The Las Vegas Aces do not enter the closing stretch of the regular season as the WNBA’s clear championship favorite. The Minnesota Lynx have established themselves as the team to beat, while several challengers appear deeper and more consistent. Yet postseason basketball is rarely decided by the standings alone, and no contender possesses a more intimidating combination of star power, playoff experience and late-game confidence than the defending champions.
Las Vegas is 26-13, has secured its eighth consecutive playoff appearance and remains positioned to pursue a fourth championship in five seasons. The Aces have not controlled the league from beginning to end, but they have repeatedly demonstrated an ability to recover from poor stretches, adjust to opponents and elevate their execution when games become more meaningful.
How Healthy Is NaLyssa Smith
The main concern right now is NaLyssa Smith. The starting forward suffered a noncontact left knee injury during the third quarter of Las Vegas’ 88-78 victory over Toronto and had to be helped from the floor after being unable to place weight on her leg. The severity remained uncertain immediately afterward, but any prolonged absence would create a significant frontcourt problem.
The Texas native has started every game while averaging 11.7 points and 6.4 rebounds and shooting an exceptional 63.8% from the field. Her efficiency, rebounding and ability to play beside A'ja Wilson have given the Aces balance since she arrived last season.
Smith’s possible absence would force Becky Hammon to redistribute minutes among Cheyenne Parker-Tyus, Brianna Turner and smaller frontcourt combinations. It would also place an even greater burden on Wilson as a rebounder, interior scorer and rim protector.
That injury changes the degree of difficulty. But it does not eliminate Las Vegas from the championship conversation. As long as Wilson, Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray are available, the Aces retain the foundational pieces required to win three playoff rounds, and the institutional belief developed by a group that has already survived virtually every postseason circumstance.
2026 WNBA Championship Odds
| TEAM | ODDS (DraftKings) |
|---|---|
| Minnesota Lynx | -115 |
| Las Vegas Aces | +500 |
| Golden St. Valkyries | +800 |
| Atlanta Dream | +950 |
| Indiana Fever | +950 |
| New York Liberty | +1500 |
| Dallas Wings | +7500 |
| Washington Mystics | +8000 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Here are three reasons why the Aces can repeat as WNBA champs:
A'One MVP
Everything begins with Wilson, the league’s defining two-way force and the favorite to capture a fifth MVP award.
Wilson is averaging 26.0 points, 9.5 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 2.0 blocks while shooting better than 52% from the field. Those numbers only partially describe her influence. She can rescue a broken possession, score through double-teams, punish switches, control the defensive glass and protect the rim without requiring Las Vegas to change its offensive identity.
That versatility becomes even more valuable during the playoffs. Opponents can spend several days constructing a defensive scheme for Wilson, but there is no simple coverage capable of removing her. Guard her one-on-one, and she can overwhelm the matchup. Send a second defender, and she can create open shots for Young, Gray and the surrounding shooters.
Wilson also gives Las Vegas the most important advantage in close postseason games: the confidence that the best player on the floor is wearing an Aces uniform. She just earned the 32nd Western Conference Player of the Week award of her career, further illustrating the remarkable consistency behind her dominance.
𝑀'𝑽𝑃 in her element 🫡
For the 32nd time in her career, A’ja Wilson earns @wnba Western Conference Player of the Week honors. pic.twitter.com/cKQcE61mac
— Las Vegas Aces (@LVAces) August 25, 2026
Vegas' Trifecta
Las Vegas is not solely dependent on Wilson to generate every important basket. Young has developed into a true primary creator while using her strength to attack smaller guards and her speed to pressure larger defenders.
Gray supplies a different form of control. Her 6.8 assists per game reflect her vision, but her greater value is understanding when to accelerate, when to feed Wilson and when to manipulate a defense through the pick-and-roll. Few point guards are more comfortable organizing an offense during a tense fourth quarter.
Young is averaging career highs of 18.8 points and 6.6 assists per game, while chipping in 4.4 rebounds. She's also pouring in a career-best 2.3 threes per game.
Together, Wilson, Young and Gray give Hammon three elite decision-makers. That matters because playoff defenses are designed to eliminate the first action. Las Vegas can flow from a Wilson post-up into a Gray pick-and-roll or a Young isolation without placing the ball in the hands of an unproven creator.
Yes, Smith’s injury threatens their depth, but the Aces still have the talent and tactical flexibility to win inside, through the pick-and-roll, from the perimeter or with defense. The standings identify the Aces as contenders; their championship pedigree makes them considerably more dangerous.
Sunday W 😤
Wilson: 27 PTS / 7 REB / 7 AST / 2 STL / 67% FG
Young: 21 PTS / 5 AST / 3 REB / 50% FG#ALLINLV pic.twitter.com/CdJfHhiWXD— Las Vegas Aces (@LVAces) August 24, 2026
Unmatched Experience
The Aces understand the emotional and tactical demands of a playoff series. Wilson, Young, Gray and Hammon have won three championships together, including the 2025 title that made Las Vegas champions for the third time in four seasons.
They know how to respond after losing a game, attack a matchup repeatedly and remain composed when a series changes direction. Hammon has demonstrated a willingness to shorten her rotation, alter defensive assignments and abandon a preferred lineup when circumstances demand it.
That postseason memory does not guarantee another championship, but it removes much of the uncertainty facing younger contenders. Las Vegas has already experienced elimination games, hostile road environments and championship possessions. Its core will not be surprised when the pace slows and every mistake becomes magnified.
The Aces also recently answered a disappointing home loss to Atlanta by defeating Connecticut 101-78 and Toronto 88-78. They're 10-3 after a loss this season. Those responses have reinforced their ability to regain control quickly rather than allow one or two poor performances to become an extended downturn. Their ceiling remains higher despite their inconsistency.
W.G. Ramirez is a veteran sports writer from Las Vegas and a Staff Writer at Ballislife.com. Follow him on X at @WillieGRamirez.
