It's no secret that the New York Knicks are entering their first NBA Finals appearance in 27 years as decisive underdogs, with most reputable betting markets pricing them between +160 and +170 ahead of their highly anticipated tilt with the San Antonio Spurs.
It’s not quite the mountainous +600 odds the Knicks faced in 1999, also against an upstart Spurs team that was centered around a prodigious big man in his early 20s, but it would still be considered a significant upset should Jalen Brunson and company come out victorious. The question is: should they be underdogs? The Knicks enter with far more playoff experience, a substantial rest advantage, and a deeper bench.
2026 Finals: Knicks vs. Spurs Series Odds
San Antonio Spurs: -190
New York Knicks: +160
*Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook*
History on the Knicks' Side?
The Knicks are heading into San Antonio as 4.5-point underdogs for Game 1, but history suggests that Game 1 is their best chance to steal one on the road. According to Action Network, teams with nine or more days of rest are 10-3 SU against teams with fewer than four days of rest in the second round or later since 2002.
When you compound that with the fact that the Spurs are coming off a particularly bruising and emotionally taxing series with the Oklahoma City Thunder, it’s not far-fetched to believe we could see a mini championship hangover to start the series.
Should the New York Knicks be underdogs? 👀
They are a 4.5-point underdog against the San Antonio Spurs in Game 1.
Should the Spurs be considered the favorite despite the Knicks 11-game WIN STREAK?#alwaysnewyork #porvida pic.twitter.com/2XeJNJdAUa
— Ballislife Bets (@BallislifeBets) June 3, 2026
Not only does history suggest New York has an advantage in Game 1, but it also suggests the Knicks’ relatively easy path to the Finals may clear the way for them to win the series entirely. According to NBA Base, teams coming off a sweep are 20-4 throughout NBA history when facing a team coming off a seven-game series. While the obvious pushback to that would be the difference in opponent quality, I would again go back to how much the Spurs needed to exert to beat Oklahoma City and how physically and emotionally taxing that series was.
Piping Hot
Still, it would be somewhat reductionist to suggest that the only reason the Knicks could win this series is because they’ve had an easier path than the Spurs. A big reason the path has looked so easy is how cohesive the Knicks are playing and how thoroughly they are beating their opponents.
The Knicks have an NBA-best 11-3 record ATS throughout the playoffs so far, and their +15.5 ATS +/- and 19.5 points per game average margin of victory both rank head and shoulders ahead of any other team.
Will the Knicks win the series? Maybe, maybe not. They are still significant underdogs, after all, and Vegas usually doesn’t find itself on the wrong side of these outcomes. But, as you can tell, history also tells us the Knicks have a serious chance to shock the world and bring Larry O back to the Mecca for the first time in 53 years.
Also, FanDuel has Jalen Brunson at around +195 to win Finals MVP, with Victor Wembanyama hovering around -165. That’s a better price than the actual Finals odds, and it’s hard to imagine a world where the Knicks win the NBA Finals and Brunson doesn’t win MVP. If you like the Knicks, it’s probably worth taking a flier on this one as well.
