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Sun vs. Lynx Betting Odds & Predictions: WNBA Playoffs Game 1

Sara Jane Gamelli 4200 September 13, 2023 No Comments

The 2023 WNBA Playoffs first-round starts tonight. The Connecticut Sun will matchup against the Minnesota Lynx at home. Here, you will find the WNBA betting odds, stats, trends, player prop bets, and predictions for Wednesday, September 13. 

Written and edited by

Sara Jane Gamelli

Tonight is Game 1 of the first-round WNBA playoffs between the Connecticut Sun (27-13, 13-7 Home) and the Minnesota Lynx (19-21,10-10 Away). The first of three games, the Sun will look to make a trip back to the finals. 3-2 in their last five games, Connecticut will have their seven straight playoff appearance. The Minnesota Lynx, led by Napheesa Collier, will look to make a run after missing the 2022 playoffs. In the final games of the regular season, the Lynx dropped three of five.

 In this article, I will break down the WNBA betting odds, statistics, trends, odds, player prop bets, and predictions. The matchup will begin at 8 p.m. ET, at Mohegan Sun Arena, located in Uncasville, Connecticut.  If you're Betting on the WNBA and interested in watching, the game will air on ESPN2. For the best betting odds, stats and analysis, here is information to know.

WNBA Daily Odds Game 1: Connecticut Sun vs. Minnesota Lynx

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Connecticut Sun -8.5 (-106)

With injuries and off-season trades, the Connecticut Sun were destined to regress. With the inconceivable play of Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner, the Sun have remained one of the most exceptional teams in the league. Prolific on defense, the Sun rank second in Defensive Rating (98.8) and lead the league in opponent points per game (79). With DiJonai Carrington as the only player listed as questionable, the Sun should have most players available this series.

Connecticut is 3-1 against Minnesota, in which the Lynx covered the spread 75 percent. As the third best team in the WNBA, Connecticut averages five more points at home (85), rebounds (34.2), assists (21.6), and steals (8.5). On their home court, the Sun shoot more efficiently in every aspect. Typically, on three days' rest, the Sun shoot close to 40 percent from three, and have a record of 3-3. Overall, Connecticut is 21-17-2 against the spread, which is over the positive mark.

In four games against Minnesota, Connecticut has one loss on their home court. In four meetings, they scored an averaged of 85 points per game, 33.8 rebounds, 22 assists, 6.8 steals, and 5.5 blocks. Additionally, they are a 46 percent field goal and 30.6 three-point shooting team against the Lynx. With a 32-point differential, they face a Minnesota team who will be without Jessica Shepard and Lindsay Allen. Although Minnesota is 21-18-1 against the spread, only six covers against the spread came against teams that are .500 or better.

Why the Sun will cover

I love that the Minnesota Lynx continue to build around Kayla McBride and Napheesa Collier. They have promising young rookies in Dorka Juhasz and Diamond Miller, who were just named to the AP All-Rookie team. With two straight losses against Indiana and Chicago to close out the season, the Lynx will face a Connecticut Sun team that is one year removed from the WNBA finals. Not able to cover the spread in the last two games, Minnesota remains inconsistent, and one of the worst defensive teams heading into the playoffs. I believe this team can be a dominant force in the league, perhaps with less injuries and more development of younger players. With the Sun well rested, I expect them to fully cover the spread at home tonight. With the departure of Curt Miller, there's a reason why Stephanie White was named AP Coach of the Year.

Alyssa Thomas 23 Points + Assists

PPG: 15.5 | FG: 47.4 % | 3 PT: 0 % | FT: 71.5 % | REB: 9.9 | AST: 7.9 |STL: 1.8 | BLK: 0.5

In the MVP conversation, Alyssa Thomas finished a brilliant 2023 season. In her MVP campaign, Thomas was named to the Associated Press First Team All-League. Through 40 games, Thomas broke the single season assist record with 316, along with several honorable accolades. The forward made WNBA history, including six triple-doubles, and 28 double-doubles. No. 25 is the first player ever with 600 points, 300 rebounds, 300 assists. In the history of the WNBA, Thomas stands among the only athlete to have back-to-back triple-doubles, and a 20 point/ 20 assist/10 rebound game. Her back-to-back triple-double game ironically was against Minnesota, twice.

Not a threat behind the perimeter, Thomas prides herself in excelling on all areas of the court. With the absence of Brionna Jones, Thomas has taken the role of point forward. In her 10th season with the Connecticut Sun, Alyssa Thomas is truly a definition of a leader, and a player who can perform everywhere on the court. A one-of-a-kind athlete, the forward shines defensively, offensively, which includes scoring, throwing dimes, and rebounding.

Why this pop will hit

In a crucial Game 1 of the WNBA playoffs, the Connecticut Sun are coming off three days' rest. This prop hit 50 percent of the season, 50 percent in the last ten games, and 75 percent of the matchups against Minnesota this season. Though over 23 points and assist hit once in the last four games, Stephanie White managed her minutes in the last home matchup versus the Chicago Sky. With DiJonai Carrington listed as questionable, look for Thomas to be the engine of this offense, especially early on. In home matchups, Thomas averages 8.5 assists per game, where on the road, No. 25 dishes out 7.4 dimes. The point forward takes 13.2 shots a game at their home court, which is almost one more attempt than on the road. Off three days of rest, the Sun star averages 15.8 points, and 8.3 assists per game.

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Matchup against the Lynx

In four matchups against the Lynx, Thomas averaged 17.3 points, 13 rebounds, 10.3 assists, and 1.5 steals. On August 1, the forward became the first player in WNBA history to have back-to-back triple-doubles against the Lynx. In those two matchups, she had a combined 38 points, 34 rebounds, 23 assists, and 5 steals. Thomas played significantly superior at home against the opposition.

At Mohegan Sun Arena against the Lynx, Thomas averages 19 points, 17 rebounds, and 11.5 assists, all significantly higher than on the road. In The Suns previous regular season matchup with them, Thomas had an incredible 21 points, 20 rebounds, and 12 assists in 40 minutes. Given Connecticut is 3-1 against Minnesota, and the way No. 25 has played, it's very hard to fade this prop. Given that Minnesota ranks 10th in defensive rating, I expect Alyssa Thomas to shine in Game 1 of the playoffs tonight.

Season Statistics & Betting Trends

Connecticut Sun

  • CT Sun: 3-2 in their last 5 games.
  • 6-4 in their last 10 games.
  • ATS Record: 21-17-2
  • O/U Record: 22-18-0
  • 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games.
  • 5-4-1 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • O/U is 3-2 in the last 5 games.
  • O/U: 5-5 in the last 10 games.
  • 4th in Offensive Rating (103.2)
  • 2nd in Defensive Rating (98.8)
  • 4th in Points Per Game (82.7)
  • 10th in Pace: 95.14
  • Opponent Points Per Game: 79 (1st)
  • Three-Point Percentage: 36% (4th)
  • Rebounds Per Game: 33.6 (8th)
  • Connecticut ATS won last 10 games: Chicago (-5.5), New York (+6), LA (-6.5, -10.5), Indiana (-10)

Minnesota Lynx

  • Minnesota Lynx: 2-3 in their last 5 games.
  • 5-5 in their last 10 games.
  • ATS Record: 21-18-0
  • O/U Record: 21-17-0
  • 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games.
  • 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • O/U is 3-2 in the last 5 games.
  • O/U: 7-3 in the last 10 games.
  • 8th in Offensive Rating (99.8)
  • 10th in Defensive Rating (105.7)
  • 8th in Points Per Game (80.2)
  • 9th in Pace: 95.84
  • Opponent Points Per Game: 85 (11th)
  • Three-Point Percentage: 32.5 (11th)
  • Rebounds Per Game: 34.3 (6th)
  • Minnesota: ATS won last 10 games:  Seattle (-2), Dallas (+6, +6.5), Atlanta (-1.5), Phoenix (-8.5)

Head-to-head stats: Sun vs. Lynx

Season Matchups:

Game 1: Connecticut 89, Minnesota 84 (Minnesota +6, over 159.5)
Game 2: Connecticut 89, Minnesota 68 (Connecticut -4, under 158)
Game 3: Minnesota 87, Connecticut 83 (Minnesota +12.5, over 161)
Game 4: Connecticut 79, Minnesota 69 (Minnesota +11.5, under 164)

  • Connecticut won the series 3-1
  • The Lynx are 3-1 ATS vs. the Sun this season.
  • Game Points (AVG) last 10 matchups: 159
  • Connecticut average points last 10 games: 79
  • Minnesota average points last 10 games: 82

Stay tuned for more WNBA and betting related articles. Click here for more WNBA betting strategies.

Sara Jane Gamelli is a full-time Sportswriter at BallisLife, and Sports Content Creator on Twitch and TikTok. She has a focus on the NBA, WNBA, NCAA Basketball, and the NFL. Sara Jane currently resides in Connecticut with her Cat and Dog. SJ has her undergraduate degree from the University of Connecticut in Economics, with a minor in business administration.

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