they still won 60 games in the regular season and have a young enough core, led by Cade Cunningham, to be considered one of the leading threats in the Eastern Conference. Partnering LaMelo Ball with Anthony Edwards in Minnesota is something that can go one of two ways for a team that’s been on the fringe of making the Finals, but I’m pretty confident their pairing will be more positive than negative.
A breakdown of 12 must-see games just dropped 👀 Read here! ➡️ https://t.co/GYtlS3VKxW⁰⁰Schedule Release // @ticketmaster pic.twitter.com/kLDPYaUoi2
— Miami HEAT (@MiamiHEAT) August 13, 2026
B Tier - Playoff Threats
Teams: Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Lakers, Orlando Magic, Toronto Raptors
Because we’re in an era of never-before-seen parity, the list of teams that you can’t quite consider legit contenders but can’t also count out completely is probably longer than it has been in any season I can remember. As long as Jayson Tatum is in green and Brad Stevens is running the front office, I won’t be caught sleeping on the Boston Celtics. Doubly so if they can revive Paul George. The Cleveland Cavaliers were probably a tier ahead of this going into last season, but these playoff shortcomings keep stacking and it feels like that core’s peak is past them as a unit.
The Denver Nuggets are always going to be a tough out in the playoffs with Nikola Jokić, but the roster around him thinned out even more this offseason and is as weak as it’s been this decade. The Houston Rockets feel like a team that could win 55 games or 42 games in the regular season, as do the Los Angeles Lakers and Orlando Magic. I feel pretty comfortable with the assertion that the Toronto Raptors will still hover between the 3 and 5 seed in the Eastern Conference even with the addition of Kawhi, and I don’t think there’s even much flexibility there.
Paul George getting some offseason work with Jayson Tatum and the @celtics 🙌
(via: jaytatum0/IG) pic.twitter.com/3Ah9SFbIHp
— NBA (@NBA) September 2, 2026
C Tier - Mid
Teams: Atlanta Hawks, Charlotte Hornets, Chicago Bulls, Dallas Mavericks, Golden State Warriors, Phoenix Suns, Portland Trail Blazers
Most of these teams will make the playoffs, a few of them won’t. Regardless, they are all in the same general tier of being slightly good but mostly mediocre and at their worst, bad. The Atlanta Hawks had a very strong finish to the season after trading Trae Young and even went up 2-1 on the Knicks in the first round, but their subsequent collapse proved they still have some pieces to add to the puzzle. The Charlotte Hornets also finished the season red-hot, defeated the Heat in the play-in round, but lost their matchup to the Magic and went home disappointed. I’m not sure how much of a jump they’ll make after trading Ball, but at the very least I don’t think they’ll be much worse.
The Dallas Mavericks could find themselves a tier up as the season progresses, but that was still a pretty awful basketball team last year even with how great rookie Cooper Flagg looked. The Golden State Warriors had an offseason so stagnant that you could only wonder if Mitch McConnell was in the GM’s chair this summer. The Phoenix Suns, at their absolute peak, are a 50-win team. The Portland Trail Blazers could surprise folks again this season, but I’m not sure if re-integrating Damian Lillard and adding Ja Morant will be a good thing or a bad thing after the team's surprise 2025-26 results.
D Tier - Just Not There Yet
Teams: Indiana Pacers, Los Angeles Clippers, Memphis Grizzlies, Milwaukee Bucks, Washington Wizards
Starting with the Indiana Pacers, I just don’t have the faith that a rehabbed Tyrese Haliburton is going to be enough to fully rebuild from the depths this franchise went when he was down. At least not this season. The Los Angeles Clippers are in a horrific spot for the next decade after the NBA’s sanctions, but they actually have an okay enough roster this season to at least keep them off the bottom tier.
The Memphis Grizzlies are building a solid foundation of young talent led by No. 3 overall pick Cam Boozer and last year’s first rounder Cedric Coward, but that talent still has to be developed at the pro level to become a true threat in the standings. The Milwaukee Bucks have gotten off to a nice start to their post-Giannis rebuild and have some hope, but again, it’s very much a rebuild. Anthony Davis, Trae Young and AJ Dybantsa make the Washington Wizards an intriguing candidate to move up a tier throughout the season, but I have to see it first to believe it.
AJ Dybantsa Summer League Tape — 2 games pic.twitter.com/jRxCt4PQBT
— Basketball Performances (@NBAPerformances) July 22, 2026
F Tier - Not Good At All
Teams: Brooklyn Nets, New Orleans Pelicans, Sacramento Kings, Utah Jazz
These teams don’t really have much going for them, besides one or two young players who they hope can turn around the franchise sooner rather than later. The Brooklyn Nets selected scoring machine Mikel Brown Jr. out of Louisville with the No. 6 overall pick in the NBA Draft, and he’s a player they hope will make up for their nightmare 2025 class. New Orleans Pelicans center Derik Queen is entering his second season after showing flashes as a rookie, but it’s hard to find a franchise in worse position overall.
Of these four teams, the Sacramento Kings and Utah Jazz probably have the most to look forward to. Darius Acuff Jr. became the first rookie probably ever to actually come out and tell teams not to draft him because he wanted to play for the Kings, which is not a small thing coming from arguably the best guard in college hoops last season. The Jazz, of course, selected generational guard prospect Darryn Peterson with the second overall pick in June, and his summer league output proved Utah is in good hands moving forward.
Darryn Peterson had 28 PTS (11/21 FG), 5 REB, 4 3PT in his 27-MIN Summer League Debut pic.twitter.com/DszqaPym9P https://t.co/6cXS8xTuT0
— Ballislife.com (@Ballislife) July 5, 2026
