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NBA betting: favorite picks for Jan. 11

Sara Jane Gamelli 12753 January 11, 2024 No Comments

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Sara Jane Gamelli

There are several games on the NBA Slate today, including the Cleveland Cavaliers and Brooklyn Nets matchup hosted in Paris. The Boston Celtics (29-8, 11-8 away) will face Eastern Conference Rival Milwaukee Bucks (25-12, 16-4 home) on the road. For the Western Conference, the Los Angeles Lakers (19-19, 13-6 home) will host the Phoenix Suns (19-18, 8-7) at home. If you're planning on betting on both of those matchups, they will air on TNT, starting at 7:30 and 10:00 p.m. ET.

Coming off a road victory against the Miami Heat, the Oklahoma City Thunder (25-11, 14-5 home) will face off against the Portland Trail Blazers (10-26, 5-15 away) at home. With tip off at 8:30 p.m. ET, the New York Knicks (22-15, 11-11 away) will travel to Dallas to play the Mavericks (22-15, 11-8 home).  I have several recommended player props, and a few game props. For my picks, I took them all as straight bets, no more than 1 u on each.

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Odds are current as of Jan. 11, at 1 p.m. ET
SJ's NBA Straight Player and Game Props this season: 31-14, up 16.5u

Here you will find the NBA betting odds, stats, trends, player prop bets, and predictions for Thursday, Jan. 11

NBA Bet #1: OG Anunoby O 1.5 3PTM (-130)

Season Stats PPG: 15 | FG: 49.7 % | 3 PT: 38.4 % | FT: 73.1 % | REB: 4.1 | AST: 2.4 | STL: 1.1 | BLK: 0.4

(Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)

Tonight, the Knicks play the Mavericks on the road. 5-0 since trading for former Raptor OG Anunoby, the Knicks have recent wins over the Trail Blazers, Wizards, 76ers, Bulls, and Timberwolves. Known for his defensive prowess, Anunoby is finding his stride on the offensive end with the Knicks.

Coming off a 23 points performance against Portland, Anunoby shot 66.7 percent from deep, on six attempts. This evening, he faces a Mavericks team who allow the 20th most points (116.9), and rank 19th and 15th in opponent three-point attempts (13.3) and percentage (36.5).

Although he's on a new team, Anunoby has a history of success against Dallas, hitting over 1.5 three pointers in their last three meetings. A cumulative of nine three-pointers made in those matchups, the newly acquired Knick has a 63 percent hit rate this season.

Able to hit this prop in five of the last eight games, OG will continue on the road, where he's hit this prop in five of the last ten, and 10 out of the last 15 games. With Luka Doncic out, and Grant Williams, Derek Lively II, and Max Klever listed as questionable, this a prime matchup for him.

Information courtesy of Props.Cash

OG Anunoby is a perfect fit with the Knicks

Most recent, Dallas allowed forwards Ziaire Williams, Toumani Camara, Simone Fontecchio, Caris LeVert, Georges Niang, Isaac Okoro, and Grayson Allen all to hit over 1.5 made three-pointers. While Dallas ranks in the bottom tier against small fowards, Anunoby should be able this hit this no problem.

If you're betting on the NBA, Anunoby is shooting 45.5 percent from deep since acquired by the Knicks. Averaging 4.4 three-point attempts with New York, his current three-point percentage is a career-high.

In one game against the Mavericks, the Knicks forward has 26 points on 3-8 (37.5 percent) three-point shooting. Shooting over 37 percent from the corner, the Mavericks allow the most corner threes in the NBA. While Doncic remains out, it shouldn't affect this prop too much. He's been hot, and he ranks second in the league in made corner threes.

A catch and shoot floor spacer, I'm hot on this prop tonight.

NBA Bet #2: Chet Holmgren O 27.5 PRAs (-120)

Season Stats PPG: 17.9 | FG: 55.5% | 3 PT: 40.3 % | FT: 81 % | REB: 7.4 | AST: 2.7 | STL: 0.2 | BLK: 2.6

Thunder's Chet Holmgren is making a strong case for the Rookie of the Year, next to Victor Wembanyama. Known for his blistering defense, he's coming off an efficient night. Excellent off cuts and in transition, Holmgren had 23 points, three blocks, two assists, and nine rebounds in Wednesday's victory over Miami.

At first I was hesitant about this prop, due to a potential blow out. However, Holmgren is averaging 30 minutes in those last few blowout games. Tonight, he gets the Trail Blazers, who allow the 17 most points (116.2), 24th most rebounds (45.2), and 19th most assists (27.1). With the departure of star Damian Lillard, Portland's been faced with a rebuild and injuries.

Most recent, Portland allowed Nic Claxton, Day'ron Sharpe, Jusuf Nurkic, Zach Collins, and Domantas Sabonis to all his over points, rebounds, and assists. If Deandre Ayton is out for tonights matchup, Holmgren may have an easier matchup.

Although the Thunder will play their second straight game, Holmgren continues to be efficient off zero days rest. In these situations, the big man is averaging 16 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 1.3 assists. It is important to note, in four games off zero games rest, Holmgrens has an average 24 minutes played, compared to a high 31.3 minutes off one days rest.

Information courtesy of Props.Cash

The Thunder are unleashing Holmgren

With Oklahoma City back home, Holmgren averages 18.7 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 2.7 assists in 19 games in front of their fans. If you're betting on this prop, it has a 58 percent hit rate when the Thunder are home, and it's hit in five of the last home matchups.

If you're betting on the NBA, this prop hit in 70 percent of the last 10 games, and is extremely effective when playing 30.1 minutes or more. Coming off two straight prop hits against the Heat and Washington, Holmgren hit this prop against back-to-back matchups against the Timberwolves and Knicks.

Leading OKC in rebounds (7.4), Holmgren is averaging 17.9 points, and 2.7 assists per game. In one game against Portland, he did not hit the over, putting up 16 points, six rebounds, and zero assists (22 PRAs). Over the last ten games, the former Gonzaga BullDog is putting up 20 points, six rebounds, and three assists.

NBA Bet #3: Kevin Durant O 26.5 Points (-150)

Season Stats PPG: 29.6 | FG: 52.5 % | 3 PT: 47.4 % | FT: 87.5 % | REB: 6.4 | AST: 5.9 | STL: 0.8 | BLK: 1.1

Tonight, the struggling Suns get the Lakers. Even with Bradley Beal back in the starting lineup, I'm taking Kevin Durant over 27.5 points scored. One of the most bet props tonight on Draft Kings, Durant has a prime matchup against Los Angeles.

A prop hit rate of 67 percent this season, Durant has over 27.5 points in his last four matchups against the Lakers. Averaging 36 points in three games against them this season, Durant will face Los Angeles for the first time with both Beal and Booker in the lineup. In six games with a healthy Big 3, this prop hit three of six games (50 percent) for Durant.

While he's been inconsistent of late, Durant hit this prop just 60 percent of the last ten games. Coming off a 30 point performance against the Clippers, he'll get a primetime matchup tonight.

Information courtesy of Props.Cash

Why I like this prop tonight

While there's a slight risk Beal and Booker affect his points, he has an excellent projected matchup tonight. 16th in opponent points allowed (115.1), the Lakers allow a league low 14.4 three-point attempts, and 38.4 percentage. Dealing with injuries and inconsistencies, Los Angeles recently allowed forward Scottie Barnes, Ziaire Williams, Jaime Jaquez Jr., and Herbert Jones to all hit over their props.

Tonight is going to be a classic showdown between Durant and LeBron James. Off two days rest, this prop hit in three of the last five games. In 24 regular season career matchups against LeBron, Durant averages 27.3 points per game on 50 percent field goal shooting.

An elite scorer, Durant can score anywhere on the court, and has done it with ease most of the season. In the last ten games, he's putting up 25 points, on 50 percent three-point shooting. A combined 40 field goal attempts, he's playing 35.5 minutes in two games this month.

Other Picks

Cleveland Cavaliers ML -210 (DK)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander O31.5 points -130 (DK)

Boston Celtics ML +140 (DK)

O.G Anunoby O.5 steals -160 (DK)

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Sara Jane Gamelli is a full-time Sportswriter at Ballislife, and Sports Content Creator on Twitch and TikTok. She has a focus on the NBA, WNBA, NCAA Basketball, and the NFL. Sara Jane currently resides in Connecticut/NYC area with her Cat and Dog. SJ has her undergraduate degree from the University of Connecticut in Economics, with a minor in business administration.

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