Bet #1 Obi Toppin 1+ 3PTM

Obi Toppin hangs and goes up & under for the finish. pic.twitter.com/aMldiHhsHb

— Indiana Pacers (@Pacers) December 19, 2023

Season Stats PPG: 12.3 | FG: 61.4 % | 3 PT: 38.3 % | FT: 78.4 % | REB: 3.4 | AST: 1.4 | STL: 0.5 | BLK: 0.6

Coming in at No.1, is Obi Toppin, Pacers Forward, with one made three pointer versus the Charlotte Hornets. One of my favorite props to bet on this season, Toppin has certainly found his stride with the Pacers.

If you're betting on the NBA, the former Knick hit over this prop 9 of the last 10 games, and 4 of the last 5. Hitting at least one three pointer in four straight games, Toppin found success against the Bucks, Wizards, Timberwolves, and Clippers. With that said, Los Angeles and Minnesota are top defensive teams.

Shooting a career high 38.3 percent from the three-point this season, the forward is also playing a career high 24 minutes per game. This season, Toppin has established himself as a full time starter for the first time in his NBA career. It's important to note, through 25 games played, he's putting up a stellar 61 percent shooting from the field.

Tonight, the Pacers get the Hornets, who allow the 25th most points per game (120.7), and allow nearly a league worst 38.3 opponent three-point percentage. Furthermore, Toppin has made at least one shot from long distance in three straight matchups against Charlotte. Putting up a combined 5 three-pointers in three games against the Hornets, he get's a prime matchup at home tonight.

While the Pacers are on a four game losing skid, they still remain one of the top offensive teams in the league. Over the last ten games, Toppins gameplay has been incredible, shooting 47.2 percent from long range and 62.5 percent from the field. Putting up 12.8 points in 23.9 minutes, he's had some solid outings against great defensive teams.

Why I like this prop for tonight

Coming off a 14 point performance against the Clippers, No. 1 hit 66.7 percent of his shot from long distance. More impressive, he's playing with consistency, and that's why I love this prop. While the Pacers have a deep bench, Haliburton hasn't played as efficient, and Toppin should see some looks tonight. Although he's played slightly more efficient on the road, the forward is still shooting at high rate (35.7 percent). In 13 home games this season, Toppin is putting up 10.6 points per game with 1.2-3.2 three-point attempts.

I truly believe if Indiana could step up defensively, they could be a top team in the East. While offense shouldn't be an issue, Toppin should get his opportunity as he's averaged a season best 52 percent three-point percentage in December. Meanwhile, the defense has been absolutely atrocious.

In their last matchup against Charlotte, Toppin put up 11 points on 50 percent three-point shooting. Most recently, they've allowed Caleb Martin, Patrick Williams, Karl-Anthony Towns, Dorian-Finney Smith, Cam Johnson, Julius Randle, and Paolo Banchero to hit at least one three in a single game. If you're betting on the NBA, Charlotte is riddled with injuries, and remain one of the worst teams in terms of defense. With LaMelo Ball out, this team lacks true super stardom and identity. Look for Toppin to have a prime matchup against Miles Bridges, especially with Mark Williams out at the 5.

While a majority of his points came in the wide open paint last matchup vs. Charlotte, Indiana has great pace, ball movement, and will have looks in the corner tonight.

Bet #2 Kawhi Leonard 2+ 3PTM

KAWHI BEATS THE BUZZER 👌🚨 pic.twitter.com/ohSvQGkapZ

— LA Clippers (@LAClippers) December 19, 2023

Season Stats PPG: 24.2 | FG: 52 % | 3 PT: 44 % | FT: 87.2 % | REB: 5.8 | AST: 3.5 | STL: 1.5 | BLK: 0.7

Coming in second, is Kawhi Leonard, Clippers forward with two made three-pointers versus the Dallas Mavericks. While Paul George is listed as a game time decision, I chose to stay away from any of his props.

One of the best two way players in the league, Leonard is healthy, and he's reliable. If you're betting on the NBA, he has at least 2 made three-pointers 90 percent of the last 10 games, and 100 % in the last 5. A 77 percent hit rate this season, the former Raptor has 7 made three-pointers in the last two matchups, against the Knicks and Pacers. New York is a solid defensive team this season, and yet Kawhi put up 5 long shots on them.

Aside from the 2015-2016 season, Kawhi Leonard is averaging an improbable 44 percent from three. On an 8 game win streak, the Clippers have the talent, and now are finding their chemistry and stride. While vintage James Harden is seemingly back, Kawhi has been fairly consistent from the three-point line.

Leading the Clippers in scoring, Leonard is having his most productive month of the season, putting up 29.3 points on 54.8 percent three-point shooting in the month of December. Given they are on the road in Dallas this evening, Kawhi has been equally effective in away games, averaging 45.7 percent from long range and 26 points per game.

While the Clippers are on a winning streak, No 2. has been on a tear as well. Averaging 29.1 points on 57.4 percent three-point shooting the last 10 games, Kawhi will meet against Dallas for the third time this season. Although Dallas isn't the most efficient team defensively, Leonard hasn't been as efficient. In two games against the Mavericks, he's put up an average 17 points per game on 22.2 percent three-point shooting. If your betting on the NBA, does this worry me a bit, sure. However, It's Kawhi Leonard. It's the man that helped the Raptors win their first ever championship.

The Mavericks struggle defensively

In the last four matchups, dating back to early 2023, Leonard has two made three-pointers in 3 of the 5 matchups. Although he didn't bank a single shot from downtown in their Nov. 25 matchup, Dallas has several key players on their injury report. With George's status unknown, Leonard should get matched up with Grant Williams, who's known for his defensive prowess.

Overall, the Mavericks have been without Kyrie Irving and Derek lively II. A team that allows the 22nd most points per game (117.6), allows the 18th highest three-point percentage (37.3 percent). While his history doesn't favor this prop, the Mavericks allowed Michael Porter Jr, Julian Strawther, LeBron James, Taurean Prince, and Toumani Camara to hit 2+ made threes.

If you're betting on the NBA, I'm not fading Leonard, who's been red hot as of recent. Averaging 35.1 minutes in December, the forward also has great shot volume. In one game at American Airlines Center, Leonard scored 26 points on 50 percent shooting from downtown. While he may have a tough matchup against Williams, it's hard to hit a prop that's hit 9 of the last 10 games.

Bet #3 James Harden 1+ steals

James Harden making snow angels after knocking down his 4th straight three during a 21-point 4th quarter 🔥

Kawhi: It was very entertaining. It’s like I paid for some seats tonight. I'm happy to be on this side of him being hot."pic.twitter.com/1XPZt60Wzn

— Ballislife.com (@Ballislife) December 19, 2023

Season Stats PPG: 17.1 | FG: 48.2 % | 3 PT: 44 % | FT: 83.9 % | REB: 4.6 | AST: 7.6 | STL: 1.5 | BLK: 0.8

Some will say that vintage James Harden is back. After a tumultuous off season, Harden has found his stride with his new team. Shooting a career-high 44 percent from beyond the arc, the shooting guard will continue his efficient play on both sides of the ball. Besides his shooting percentages, Harden is averaging the most steals since his 2019-2020 season with the Houston Rockets.

If you're betting on the NBA, his original line was at 1.5 steals. If you take the alternate 1+, that has a 86 percent hit rate this season, including 9 of the last 10 games. While this has only missed in three games this season, Harden had success with this prop in five straight games, against the Pacers, Knicks, Warriors, Kings, and Trail Blazers.

On an absolute tear, Harden is averaging 1.1 blocks and 1.6 steals in the last ten matchups. Like Leonard, Harden has been equally productive on the road. Averaging 1.5 steals in away games, No. 1 has 2 steals in one game at American Airlines Center this year.

Tonight, the Clippers get the Mavericks, who rank 18th in the NBA in total turnovers per game (14.2). LA, who's fourth in steals per game (8.4) matchup against Dallas, who allow over 7 steals per game. Over the last month, the Mavericks allowed Kyle Anderson, LeBron James, Toumani Camara, Jalen Williams, Harrison Barnes, and Deni Avdija to all have at least one steal.

While Kyrie Irving is out, Harden will get his matchup against Luka Doncic. While the Clippers will meet with the Mavericks for the third time this season, Harden has 3 steals in the first two matchups, and three in March of 2023. A 75 percent hit rate against Dallas, Harden will look to continue his steal streak, that's hit in 14 of the last 15 games.

Like my other props, it's extremely hard to fade Harden, who's been fairly consistent on the defensive end. A 80 percent hit rate in 5 games on the road, I'm going to take that. Although it's all about matchup when it comes to betting, your best bet is to take Harden 1 + steals tonight.

BONUS BET: NBA Bet #4 Boston Celtics -5.5

I originally took Boston -5.5 before I learned the news that Jayson Tatum, Al Horford, and Luke Kornet will be out for tonight's matchup. While I'm comfortable taking the +5.5, the Celtics still can win this game outright, and by -5.5 points. Underdogs by a -2.5 point spread on the road, the Celtics are 7-3 against Sacramento in their last ten matchups. While the Kings and coach Mike Brown have turned around the franchise, the C's have a 123 point differential in their last four matchups against Sacramento.

Yes, the Celtics will be missing Tatum. However, Jaylen Brown has the capability of handling the offense, along with Derrick White, Jrue Holiday, and Kristaps Porzingis, if he plays. Their last meeting was March of 2023, where Boston smoked them 132-109. Given Boston has a newly constructed roster compared to last season, the Kings have yet to face this lineup. While the Celtics are coming off a tough loss vs. Golden State on the road, tonight will be a tough test for Boston, who will be without their biggest star.

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Sara Jane Gamelli is a full-time Sportswriter at Ballislife, and Sports Content Creator on Twitch and TikTok. She has a focus on the NBA, WNBA, NCAA Basketball, and the NFL. Sara Jane currently resides in Connecticut/NYC area with her Cat and Dog. SJ has her undergraduate degree from the University of Connecticut in Economics, with a minor in business administration.

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