Tonight, is an important Game 4 for the Miami Heat. The Denver Nuggets beat the Miami Heat 109-94 in Game 3 of the NBA Finals on the road. According to Draft Kings, “When the NBA Finals have been tied 1-1, the winner of Game 3 has gone on to win the series 32 out of 40 times (80%). The 1 Seed Denver Nuggets (14-4, 5-3 Away) will face off against the 8th Seed Miami Heat (13-8, 6-3 Home). These teams will play tonight at 8:30 PM EST, at the Kaseya Center, located in Miami, Florida. In addition, the matchup will air on ABC. If you are looking for the best betting odds and stats, here is information to know:
Game 4: Denver Nuggets @ Miami Heat (2-1)
Miami: +130 ML
Denver: -150 ML
Spread: Denver -3, Miami +3
Game 3: Denver 109- Miami 94
Betting Odds: Denver -3.5, 212.5.
Betting Results: Denver Money Line, UNDER.
Denver Nuggets Statistics
FG: 51.2 %
3 PT: 27.8 %
PTS in Paint: 60
Miami Heat Statistics
FG: 37 %
3 PT: 31.5 %
PTS in Paint: 34
With the series tied 1-1, the Denver Nuggets’ biggest stars showed up on the biggest stage. In fact, Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic were the first two players to both have triple-doubles in NBA Finals History. The Nuggets struggled from the three, however, learned to score from the mid-range and outrebounded Miami by more than 30 points.
Miami is definition of a team that plays from behind, however, they couldn’t get it done this game. The Heat shot nearly 30 percent from the three and couldn’t buy a field goal. Combine that with Denver’s monstrous rebounding game, it’s hard to believe the Heat lost by only 15 points. Jimmy Butler finished the game with 28 points, and Bam Adebayo with 22 points. Much like Denver, there wasn’t much production from their bench players or role players. It’s important to note all of the Heat’s 5 starters finished negative on the court.
For Denver, Michael Porter Jr. continued his struggles, and we saw Aaron Gordon grab plenty of rebounds. However, Gordon was unsuccessful in many attempts at the rim, and we saw him struggle with putbacks at times. Caldwell-Pope struggled in 28 minutes played and finished with 6 points. Like Miami’s Duncan Robinson, Guard Christian Braun was the x-factor in Game 3. In 19 minutes, Braun scored 15 points, grabbed 4 rebounds, and shot 100 percent from the line, and 87.5 percent from the field. With their role players struggling, Braun was exactly what the Nuggets needed. He caught fire late in the game off the bench and provided an unexpected spark for Denver. His play included a crucial steal and dunk, which came late in the game. For someone who only averages 3.1 points in the playoffs, Braun could be the player Denver needs to support Murray and Jokic.
G Collin Gillespie (OUT): Leg.
PG Tyler Herro (OUT): Hand
SG Victor Oladipo (OUT): Knee.
•Denver averages 114.8 points per game.
•Miami averages 109.9 points per game.
•Denver ranks 5th in points allowed with 106.6 opponent points per game.
•Miami ranks 6th in points allowed with 107.4 opponent points per game.
•Denver ranks 5th in rebounds per game with 44.7.
•Miami ranks 11th in rebounds per game with 40.2.
•Denver ranks 1st in point differential at +8.2.
•Miami ranks 2nd in point differential at +3.3.
•Denver ranks 12th in blocked shots with 3.5 per game.
•Miami ranks 16th in blocked shots with 3.4 per game.
•Denver averages 37.9 percent from the 3-point range, while Miami averages 38.8 percent from the 3-point range.
LAST 10 GAMES + GAME PREDICTION:
SPREAD: Miami +3.5
-Denver covered the spread in 6 of their last 10 games (6-4-0).
-Miami covered the spread in 6 of their last 10 games (6-4-0).
–Denver has a 55-44-1 record ATS this season.
-Miami has a 45-57-3 record ATS this season.
–Miami is 21-29-2 in HOME games ATS this season.
-Denver is 24-25-0 in AWAY games ATS this season.
Miami is coming off a Game 3 loss at home against Denver suffered a 15-point deficit. Additionally, the Heat shot 31 percent from the three, and 37 percent from the field. I expect Miami to apply the pressure and hit their shots this game. I like Miami +3.5.
MONEY LINE: Miami Heat ML.
-Denver won the Money Line 8 out of their last 10 games.
-Miami won the Money Line 5 of their last 10 games.
It would be corporate to say the Denver Nuggets have Game 4 with the exceptional play of Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic. Erik Spoelstra is one of the best coaches in NBA History for a reason. Ultimately, it starts with head coach Spoelstra and ends with super star Jimmy Butler. Although Butler had a decent offensive game, we’ve seen him more explosive, especially in Game 4 against Milwaukee. Besides Butler and Adebayo, the rest of the Heat struggled.
According to ESPN, Jimmy Butler quoted, “We’re going to come out with a lot more energy,” Butler said. “We’re going to compete at a high level. We’re going to get one at home.” Butler must start the night out right and set the tone for his teammates. The Heat will need Strus, Gabe Vincent, and Caleb Martin to have huge games as well. The Nuggets are hot and won 8 out of their last 10 games. Furthermore, Miami is 5-5 is their last 10. I think Miami steals Game 4 at home. They must shoot better, match or outrebound Denver, keep up their defensive tempo, and get Butler going to win. Give me Heat Money Line.
-Denver Avg +/- vs O/U Line: -1.65..
-Miami Avg +/- vs O/U Line: +0.33.
-Denver Overall O/U Record: 47-52-1.
–Miami Overall O/U Record: 53-52-0.
-Denver Overall AWAY O/U Record: 25-24-0.
–Miami Overall HOME O/U Record: 27-25-0.
-Denver hit the UNDER 6 times in their last 10 games.
-Miami hit the UNDER 6 times in their last 10 games.
Two of the three games hit the Under, and I expect the same this game. It’s important to note Game 3 hit the under, including triple-doubles from Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic. I don’t expect them to have those same numbers in Game 4, and I expect Miami to come up with a defensive plan, especially for Murray. If these two teams continue to struggle from the three, I can almost smell an under already. Unless if they improve the shooting, I like the UNDER here.
Sara Jane is a full-time Content Creator, focusing on both college basketball, the NBA, NFL, and Writer of Ballislife.com. Don’t forget to follow her on Twitter/YouTube/Twitch/Kick/ Instagram: @GGirlSports.
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