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NBA Betting: Daily Odds & Predictions for Dec. 11

Sara Jane Gamelli 3872 December 11, 2023 No Comments

Written and edited by:

Sara Jane Gamelli

The NBA In-Season Tournament has concluded, and there are 13 games on the NBA Slate today. Beginning at 7 p.m. and 10:30 p.m. ET, there are several key matchups in both conferences. Will the Detroit Pistons let their losing streak slide to 20 straight games? Can the San Antonio Spurs snap a 16- game losing skid?  Here you will find the NBA betting odds, stats, trends, player prop bets, and predictions for Monday, Dec. 11.

NBA Daily Game Odds for 12/11

*Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Pacers (-7) (-278) @ Pistons (+225): O/U 247
  • Wizards (+490) @ 76ers (-12) (-675): O/U 244.5
  • Heat (-4) (-166) @ Hornets (+140): O/U 221
  • Cavaliers (+105) @ Magic (-1.5) (-125): O/U 227
  • Nuggets (-2.5) (-142) @ Hawks (+120): O/U 241.5
  • Raptors (+150) @ Knicks (-4.5) (-180): O/U 221
  • Bulls (+425) @ Bucks (-11.5) (-575): O/U 233
  • Mavericks (-1.5) (-122) @ Grizzlies (+102): O/U 227
  • Jazz (+525) @ Thunder (-12.5) (-750): O/U 233
  • Spurs (+280) @ Rockets (-8.5)(-355): O/U 225
  • Timberwolves (+136) @ Pelicans (-3.5) (-162): O/U 222.5
  • Nets (+154) @ Kings (-4.5) (-185): O/U 236
  • Trail Blazers (+575) @ Clippers (-13) (-850): O/U 220

NBA Bet #1: Minnesota Timberwolves +4 (-105)

The Minnesota Timberwolves (17-4, 7-3 away) will matchup against the New Orleans Pelicans (12-11, 8-4 home) on the road tonight. While the Pelicans were blown out 133-89 in the tournament semifinals, Minnesota has cruised to 6 straight victories. With Anthony Edwards listed as a game time decision for the Timberwolves, they currently hold the best record in the NBA.

While the line continues to move, I grabbed Minnesota at +4 at -105. Even with Edwards listed as questionable, this Timberwolves team are the real deal. Known for the defensive prowess, the Wolves lead the NBA in defensive rating (106.2). With that said, the Wolves, led by head coach Chris Finch, are second in the league in defensive rebounding (36.1). Off to their best start in franchise history, a large part of their defensive success can be accredited to Center Rudy Gobert. Gobert, previously acquired from the Utah Jazz, ranks third among all big men in boards per game. An elite rim protector, Gobert ranks 10th overall in defended field goals attempted (17.8).

Over their 6 game win streak, Minnesota still leads the NBA in defensive efficiency, limiting teams to just 44.1 points in the paint, second behind Chicago and Memphis. Second in blocks (6.6) over the winning streak, the Timberwolves have the best free-throw percentage. Limiting opponents to a low 105.2 points per game, Finch's squad has a +7.8 point differential, second behind the Boston Celtics. With consecutive victories over the Memphis Grizzlies, San Antonio Spurs, Charlotte Hornets, Utah Jazz, and Oklahoma City Thunder, they will get a tough test tonight. While only one of those opponents are above .500, the Pelicans are 3-2 in their last five games.

Overall, the Timberwolves are not favored in this game, especially since they are on the road. 7-3 in away games, Minnesota is 12-9-0 against the spread, compared to the Pelicans, who are 13-9-1. 4-5 against the spread in road games, the Timberwolves have been able to cover the spread three consecutive games away from Minnesota. Although averaging only 113 points a game, the the Wolves have one of the best field goal percentages league wide (48.1 %).

Minnesota is a defensive powerhouse

There's no question why Minnesota are underdogs, especially with injuries to Jordan McLaughlin, Jaden McDaniels, and now Edwards uncertain to suit up. While averaging 113 points during their win streak, they've limited the past 6 opponents to 100 points per game. Even without McDaniels, who is an underrated defender, this team has figured out how to win games. The best of 4 regular season series, Minnesota holds a 2-0 lead over New Orleans, including a 121-120 thrilling victory in New Orleans early on this season.

As I previously stated, the Pelicans are one of my favorite teams this season, especially when healthy. A team that shoots 35.7 percent from long range will now face a Wolves team thats holding opposing teams to 33.6 % shooting beyond the arc. While New Orleans has a magnitude of talent with Zion Williamson, C.J. McCollum, Brandon Ingram, and so forth, it's concerning they laid an egg against the Lakers. With Williamson and Ingram held to 22 combined points, New Orleans couldn't find their stride anywhere on the hardwood. Back and healthy, Williamson has gone missing, putting up a combined 23 points in the last two matchups.

This season, the Pelicans are an average team on both sides of the ball. While the Timberwolves haven't allowed a team to score over 103 points over the last 6 games, their defense should be able to keep the Pelicans in check, and this game fairly close tonight. In their last 10 games head-to head, Minnesota has a win/loss record of 6-4, and covered the spread 4 of the last 5 meetings. If you're betting on the NBA, I'm picking Minnesota to cover.

NBA Bet #2: OKC Thunder -12.5 (-112)

The Oklahoma City Thunder (14-7, 7-4 home) will host the Utah Jazz (7-15, 1-10 away) at home tonight. 3-2 in their last 5 matchups, the Thunder had an exhilarating 138-136 OT victory over the Warriors. The Jazz, who are 1-4 in their last five games, are coming off a 117-103 loss against the Los Angeles Clippers. Tonight, the Jazz will be without star Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler, while John Collins is listed as questionable. One of the youngest teams in the league, the Thunder are truly an exciting units to watch.

If you're betting on the NBA, OKC is 7-4 at home, and I grabbed the spread at -12.5 this morning. With the return of Rookie Chet Holmgren has been the emergence of MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA). Averaging 30.5 points per game, SGA has elevated his game defensively, averaging 2.8 steals a game. With a strong starting five, the Thunder are middle of the road in bench points per game (35.3).

Second in scoring is Jalen Williams, who's coming off a 28 point, performance against Golden State. With Holmgren, Josh Giddey, and Lugentz Dort all averaging points in double figures, OKC is a top ten team in terms of offense and defense. Although Dort is out for tonight's matchup, the Thunder shouldn't have any problem tonight against the Jazz.

With OKC ranked third in overall net rating (7.2), they are a fast paced team, who puts up nearly 120 points a game, and allows 112.5 opponent points. One of the more elite teams in terms of guarding the perimeter, the Thunder have an 88.3 percent change to win this game outright, according to ESPN Analytics. With impressive victories over the Warriors, Lakers, and the Mavericks, this is a team thats averaged 120 points in their last 5 matchups, while allowing 116 points. Third overall in NBA point differential (+7.2), they face a Jazz team that has a point differential of -8.7.

The Thunder are the real deal

While the Jazz showed promise in the 2021-2022 season, they are in complete rebuild mode, especially with the departure of Donovan Mitchell, Ruby Gobert, and Mike Conley. 1-4 in their lat 5 matchups, Utah struggles offensively, only putting up 111 points per game. One of the worst teams in terms of field goal percentage, Utah ranks near last in defense, allowing teams to out up 119.7 points per game. While Markkanen is out tonight, the Jazz will be hurting without it's biggest star. Their biggest struggles have recently been put on full display.

Overall, the Jazz are large underdogs, which factors in injuries, win/loss record, and away record. 1-10 on the road, Utah has a 11-11-0 record against the spread, while the Thunder are 14-7. 6-4 against the spread in the last ten matchups, OKC has a stellar 8-3 record against the spread on the road. With the Jazz blown out 147-97 against the Mavericks, I can't see this game remotely close. In the last five matchups, Utah has closest game was a 5 point differential in overtime against Portland. They've been defeated by 11 points or more in four matchups against the Clippers, Mavericks, Timberwolves, and Grizzlies. If you're betting on the NBA tonight, I'm picking OKC to cover the spread.

NBA Bet #3: Denver Nuggets -2.5 (-112)

The Denver Nuggets (14-9, 5-8 away) will face the Atlanta Hawks (9-12, 3-6 home) on the road tonight. 2-3 in their last five matchups, the Nuggets have been unrecognizable as of late. They will look to bounce back tonight after three consecutive losses against the Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Clippers, and the Sacramento Kings. While the Nuggets were initially considered underdogs this evening, it looks as though Jamal Murray will suit up for tonights matchup. For the Hawks, guard Trae Young is back with the team, while DeAndre Hunter is listed as a game-time decision.

If you're betting on the NBA, yes, the Nuggets have been terrible on the road. However, this has to be their bounce back game. While in the worst stretch of their season, the Nuggets should have their healthy starting five on the floor tonight. With 71 % bettors putting money on Denver to cover the spread, they will face Atlanta, who've lost three straight against the 76ers, Nets, and Bucks.

Why the Nuggets can cover the spread

Overall, these teams are not comparable on paper. The Hawks have some decent pieces, and put up the second most points in the league, but their defense has been atrocious. A decent three-point shooting team under head coach Quinn Snyder, is allowing opposing teams to score nearly 123 points a game. Tonight they get the reigning NBA Champions, who are a top 8 defensive team.

Overall, there's one piece of information you should know before betting on this matchup. The Hawks are just 5-16 against the spread this season, and the Nuggets, 8-15. 1-9 against the spread in the last ten matchups, Atlanta hasn't been able to cover in 6 straight games. With Nikola Jokic struggling with his shot, Murray was ejected last game. Back after an 11 game absence, the Nuggets have a 6-4 win/loss record against the Hawks. With a 20 point victory over Atlanta early 2023, they shouldn't have any problem covering the -2.5 spread tonight.

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Sara Jane Gamelli is a full-time Sportswriter at Ballislife, and Sports Content Creator on Twitch and TikTok. She has a focus on the NBA, WNBA, NCAA Basketball, and the NFL. Sara Jane currently resides in Connecticut/NYC area with her Cat and Dog. SJ has her undergraduate degree from the University of Connecticut in Economics, with a minor in business administration.

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