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NBA betting: favorite player props for Jan. 29

Sara Jane Gamelli 11109 January 29, 2024 No Comments

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Sara Jane Gamelli

There is a huge Monday night NBA slate, including 12 games on the schedule. Starting at 7 p.m. and 10 p.m. ET, there are several key matchups. With some sort of a rivalry brewing, the Los Angeles Lakers (24-34, 7-15 away) will face off against the Houston Rockets (21-24, 16-8 home) on the road. Two top teams in their respective conferences, the Denver Nuggets (32-15,18-4 home) will host the Milwaukee Bucks (32-14, 11-9) at home. Tonight, Doc Rivers will make his coaching debut with Milwaukee. For Brooklyn, Ben Simmons will make his long-awaited return tonight from injury,

I have three player props for today. For my picks, I took them all as straight bets, no more than 1 u on each. Here you will find the NBA betting odds, stats, trends, player prop bets, and predictions for Monday, Jan. 29.

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Odds are current as of Jan. 25, at 1 p.m. ET
SJ's NBA Player Prop record this season: 20-16-1: +12 units

NBA Bet #1: Deni Avdija O .5 3PTM (-166) DK

Season Stats PPG: 12.4 | FG: 50.1 % | 3 PT: 37.8 % | FT: 76.7 % | REB: 6.1 | AST: 3.9 | STL: 0.8 | BLK: 0.4

Tonight, the Washington Wizards (8-37, 5-19 away) will face the San Antonio Spurs (10-36, 5-17 home) on the road. If there's one prop I love, it's Wizards wingman Deni Avdija to have over one three-pointer made in this matchup.

If you're betting on the NBA, there's a lot to love about this prop. Hitting the over in three straight games, Avdija has six shots from deep in the last three games. In addition, he's hit this prop 69 percent this season, and 80 % of the last ten. No. 9 is coming off 10-point performance vs. the Pistons, in which he shot 1-1 (100 percent) from the three-point line.

Now in his fourth season with Washington, the forward is averaging career-highs in points (12.4), free-throw percentage (76.7 %), three-point percentage (37.8 %), field goal percentage (50.1 %), minutes played (27.4), and field goal attempts.

Two of the worst teams in the NBA, the Spurs rank 26th in opponent points (121.4) allowed per game. Terrible defensively along the perimeter, they allow the 27th worst three-point percentage (38.8 %), and three-point attempts (13.9). Over the last few weeks, Washington allowed forwards Jalen Williams, Avdija, Corey Kispert, Miles Bridges, Cody martin, Brandon Miller, Jayson Tatum, Sam Hauser, and DeMar DeRozan to all hit over on treys.

Statistics courtesy of Props.Cash

With a prop rate of 100 percent against San Antonio in the last three matchups, Avdija poured in 16 points against them this season. In 32 minutes played, the wingman shot 1-3 (33.3 %) from downtown. Nine days later, he'll get a shot to hit over his prop line again.

The Spurs are coming off impressive back-to-back victories over the Portland Trail Blazers and the Minnesota Timberwolves. However, they allowed Minnesota to shoot 53.8 percent from downtown, including Anthony Edwards with 32 points.

Hitting the over in 12 of the last 15 games, Avdija has maintained steady numbers on the road. In 24 away games, he's averaging 12.1 points, on 31.5 percent three-point shooting. Although the Wizards are 2-8 in their last ten games, Avdija has been hot as of late. Over the last ten games, he's averaging 14.5 points, 28.8 minutes, and 50 percent three-point shooting. A durable player night in and night out, I love this prop tonight.

I also love this prop for a few reasons, he's averaging his career-best in several statistical shooting categories. This prop has a 63 percent hit rate when he played 26.8 minutes, which he's exceed this month. Averaging 2.3 three-point attempts over the last five games, the forward is shooting 93 percent from deep over the last three games against Detroit, Utah, and Minnesota. I love his steady minutes, combined with his shot volume, and prime matchup tonight.

In five career matchups against San Antonio, he's averaging 3.4 treys per game, on 50 percent three-point shooting.

NBA Bet #2: Victor Wembanyama O 3.5 Steals and Blocks (-175) DK

Season Stats PPG: 20.5 | FG: 46.5 % | 3 PT: 30.5 % | FT: 80 % | REB: 10.1 | AST: 3.1 | STL: 1.1 | BLK: 3.1

Victor Wembanyama continues to show why he was selected first overall in the 2023 NBA Draft. Although he's still developing under coach Greg Popovich, the French sensation has been incredible on the defensive end. Averaging 3.1 blocks on the season, he has a great matchup against the Wizards tonight.

If you're betting on the NBA, I have Spurs center Victor Wembanyama to have over 3.5 steals and blocks combined. He faces a Washington offense, who allow the 24th most blocks in the NBA (5.6). In addition, they allow the 20th most steals (7.7) in the league. With Gafford listed as 6'10, Wemby should have plenty of defensive looks tonight.

Hitting the over in three straight games, Wembanyama has a total of 13 steals and blocks over the last three games against Minnesota, Portland, and OKC. Off one day's rest, there shouldn't have any minute restrictions. An 80 percent hit rate in the last 10 home games, the center has been an absolute sensation. Over the last 13 games at home, he's missed the under on this prop in only two games.

Statistics courtesy of Props.Cash

Coming off a 23 point, two block and two steal performance against the Timberwolves, Wemby has dominated the Wizards this season. In one game against Washington, he poured in 24 points, six blocks, and four assists. For a player that averages 3.1 blocks a game, this prop seems a low to me, especially given the matchup.

Speaking of matchup, the Wizards shoot the 5th highest percent of their shots in the restricted area (28.5 %). In addition, 18.8 percent of their shots come inside the paint, which is also top five in the NBA. Based off this alone, along with his previous matchup, Wemby should see plenty of action.

Hitting the over in five of eight games, Wembanyama is coming off one day's rest. Having rest days makes all the difference in the world, especially with home games. Off one day of rest, this prop has a hit rate of 70 percent in the last 10 games, Futhermore, he's had at least 3.5 steals and blocks in 10 of the last 13 matchups. I love this prop even more that he doesn't have any further minute restrictions from a prior injury.

With a colossal viral block over Portland, Wemby leads the NBA in blocks per game, and is top 45th in steals per game. At 7'4, he's nowhere near his prime or the height of potential. A steal in 68 percent of games this year, I look forward to watching him dominate on the defensive end tonight. There's not one starter, including Gafford, that comes close to the height of Wembanyama.

NBA Bet #3: Collin Sexton O 24.5 Points and Assists (-175) DK

Season Stats PPG: 17.5 | FG: 48.9 % | 3 PT: 38.2 % | FT: 87.9 % | REB: 2.7 | AST: 4.3 | STL: 0.7 | BLK: 0.2

(Photo by Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images)

If there's any player that's been trending up, it's Utah Jazz guard Collin Sexton. Now in his second season with the Jazz, he's averaging solid numbers, both in scoring and facilitating. Limited by injuries in years past, Sexton is healthy on the season, logging in 47 games played. The winners of two straight games, Sexton has once again found himself in the starting lineup, next to Kris Dunn. He's become a legitimate scoring threat on this team.

If you're betting on the NBA, I like Sexton over 24.5 points and assists. Hitting the over in four of the last five, Collin's been on fire. Coming off a double-double performance against the Hornets, Sexton had his career high assists with 13. Fueling the Jazz after a slow start, he's really found his groove with Utah.

If you haven't watched him play, Sexton is an extremely athletic guard, who possess speed when driving to the rim. Tonight, he faces a Brooklyn Nets team, who are just 3-7 in their last ten games. In fact, Brooklyn allows the 16th most points per game (114.9), and 25th worst three-point percentage (34.1). Although the Nets have done a decent job shutting down passing lanes this season, that's hasn't been the case for Sexton.

Statistics courtesy of Props.Cash

Dating back to Jan. 2023, the Jazz guard hit this prop 50 percent in two games played against Brooklyn. Ben Simmons is due to make his return tonight, however it is unknown if he will be on a minute restriction. If he plays a hefty number of minutes, he could be a defensive stopper against Sexton.

This season, Sexton has completely obliterated the Nets. In one matchup, he put up 27 points and six assists, on 42.9 percent three-point shooting. Over the last 10 games, he's been throwing it down over multiple defenders, attacking the rim, and hitting from outside. Over the stretch, No. 2 is averaging 23.4 points on 51 percent three-point shooting, and six dimes.

What makes this bet slightly risky has been his dip in numbers on the road. In 26 road games, the guard is averaging just 16.4 points and 4.4 assists, on 36.2 percent three-point shooting. Sure, those numbers are down, however, he's picked up production since the middle of December.

Picking up steam, he's hit the over in four of the last away games. While James Harden and Anthony Edwards are the only two guards to hit over this prop number, I'm confident in Sexton tonight. I love this prop especially since Sexton is averaging almost 22 points in January, and 20 points in 10 of the last 15 games. Coming off a career high 13 assists, I trust his ability to find the open man, and dominate in scoring against a Brooklyn team that ranks 25th against guards.

Coming off a 19-field goal attempt performance, Sexton is becoming a staple of this up-and-coming Jazz team. Whether or not he's being discussed in trade talks, No. 2 is averaging 17.6 shot attempts, and 7.2 assists in the last five games.

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Sara Jane Gamelli is a full-time Sportswriter, Content Creator and Social Media Manager for Ballislife Bets. She has a focus on the NBA, WNBA, NCAA Basketball, and the NFL. Sara Jane currently resides in Connecticut/NYC area with her Cat and Dog. SJ has her undergraduate degree from the University of Connecticut in Economics, with a minor in business administration.

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