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Aces vs. Sky Betting Odds & Predictions: WNBA Playoffs Game 1

Sara Jane Gamelli 4366 September 13, 2023 No Comments

The 2023 WNBA Playoffs first-round starts tonight. The Las Vegas Aces will matchup against the Chicago Sky at home. Here, you will find the WNBA betting odds, stats, trends, player prop bets, and predictions for Wednesday, September 13.

Written and edited by

Sara Jane Gamelli

Tonight, is Game 1 of the first-round WNBA playoffs between the Las Vegas Aces (34-6, 19-1 Home) and the Chicago Sky (18-22, 11-9 Away). The first of three games, Las Vegas, the reigning 2022 WNBA Champions, will look to defend their title. In their fifth straight playoff appearance, Las Vegas Aces have won four of their last five games. The Chicago Sky led by Kahleah Copper, squeezed in as the 8th and final playoff seed. WNBA champions in 2021 and 26-10 in 2022, the Sky lost key players in the offseason, and will look to make a playoff run. In the final games of the regular season, the Sky won four of their last five games, including a victory over the Connecticut Sun.

 In this article, I will break down the WNBA betting odds, statistics, trends, odds, player prop bets, and predictions. The matchup will begin at 10 p.m. ET, at T-Mobile Arena, located in Las Vegas, Nevada. If you're Betting on the WNBA and interested in watching, the game will air on ESPN.  For the best betting odds, stats and analysis, here is information to know.

WNBA Game 1 Odds: Las Vegas Aces vs. Chicago Sky

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Chicago Sky +16.5 (-108)

The Chicago Sky were the second-best team in 2022, and lost in the semi-finals against the Connecticut Sun. The Reigning 2021 WNBA Champions will make their fifth straight playoff appearance, all while under interim head coach, Emre Vatansever. Former head coach James Wade departing for the NBA in early July gave interim coach Emre Vatansever little time to develop chemistry with the team. Since Vatansever's arrival with Chicago, he led to Sky to a 11-13 record, and managed to help turn their season around in August. Fighting for the 8th seed with the Los Angeles Sparks, the Sky won five of their last seven games down the stretch, including victories over Connecticut and Minnesota. With determination, Chicago was able to obtain the eighth and final playoff spot. Their record against the spread in the regular season was 22-16-2.

Matchup against the Aces

The Aces are 3-0 against the Sky in three regular matchups. However, Chicago covered all spreads, some of which were large. In three games, the Sky averaged 87.3 points per game, 31.3 rebounds, 21.7 assists, 4.7 steals, and 1.7 blocks. Chicago, third in three-point shooting, managed to shoot an incredible 40 percent from the three, and 45 percent from the field. Given Las Vegas is the most efficient team on both ends of the floor, the Sky managed to keep up in most games. Last matchup against the Aces, the Sky had three players in double-figures, Kahleah Copper, Elizabeth Williams, and Marina Mabrey. Alanna Smith, questionable for tonight's game, averaged 7.3 points and rebounds in four games against the Aces. If she's in the lineup, I like the +16.5, with help on the boards for the frontcourt.

The Chicago Sky look to stay hot, after winning three straight games, and covering the spread in seven of the last eight. Out of 22 games, the Sky covered in nine against teams that are .500 and above. With both teams coming off three days of rest, I expect Las Vegas to outright win the Money Line tonight. I do expect the Sky to keep up, especially with a three-guard lineup, and given the fact are scoring 85 points in the last ten games. The Aces had a slight regression post All-Star break, losing four of their six losses since the beginning of August. To me, +16.5 is a large, spread, especially for a playoff game, and a Sky team that has covered in all of their meetings.

Chelsea Gray over 23.5 Points and Assists (PrizePicks)

PPG: 15.3 | FG: 49 % | 3 PT: 42.1 % | FT: 89.7 % | REB: 4 | AST: 7.3 | STL: 1.4 | BLK: 0.6

Chelsea Gray, guard for the Las Vegas Aces is one of the most prolific playmakers in the WNBA. Nicknamed the "Point Gawd," No. 12 is averaging career-highs in points, rebounds, assists, and blocks per game. The guard shot over 42 percent from the three this season, which ranks 7th in the league. Part of a dynamic backcourt, Gray, has plenty of passing options, including Aja Wilson, Kelsey Plum, and Jackie Young. Throughout 40 games in 2023, the guard averaged 15.3 points, and 7.3 assists a game. Her total of 291 assists ranks third in the league, behind Courtney Vandersloot and Alyssa Thomas. With 610 points scored, Gray ranks 19th, which is incredible for a team that's stacked with four All-Stars.

Hitting 41 percent of the time this season, this prop has hit 60 percent of the last five and ten games for Gray. She's hit over 23.5 points and assists in two of the three matchups against Chicago in the regular season. In the Aces previous matchup with the Sky, Gray finished with a double-double, 19 points and 10 assists. On July 25, game two, the guard finished with 22 points, and 9 assists. In three matchups with the Sky, Chelsea Gray averaged 32.8 minutes, 20 points, and 7 assists. In those matchups No. 12 averaged 11.7 field goal attempts, and 2.3 three-point attempts per game.

Why this prop will hit

Coming off three days of rest, Gray averages 14 points and 6.8 assists. Though a small sample size of two games, she performs her best with two games of rest or less. When it comes to prop bets in the playoffs, I specifically target players who excel in multiple areas of the court. For Gray, she is a scorer, and reads the court with high IQ. Whether she takes it to the basket, or knocks down a three, Chelsea Gray is a threat from anywhere on the court.

She will matchup against the Chicago Sky, who allow the second most assists per game (20.8), next to the Seattle Storm. If she gets the matchup with Marina Mabrey, Mabrey ranks 110 in defensive rating (103.5), and has a net rating of -0.8. Guards Kahleah Copper and Courtney Williams both rank near the bottom in terms of the defensive ratings. Overall, Chelsey Gray is 8th in offensive rating (112.5), and third in assist percentage (33.7). With only one loss at home, Gray has plenty of options to distribute the ball to and has the ability to score when A'ja Wilson is clamped.

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Season Statistics & Betting Trends

Las Vegas Aces

  • LV Aces: 4-1 in their last 5 games.
  • 7-3 in their last 10 games.
  • ATS Record: 21-19-0
  • O/U Record: 24-16-0
  • 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games.
  • 5-4-1 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • O/U is 3-2 in the last 5 games.
  • O/U: 3-7 in the last 10 games.
  • 1st in Offensive Rating (113)
  • 1st in Defensive Rating (97.7)
  • 1st in Points Per Game (92.8)
  • 2nd in Pace: 98.58
  • Opponent Points Per Game: 80.3 (2nd)
  • Three-Point Percentage: 37.2 % (2nd)
  • Rebounds Per Game: 34.8 (5th)
  • LV ATS won last 10 games: New York (-7.5), Seattle (-20), Phoenix (-19)

Chicago Sky

  • Chicago Sky: 4-1 in their last 5 games.
  • 6-4 in their last 10 games.
  • ATS Record: 22-16-0
  • O/U Record: 19-21-0
  • 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
  • 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • O/U is 2-3 in the last 5 games.
  • O/U: 5-5 in the last 10 games.
  • 6th in Offensive Rating (101.3)
  • 7th in Defensive Rating (103.4)
  • 6th in Points Per Game (81.7)
  • 8th in Pace: 96.18
  • Opponent Points Per Game: 83.4 (6th)
  • Three-Point Percentage: 37.2 (3rd)
  • Rebounds Per Game: 33.3 (9th)
  • Chicago: ATS won last 10 games: Seattle (-4.5, -1), Las Vegas (+14.5), LA (+5), Indiana (+1), Minnesota (-4), Connecticut (+9.5)

Head-to-head stats: Aces vs. Sky

Season Matchups:

Game 1: Las Vegas 93, Chicago 80 (Chicago +13.5, over 168)
Game 2: Las Vegas 107, Chicago 95 (Chicago +14.5, over 168)
Game 3: Las Vegas 94, Chicago 87 (Chicago +14.5, over 171.5)

  • Las Vegas won the series 3-0
  • The Sky are 3-0 ATS vs. the Aces this season.
  • Game Points (AVG) last 10 matchups: 176
  • Las Vegas average points last 10 games: 89
  • Chicago average points last 10 games: 85

Stay tuned for more WNBA and betting related articles. Click here for more WNBA betting strategies.

Sara Jane Gamelli is a full-time Sportswriter at BallisLife, and Sports Content Creator on Twitch and TikTok. She has a focus on the NBA, WNBA, NCAA Basketball, and the NFL. Sara Jane currently resides in Connecticut with her Cat and Dog. SJ has her undergraduate degree from the University of Connecticut in Economics, with a minor in business administration.

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