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6 NBA Teams Facing Make-or-Break 2026-27 Seasons

Grant Afseth September 23, 2026Fact checked by: Sara Jane Gamelli Be First

The New York Knicks open the 2026-27 season as champions, four months after beating the San Antonio Spurs in five games to end a 53-year title drought. The last eight titles have gone to eight different franchises. No team has repeated since the Golden State Warriors won in 2017 and 2018.

Donovan Mitchell Cavaliers
(Photo by Stephen Gosling/NBAE via Getty Images)

Over the summer, LeBron James left the Los Angeles Lakers for the Philadelphia 76ers, and Giannis Antetokounmpo was traded from the Milwaukee Bucks to the Miami Heat.

Training camps open later this month. Six teams facing meaningful expectations stand out as facing pressure to make significant changes if this season goes sideways.

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Cleveland Cavaliers

Cleveland won 64 games in 2024-25 and lost in the second round. Last season, the Cavaliers went 52-30 and reached the Eastern Conference finals, where the Knicks eliminated them.

Cleveland has already shown that they felt compelled to make a change midway through last year. Darius Garland was traded to the LA Clippers for James Harden, and now they enter the season with Harden having a full training camp, Donovan Mitchell locked in on a massive contract extension, and Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen still forming the frontcourt tandem.

Mitchell's four-year maximum extension begins in 2027-28. Harden declined a $42.3 million player option and re-signed Sept. 8 on a three-year, $96.5 million deal, according to Hoops Rumors. He turned 37 in August. The lower salary helped Cleveland drop below the first apron and acquire Peyton Watson from the Denver Nuggets in a five-team sign-and-trade.

If this doesn't work again this season, they have very little time as Harden is already 37, and they might have to make another substantial shakeup, potentially looking at the frontcourt to find the right combination to get over the hump.

This is a team that has invested heavily in its roster but has been unable to break through to the NBA Finals. The two-big lineup worked really well. That combination helped them win 64 games. But the question isn't necessarily whether it works in general. The question is whether it works well enough for the amount of money Cleveland is paying, especially when their superstar is a small guard.

Golden State Warriors

Golden State finished 37-45 and 10th in the West, and the Phoenix Suns ended its season in the play-in. Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler III missed a combined 83 games.

Steve Kerr re-signed in May on a multi-year deal. Draymond Green returned on a one-year contract, and Kristaps Porzingis re-signed for two years at a reported $40 million. Porzingis has yet to share the floor with Butler, who had knee surgery and is targeting a return in January or February.

This one is self-explanatory. Curry is looking to win titles. He's going to stay loyal to Golden State, but they're running out of time to win with him as the focal point, and they're going to have to be aggressive.

They explored going after LeBron James. They've been in rumors for numerous stars. They traded for Butler, and things were looking up before he suffered an injury that is going to keep him sidelined not only through the end of last season but for a good chunk of this season, at the very least. They also tried to get Kevin Durant before trading for Butler.

They've been trying to make big-splash moves around Curry. They managed to get Butler, but they've been unable to get the other moves done.

A lot of the young players they've added haven't quite taken the next step in their development to fill pivotal roles, so they're going to have to tread water and get by until Butler is able to play. It remains to be seen just how good Butler will be coming off the injury.

If this doesn't work, they might have to be bold and find a different co-star.

Curry, 38, begins his 18th season. Golden State opens Oct. 21 at the Los Angeles Lakers.

Denver Nuggets

Denver went 54-28, finished third in the West, and lost in the first round, its third straight early playoff exit. The Nuggets had the league's best offense last season. Their defense ranked 21st for a second consecutive year.

Watson left in the sign-and-trade that sent him to Cleveland, and Bruce Brown is also gone. Denver signed DeMar DeRozan, 37, to a one-year deal. Alpha Diallo, the EuroLeague's defensive player of the year, joined as a 29-year-old rookie, and Marvin Bagley III, Trevon Brazile, and Bryce Hopkins also arrived.

Denver has basically been losing talent because of bad contracts and not being interested in paying into the luxury tax. They added replacement-level players this season who could complement the roster well, but they even lost Tim Hardaway Jr., who played a key role for their team. DeRozan brings a different type of impact, but this team has hit a wall recently.

If that happens again, it becomes a writing-on-the-wall situation. Nikola Jokić wants to win. They have a generational talent who has won multiple MVPs, and they can't let that go to waste.

They may have to look into making a bold change if this doesn't work. How bold? That remains to be seen. But with how financially gridlocked they've been, it could eventually involve everything being on the table outside of Jokic.

Jamal Murray set career highs with 25.4 points per game and a 62.2% true shooting percentage in 75 games. Aaron Gordon played 36. The Nuggets play 14 of their first 22 games on the road.

Houston Rockets

Houston went 52-30, finished fifth in the West, and lost in the first round for the second straight year. The Rockets had traded for Kevin Durant in the summer of 2025, sending Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, and the No. 10 pick to Phoenix.

Durant signed a two-year extension in October 2025. The second season is a player option, according to The Associated Press, so Durant can become a free agent next summer. He turns 38 on Sept. 29.

The Rockets are an interesting case because Durant is another star who is set to turn 38 before the season, and he doesn't have much time left to compete for a title.

This young team has to make strides. If their timelines don't match by the end of the season, they might have to take a step back and pivot, with Durant playing elsewhere and Houston getting compensated for his services in a trade.

That's really the big test: Are they ready to win with the final piece they added? If they're not, then the final piece may need to become somebody else's final piece.

Fred VanVleet returns after missing all of last season to injury. Amen Thompson signed a five-year, $208 million rookie extension before camp, and Marcus Smart, Bogdan Bogdanovic, and Bruce Thornton arrived. Houston opens Oct. 23 at San Antonio.

Orlando Magic

Orlando went 45-37 and led the top-seeded Detroit Pistons 3-1 in the first round. Franz Wagner then suffered a series-ending right calf strain in Game 4, and Detroit won the next three games. It was Orlando's third straight first-round exit.

The Magic fired Jamahl Mosley on May 4, after five seasons and a 189-221 record. Sean Sweeney, 41, the Spurs' associate head coach, was named his replacement June 1.

The Magic have been unable to break through in the Eastern Conference. They've dealt with a lot of injuries, but they also made a very sizable move to get Desmond Bane, and it was very expensive in terms of draft capital.

Orlando sent four first-round picks to the Memphis Grizzlies for Bane in June 2025. Bane, Paolo Banchero, Wagner, and Jalen Suggs all return. Last season, Wagner played 34 games and Suggs played 57.

If they can't succeed this season, then that puts Banchero, or really anybody, in the mix for evaluation. Banchero was not seeing eye to eye with Jamahl Mosley, and they changed coaches. When that starts to happen, it puts the situation on the radar.

Repeated short runs and shortcomings can only stack up for so long before significant changes take place.

Nikola Vucevic is back in Orlando, where he played from 2012 to 2021. Jonathan Isaac and Jevon Carter re-signed.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Minnesota went 49-33, finished sixth in the West, and lost to San Antonio in six games in the conference semifinals. Three of the four losses came by 29 points or more.

Tim Connelly traded Naz Reid and Julius Randle in a multi-team deal for LaMelo Ball, then signed Jonathan Kuminga to a two-year deal. Ball and Anthony Edwards are both 25.

Rudy Gobert has been such an instrumental part of this team and has anchored their defense, but he is going to be 35 next summer. Time is running out for this configuration of the Minnesota Timberwolves.

They've come very close numerous times, making multiple Western Conference finals appearances, but they took a step back last season in the postseason.

With San Antonio and Oklahoma City emerging as such major threats in the Western Conference, Minnesota runs the risk of continuing to run into better teams that are positioned to contend for the long haul.

It remains to be seen whether continued failure eventually creates pressure surrounding Edwards' future with the team. Edwards is such a dynamic player and could enter the MVP conversation this year. Now is the time for him to take that next leap and guide this team to a breakthrough and reach the Finals.

Minnesota could benefit from having more time, but they don't necessarily have that luxury with Gobert as their defensive anchor. They have that luxury with Edwards and Ball in the backcourt, but it's going to be very difficult to replace a rim protector of Gobert's caliber once he starts to decline.

This feels like a time when it has to happen, or they risk reaching the point where this particular configuration simply isn't going to get it done.

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