There are two prime time games on the NBA Slate for tonight. The Milwaukee Bucks (24-10, 8-7 away) will matchup against the San Antonio Spurs (5-28, 2-14 home) on the road tonight. With tip off at 10 p.m. ET, the Golden State Warriors (16-17, 10-8 home) will host the Denver Nuggets (24-11, 10-8 away) at home. In this article, I've provided my best picks for tonight. If you're looking to bet on the NBA, both games will air on TNT, beginning at 7:30 p.m. ET. With these picks, you can group them into a parlay, or take them as straight bets. Here you will find the NBA betting odds, stats, trends, player prop bets, and predictions for Thursday, Jan. 4.
It's GIANNIS vs. WEMBY and JOKIC vs. STEPH tonight on TNT!
— NBA (@NBA) January 4, 2024
📲 https://t.co/j7XaSJX9DR pic.twitter.com/wvUhivNxAq
NBA Daily Game Odds for 1/4
*Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook*
Milwaukee Bucks (-9) (-420) @ San Antonio Spurs (+330): O/U 247.5
Nuggets (-3.5) @ Warriors (+142): O/U 235.8
3 Leg Parlay Odds: +260 (25 % Boost) .6u
NBA Bet #1 Milwaukee Bucks -9
The Milwaukee Bucks will face the San Antonio Spurs on the road tonight. Coming off a 142-130 loss against the Indiana Pacers, the Bucks will play their second consecutive game. For the Spurs, they are coming off three straight losses, against the Grizzlies, Celtics, and Trail Blazers.
2-8 in their last ten games, the Spurs have just two home victories, and racked up only two wins since the beginning of November. With victories over the Lakers and Trail Blazers, the Spurs continue to go through it.
With that said, the Milwaukee Bucks are 24-10, and 1st in the Central Division. However, they're coming off two straight losses against the Indiana Pacers, and haven't quite found their stride defensively and with chemistry. While Kendrick Perkins recently stated not many people are fearing the deer, he's not exactly wrong. 7-3 in their last ten matchups, the Bucks are cold, winning just two of the last five games.
While the Bucks are 15-18-1 against the spread, the Spurs have a record of 13-20-0. Both teams not great at covering spreads, Milwaukee is 1-0 against San Antonio, winning the last two meetings. Having most recently met on Dec. 19, the Bucks carried away the 132- 119 victory over the Spurs, in which San Antonio covered the 16.5 underdog spread. Winning the last two matchups by more than nine points, I will take that spread tonight. Over the last two games, Milwaukee has a 24.5 point differential, which is almost 15 points high than what the spread is at tonight.
This is a must win for Milwaukee
Tonight is a must win for Milwaukee, especially coming off those loses. They face a Spurs team, who's averaging under 100 points in the last few matchups against the Grizzlies and Celtics. While the public has heavily scrutinized the Detroit Pistons, the San Antonio Spurs have equally been a disaster this season.
Through 33 games played, the Spurs rank near last in offensive efficiency (107.1), and 25th in defensive rating (118.7). Allowing close to 123 opponent points per game, San Antonio is atrocious at defending the perimeter, and allow teams to shoot 49 percent from the field. Even with rookie sensation Victor Wembanyama, the Spurs surrender 46.8 rebounds per game, which is second to last, next to Washington.
San Antonio has growing pains
Unfortunately, the statistics don't lie, and things don't get much better for the Spurs on the offensive end. One of the worst three-point shooting squads, they put up a low 110 points per game. Only shooting 45 percent as a squad, they also turn the ball over 15 times a game, which is a high rate.
While defense has been a problem for Milwaukee, they still remain one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference, ranking third overall in offensive rating. With Lillard still adjusting to his new team, there have been some inconsistencies. With Giannis a nightly double-double machine, these two teams truly don't compare on paper. For the Spurs to cover, the Bucks would have to collapse, and choose to sit out their main players.
If you're betting on the NBA, my best pick is for Milwaukee to cover the spread tonight. 5-5 against the spread in their last ten games, they are averaging more than 10 points more per game than the Spurs. Averaging 128 points over the last ten games, the Spurs only average 114. While San Antonio head coach Greg Popovich is well respected, the Spurs are one of the youngest teams in the league (24 years). With the Spurs continue to display growing pains, the Bucks average 124.4 points on the road.
The Spurs average around seven points more per game at home, however, I can't see them covering the spread tonight.
Giannis arrives for @Bucks action in San Antonio!
— NBA on TNT (@NBAonTNT) January 4, 2024
🆚 Bucks vs. Spurs
📺 7:30 PM ET pic.twitter.com/0t6AmVoOUv
NBA Bet # 2: Jamal Murray 20 + Points
Jamal up to five three-pointers in the game 🏹
— Denver Nuggets (@nuggets) January 2, 2024
25 PTS / 3 REB / 7 AST pic.twitter.com/dAxhmGNSgt
Season Stats PPG: 19.7 | FG: 46.9 % | 3 PT: 34.6 % | FT: 88.7 % | REB: 3.9 | AST: 6.2 | STL: 0.9 | BLK: 0.8
If there's any NBA betting prop I love tonight, It's Jamal Murray to have 20+ points scored against the Golden State Warriors. Averaging 19.7 points, Murray is putting up 21 points on 45.8 percent three-point, and 47.9 percent field goal shooting over a stretch of ten games. Murray, now in his seventh season with the Nuggets, is averaging a career-highs from the three-point line.
Back from injury, Murray hit 20 + points in 53 percent of games this season. However, he's been more consistent as of late, nailing this prop in the last seven of eight games. Coming off a 25 point performance against the Charlotte Hornets, Murray hit over 20 points in nine of twelve games in the month of December.
Despite playing just 21 games this season, the former Wildcat is fourth in field goal attempts, behind Nikola Jokic, Michael Porter Jr., and Reggie Jackson. Second in points per game scored for the Nuggets this season, Murray leads Denver in field goal attempts with 163 over the last 10 games. While Porter Jr. is an important contributor of this team, Murray and Jokic remain the heavy hitters in terms of points scored.
Speaking of Jokic, he's been taking a back seat the last couple of games, scoring just 13 points against Charlotte, and 19 points against Oklahoma City. With the Joker distributing the ball more and dominating on the boards, it's left Murray with exceptional volume shooting.
In one game against the Warriors, Murray is averaging 28 points on 60 percent shooting from downtown, and 55.6 percent from the field. With Chris Paul returning to the lineup, Murray should have both matchups against him and Steph Curry.
Murray's been consistent
If you're betting on the NBA, I love this prop for a multitude of reasons. Not only has Murray been on of their most consistent scorers, he's averaging 29 points per game in the last three meetings against Golden State. In fact, dating back to Feb. 2023, the guard hasn't scored less than 26 points against the Bay.
Averaging 16.3 field goal attempts in the last 10 games, Murray is coming off a five three-pointer night. Playing around 30 minutes through the month of December, it's safe to say the volume and minutes are there for him to hit this prop tonight.
Although they will be in the Bay Area, Murray hit this prop in four straight road games, including 32 points against the Brooklyn Nets on Dec. 22. A 77 percent hit rate in the last 15 road games, he faces the Warriors, who allow the 20th most points (116.3) in the NBA. While Golden State has put together several starting lineups, they've actually improved with perimeter defending. Besides that, they rank 19th in field goal attempts, and 18th in three-point attempts per game.
Why I like this prop tonight
Most recently, this is a Warriors team that's allowed guards to ball out. In the month of December, Tyler Herro, Anfernee Simons, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Jordan Poole, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cam Thomas, James Harden, Devil Booker, Norman Powell, among others all scored over 20 points. Coming off two days rest, Murray hit this prop in four of five games, and 11 of the last 15.
With the line originally at 22.5 points scored, Murray hit that through six games, and he is often overlooked by Jokic. While Denver expressed they play to win, and not for stats, Murray should hit this prop tonight. Able to score from anywhere on the court, Murray is averaging 21 points in the last 5 matchups. Given this is a primetime matchup on TNT, expect this to be a intense matchup tonight.
NBA Bet #3 Jonathan Kuminga O 3.5 Rebounds
A Curry & Kuminga combo of 55 points last night 📈 pic.twitter.com/Lhcr152T5n
— Golden State Warriors (@warriors) January 3, 2024
Season Stats PPG: 12.7 | FG: 50.2 % | 3 PT: 28.4 % | FT: 67.8 % | REB: 4.1 | AST: 1.3 | STL: 0.6 | BLK: 0.3
In his third season with the Warriors, Jonathan Kuminga is averaging career highs in points , minutes, and rebounds. With Draymond Green out due to a suspension, the forward has taken advantage of playing time, starting 11 of 32 games played this season. In fact, his 19 point, two block, four assist, and six rebound performance against the Magic left head coach Steve Kerr impressed.
Praised for his ability to play on both sides of the ball, at 6 foot 7, Kuminga is averaging 14.5 points and 5.5 in his last ten games. More impressive, he had 12 boards against OKC this month, including nine against the Dallas Mavericks. While he's certainly earned more minutes as a member of the Warriors moving forward, he's made important strides this season in becoming a two-way player.
With the line moved to 3.5, Kuminga hit over the prop total 54 percent this season. While getting more starts of recent, the third year forward grabbed over 3.5 boards in 12 straight games, and 100 percent in the last 10. With the Warriors at home tonight, he's hit his rebound props in seven consecutive games at the Chase Center, and in 80 percent of the last ten. With an average of 5.8 rebounds in the last seven games, I'm even confident taking the 4.5. Over the last ten games, he hasn't grabbed anything less than four volumes. That right there speaks volume, especially against a Denver team that isn't great defensively against power forwards.
He's been impactful for the Warriors
If you're betting on the NBA, Kuminga has made an impact, especially with Draymond Green away from the team. While there isn't a set date for Green to return, I will continue to ride these props. Tonight, the Warriors get the Nuggets, who rank 12th overall in rebounds (43), 11th in offensive boards, and 18th in defensive rebounds.
While Jokic is a presence down below, the Nuggets allowed P.J. Washington, Jaylin Williams, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Dario Saric to all hit over 3.5 rebounds over the last few weeks. With a 60 percent hit rate in five games against the Nuggets, Kuminga hasn't had a problem on the glass against Denver. Able to hit over 3.5 rebounds in two straight games against the Nuggets, the forward has a combined nine rebounds.
Ranked as the second best rebounding team (46.9) behind the Boston Celtics, the Warriors will heavily rely on a mix of their starting lineup for boards. While Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. are also great rebounders, I truly believe 3.5 is a low line for Kuminga.
Coming off one day of rest, Kuminga has been spectacular on the boards of late, grabbing over 3.5 in five of six games, including those 12 against the Thunder. Able to clear 5+ rebounds in five straight games, he also has an average of 10.6 rebound chances over those last five matchups.
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Sara Jane Gamelli is a full-time Sportswriter at Ballislife, and Sports Content Creator on Twitch and TikTok. She has a focus on the NBA, WNBA, NCAA Basketball, and the NFL. Sara Jane currently resides in Connecticut/NYC area with her Cat and Dog. SJ has her undergraduate degree from the University of Connecticut in Economics, with a minor in business administration.