
Fans of trading on crypto will find plenty to enjoy at crypto prediction markets. These allow you to buy and sell contracts that pay out if a given crypto event happens or doesn't happen.
When trading these contracts, you can watch the price shift in real time and sell or trade your shares when the numbers are most favorable. Or you can wait for the contract to settle for the listed amount. What’s more, you get to trade instantly and safely, as these sites are legally available in many jurisdictions.
So, how does event prediction markets work? These are platforms that let you trade contracts tied to specific future events. Typically, these are Yes or No contracts that will pay $1 if an event does or doesn't happen.
Say right now you hop on Polymarket and buy 100 contracts stating that the price of Bitcoin will go up by Friday. You manage to get the contracts at $0.60 per contract for a total of $60. Since each contract is worth $1, when Friday rolls along, if the price of Bitcoin does rise, the 100 contracts will settle for $100. And you pocket the $40 profit.
But what happens if you don't want to wait for the contract to settle? That's where the dynamism of crypto prediction markets comes in. As long as there are people willing to buy or sell a contract, you can keep trading. This allows you to lock in your profit early, or to exit a position if the outcome starts to appear less likely.
Let's take the 100 contracts we mentioned above as an example. You bought them $0.60 each for a total of $60. If two days later you get cold feet and decide to sell when the price of the contract drops to $0.40, you can get $40 for the sale, limiting the losses to just $20.
We've covered the basics of what is a prediction market. But what about the options available? Different prediction sites offer different markets for users to explore. Here are some examples:
If you were looking for crypto trading markets, you would want nothing short of a brilliant prediction market. Below are short but in-depth reviews of two of the most popular apps.
| Site | Crypto categories | Liquidity | Fee structure | Suitable for beginners? |
| Kalshi | Coin Price Thresholds, Crypto Market Caps, Performance | High | $0.07 - $1.75 taker's fees | Yes |
| Polymarket | Price Thresholds, Market Caps, Special Events Like New Assets Launching | Fairly High | No additional fees | Yes |
If you have a keen eye for virtual coins and their growth or decline, Kalshi offers up a wealth of trading opportunities for event contracts related to BTC, ETH, and more. The platform also allows you to buy event contracts on a wide variety of propositions relating to technology, climate, and entertainment. This makes the site an ideal tool for first-timers.
All you have to do is answer Yes or No to questions about future events. The price ranges from $0.01 to $0.99 and is updated in real time, giving you the chance to sell or buy a contract at any time. The website is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), a US-based regulatory body that works to ensure integrity in the derivatives trading industry.
Generally, Kalshi is quick and easy to use because of the simple navigation and the built-in comprehensive guide. You can also download an app for an Android or iPhone smartphone so that you can play from anywhere, anytime.
Established in 2020 and based in Manhattan, New York, Polymarket serves up a comforting number of crypto-related prediction contracts, particularly concerning thresholds. You get to forecast peak prices for major coins or market caps for startup currencies like Lighter. For flexible liquidity, you can pick markets concluding in 15 minutes, 1 hour, a day, a week, or a month.
And just like Kalshi, this site uses simplified Yes or No propositions. The site also presents sports prediction contracts to spice things up. You can get started on Polymarket in a jiffy, and you can fund your account via cryptocurrency on Coinbase and Moonpay or through credit cards. The best part is that the predictions trading app does not charge additional fees on deposits and payouts.
Another aspect that makes Polymarket stand out is its Liquidity Rewards program. Here, you can collect incentives just by making trades on the app. Polymarket is an ideal platform for pro-traders with interests in major crypto coins. You can follow socials to get interesting insights on various events from an active community of like-minded users.
Understandably, it’s very easy for users to get excited instantly. However, we can’t overstate the importance of carrying out an intensive comparison of the available websites. Here are some features we consider when ranking crypto prediction sites.
One of the first steps to take in determining the best prediction market sites is to compare the availability of options on at least three apps. The ideal predictions trading site would offer a mixed bag of top coins like BTC or ETH and new altcoins such as Lighter. This gives you a lot of options to research and find an edge.
You want to pick a site that offers beginner guides to help you get started. The navigation system also has to be smooth, on both desktop and mobile versions. A native mobile app is undoubtedly a plus.
You will certainly notice that the prices on prediction markets are different from traditional odds. Prediction sites display prices in the simplest format, usually with dollar values between $0.01 and $0.99, reflecting crowd opinion. You also need to understand the costs of event trading. The site may include taker's fees and gas fees, and this potentially eats into your profits. When comparing crypto prediction market websites, pick the ones that make their pricing structures transparent and easy to understand.
It is not enough to just have raw data. Therefore, a prediction site must offer simplified tools that can help you make informed choices. As a beginner, you may not even know how to read market prices, but with prediction history, stats, and live updates, you can get in the game quicker.
Are prediction markets legal in the US? Quite a critical question, and the answer is shifting pretty much every day. All prediction market apps operating within the USA must be regulated through the CFTC, and users have to be at least 18 years old. CFTC is responsible for ensuring compliance and accountability, so when comparing options, make sure the sites you’re considering are regulated by the CFTC and legal in the US.
Once you’ve picked the suitable site, getting started at crypto prediction markets is easy. You can follow these steps to sign up and start trading.
Click the banners on this page to visit a prediction market website.
Create an account using your email and password. Alternatively, you can sign up via Google or Apple.
Complete the account registration by submitting your birth date, phone number, and other personal details.
Activate 2 Factor Authentication, then make a deposit
Research and pick prediction markets that appeal to you the most and buy contracts.
Wait for the price to appreciate or for the market to conclude and cash out.
Here are the key advantages and disadvantages of using crypto prediction market apps.
Prediction markets have a transparent system so that you buy contracts or shares based on the outcome of a future event, such as the rise or fall of a specific coin. If the price moves up, you can sell the contract at a profit. Some of the common options for event contracts include forecasting market caps for new crypto currencies or trading contracts tied to Bitcoin price fluctuations.
Click the banners on this page to join prediction apps such as Polymarket and Kalshi and start trading event prediction contracts.
You participate in crypto prediction markets where users buy and sell contracts relating to the outcome of crypto future events.
Conventional sportsbooks offer odds that reflect what you would win if your prediction lands. But Kalshi is a crypto prediction market. Users can buy shares tied to the outcome of events and sell them to make a profit if market sentiment pushes the prices up.
All event contracts resolve for a fixed amount within a specific period. Until then, the trading price of the contract is driven primarily by the volume of buyers for Yes and No contracts. You can cash out before the settlement if you are satisfied with the price hike on your shares.