BREAKING NEWS

True WNBA Playoff Contenders: Buy or Sell for All 8 Teams

Grant Afseth September 17, 2026Fact checked by: Sara Jane Gamelli Be First

The WNBA regular season resumes Thursday after a 17-day break for the FIBA Women's World Cup, and all eight playoff spots are already clinched. Minnesota is the current No. 1 seed and could clinch home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. Four games remain for every team, and the regular season ends Sept. 24.

WNBA Minnesota Lynx 2026 Olivia Miles Napheesa Collier
(Photo by Matthew Huang/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Atlanta and Indiana are tied at 26-14. New York, Washington, and Dallas are tied at 24-16. The playoffs open Sept. 27 with best-of-three first-round series, followed by best-of-five semifinals and a best-of-seven WNBA Finals.

Records and statistics below are through 40 games, as of the break.

Related Stories

No related stories defined.

Minnesota Lynx (31-9)

Verdict: Buy.

Olivia Miles has run the offense at an elite level as a rookie, and Napheesa Collier is back from injury. The talent is all there if health allows.

Minnesota leads the WNBA with a +9.5 net rating. The Lynx rank second in offensive rating at 113.0 and second in defensive rating at 103.5. Miles, the second overall pick, averages 19.7 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 6.0 assists. Since Collier returned to the starting lineup after ankle surgery, Minnesota is 10-3, with Collier at 18.0 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 2.8 assists in that stretch.

Natasha Howard gives Minnesota the option to play small and make opposing bigs guard in space, which is a problem for teams built around a traditional frontcourt.

Courtney Williams sprained her right midfoot Aug. 21 against Washington. She missed an 80-66 home loss to Golden State three days later, which ended her streak of 196 consecutive games played. Minnesota also lost at Atlanta on Aug. 30.

Golden State Valkyries (29-11)

Verdict: Buy.

Golden State could still use another piece offensively. The defense is too strong to overlook, and Gabby Williams has helped the Valkyries take another step.

The Valkyries allow 99.8 points per 100 possessions, the only defensive rating in the league under 100. Its +9.4 net rating trails Minnesota by a tenth of a point. Golden State plays at 90.78 possessions per game, the slowest pace in the WNBA. Its offensive rating of 109.1 ranks seventh.

Williams averages 14.3 points and 1.6 steals. Janelle Salaün has 492 points off the bench, which Last Word on Sports reported as a WNBA record for a reserve.

On Aug. 24, Golden State won 80-66 at Target Center for its first win over Minnesota in 10 meetings. The previous nine losses included last year's first-round sweep. Valkyries coach Natalie Nakase is the reigning Coach of the Year.

Las Vegas Aces (27-13)

Verdict: Buy.

All bets are off when A'ja Wilson is at her peak, and she is still playing at an MVP level. She also spent the World Cup break at home while much of the league was in Berlin.

Wilson withdrew from Team USA's roster Aug. 31 for health reasons, along with Kelsey Plum. She had appeared on the injury report twice in the previous week with a back issue and played 30 minutes in the Aces' last game before the break. Caitlin Clark, Angel Reese, Paige Bueckers, Breanna Stewart, Napheesa Collier, Chelsea Gray, Jackie Young, and Rhyne Howard all played in Germany.

Wilson leads the WNBA at 26.0 points per game and at 2.0 blocks per game. The four-time MVP carries a league-high 32.8% usage rate. Las Vegas ranks third in offensive rating at 112.1, and its 1.79 assist-to-turnover ratio ranks second.

The defending champions lost NaLyssa Smith to a season-ending left knee injury Aug. 23 in Vancouver. She went down in the third quarter of an 88-78 win over the Toronto Tempo. Smith led the league at 63.8% from the field and often guarded opposing centers.

Wilson spoke after the win in Vancouver.

"God has his hands on (Smith)," Wilson said. "We're going to continue to be beside her through the whole process, but it is like Becky (Hammon) says, 'Man down, man up.'"

Young averages a career-high 18.9 points, along with 4.4 rebounds and 6.6 assists. Gray adds 12.0 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 6.8 assists. The Aces allow 107.0 points per 100 possessions, sixth in the league. Their +5.0 net rating ranks fifth.

Atlanta Dream (26-14)

Verdict: Sell.

Atlanta has thrived with Angel Reese, who has given the Dream an edge defensively. There still might not be quite enough here to win the whole thing.

Reese averages 16.1 points and 12.4 rebounds. In August, she set a WNBA single-game record with 26 rebounds. The Dream lead the league with a 36.5% offensive rebounding rate and a 73.2% defensive rebounding rate. Atlanta allows 105.0 points per 100 possessions, fourth in the WNBA.

The shooting is where it gets thin. Atlanta's 50.1% effective field goal percentage ranks 11th, and its 55.3% true shooting percentage ranks 10th. Rhyne Howard has made a league-high 128 3-pointers, and Allisha Gray scores 19.3 points per game.

Atlanta signed 17-year veteran DeWanna Bonner in late August and beat Minnesota on Aug. 30. Its +6.2 net rating ranks fourth. Bonner provides much-needed depth after the Dream announced Brionna Jones will miss the remainder of the 2026 season.

Indiana Fever (26-14)

Verdict: Buy.

Indiana's offense has been high-powered enough that counting the Fever out is hard. They went far last season without Caitlin Clark, and now they have her to make plays and score at a high level. If they get hot at the right time, watch out.

Clark missed the 2025 postseason after a groin injury ended her season in July, and Indiana still beat Atlanta in a decisive Game 3 to reach the semifinals for the first time since 2015.

Indiana leads the WNBA with a 115.9 offensive rating. The Fever also lead the league in effective field goal percentage at 56.7% and true shooting percentage at 61.1%. Kelsey Mitchell averages 25.0 points and has scored 20 or more in 25 straight games, which Last Word on Sports reported as a league record. Clark averages 22.5 points and a league-leading 8.4 assists. Aliyah Boston adds 16.9 points and 8.3 rebounds.

The Fever allow 108.4 points per 100 possessions, 10th in the league. Their +7.4 net rating ranks third. Indiana plays Minnesota twice in the final week.

New York Liberty (24-16)

Verdict: Sell.

New York has played without Satou Sabally since June 23, when she took an elbow to the face in the first quarter of a win at Las Vegas. She suffered a concussion in Game 3 of the 2025 WNBA Finals with Phoenix. Before the June injury, Sabally averaged 10.4 points in 13 games. Without her, it will be difficult to make a deep playoff run. 

Liberty coach Chris DeMarco met with reporters at Barclays Center before an 85-81 win over the Los Angeles Sparks on Aug. 13.

"She's going to be away from the team for a little bit," DeMarco said. "It's her second significant head injury in the past 12 months. So, as with all our players, health will always be the focus, and we look forward to getting her back. She's just going to take some time right now."

Breanna Stewart averages 20.4 points. Jonquel Jones is averaging 14.6 points and 9.0 rebounds. New York turns the ball over on 18.0% of its possessions, and its +3.7 net rating ranks seventh.

Washington Mystics (24-16)

Verdict: Sell.

Washington is still building up the organization and is not quite ready to contend.

The Mystics have the youngest roster in the WNBA and won seven straight games in August. They allow 103.8 points per 100 possessions, third in the league, and lead the WNBA with a 54.4% rebounding rate.

Washington's 103.2 offensive rating ranks 13th. The Mystics turn the ball over on 19.8% of their possessions, the highest rate in the league. Their -0.6 net rating is the only negative mark among the eight playoff teams.

Shakira Austin averages 16.8 points and 9.4 rebounds. Sonia Citron also scores 16.8 points per game, and Kiki Iriafen has 20 double-doubles. Citron and Iriafen replaced Wilson and Plum on the Team USA World Cup roster.

Dallas Wings (24-16)

Verdict: Sell.

Golden State beat Dallas 78-70 at Chase Center on Aug. 17 and held the Wings to their second-lowest point total of the season. The sixth seed opens at Las Vegas. Seventh means a trip to Golden State, and eighth means Minnesota at Target Center.

Dallas lost Azzi Fudd, the first overall pick and 3-Point Contest champion, to season-ending knee surgery. The Wings went 5-5 in their last 10 games before the break.

Paige Bueckers averages 20.5 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 5.9 assists. Jessica Shepard is at 14.4 points and 11.1 rebounds, with four triple-doubles. Dallas leads the WNBA with a 1.81 assist-to-turnover ratio, and its 15.0% turnover rate is tied with Golden State for the league's lowest. Dallas' +4.4 net rating ranks sixth.

The 2026 WNBA Playoffs first round (best-of-three) will begin on Sept. 27. You can find the full postseason schedule here. 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *


The reCAPTCHA verification period has expired. Please reload the page.