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Sun vs. Lynx Betting Odds & Predictions: WNBA Playoffs Game 3

Sara Jane Gamelli 5812 September 20, 2023 No Comments

The Connecticut Sun will matchup against the Minnesota Lynx on the road for game 3. After tonight's matchup, one of these teams will be eliminated from the playoffs. Here, you will find the WNBA betting odds, stats, trends, player prop bets, and predictions for Wednesday, Sept. 20.

Written and edited by

Sara Jane Gamelli

One team will be eliminated from the playoffs tonight

Tonight, is game three of the first-round WNBA playoffs between the Connecticut Sun (1-1, 1-1 Home) and the Minnesota Lynx (1-1, 1-1 Away).  After sealing a game one victory, the Lynx defeated the Sun 82-75 on the road. In a low scoring affair, Minnesota had 54 combined points from Napheesa Collier and Kayla McBride. For the Sun, DeWanna Bonner and Alyssa Thomas collectively scored 50 points. Once down by sixteen points in the third quarter, Connecticut was able to capitalize off turnovers and narrow the deficit to two points in the fourth. Through 40 minutes, the Lynx dominated on the rebounds, and scoring in the paint.

Connecticut couldn't get the stops they needed in the third quarter, which gave Minnesota a majority of the momentum. Kayla McBride had seven points alone, including two looks in the paint. Collier made a statement in the first ten minutes, with 10 points. As the Sun chipped away, Collier drained a two-point shot with 2:12 to go in final regulation. Under two minutes, Connecticut was unable to exploit the opposing defense, and missed a key three-point jumper and a driving layup. In a playoff format like the first round, there's zero room for error, and we saw that with the Sun.

 In this article, I will break down the WNBA betting odds, statistics, trends, odds, player prop bets, and predictions. The matchup will begin at 8 p.m. ET, at Target Center, located in Minneapolis, Minnesota.  If you're Betting on the WNBA and interested in watching, the game will air on ESPN. For the best betting odds, stats and analysis, here is information to know.

WNBA Odds Game 3: Connecticut Sun vs. Minnesota Lynx

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Alyssa Thomas O 24.5 Points & Assists

Alyssa Thomas O 14.5 Field Goal Attempts

Season Stats: PPG: 15.5 | FG: 47.4 % | 3 PT: 0 % | FT: 71.5 % | REB: 9.9 | AST: 7.9 |STL: 1.8 | BLK: 0.5

Playoff Stats: PPG: 20.5 | FG: 51.5 % | 3 PT: 0 % | FT: 63.6 % | REB: 5.5 | AST: 8 |STL: 3 | BLK: 1

If there's one player prop bet I'm confident in, it's Alyssa Thomas over points and assists. A current MVP candidate, Thomas had 26 points, and 6 assists, on 10-18 shooting, in Game two against Minnesota. Over the course of the playoffs, the Suns point forward averages over 20 points a game, and nearly six assists per game. In game one, No. 25 put up an impressive stat line, with another double-double. Through 37 minutes, Thomas added 15 points, and 10 assists on 7-15 field goal shooting. The Sun will now face the Lynx on the road, in a critical game three.

Over 24.5 points and assists hit in the first two playoff games for Thomas, and three of the last five matchups. In the month of August, Thomas hit this prop seven of eleven games. In four regular season matchups against the Lynx, the prop hit three of the four games. Thomas averaged 17.3 points, 36.6 minutes, and 10.3 assists in four games against the Lynx this year. On the road against Minnesota, No. 25 averaged 15.5 points, 34.2 minutes, and 9 assists. It's important to note, Alyssa Thomas shot 48 percent from the field, which is three percent more on the road. Last matchup, Thomas played a full 40 minutes, in which she had 18 field goal attempts. I expect her to be on the court until the very last second tonight, win or lose.

Why over points and assists will hit

In a possible elimination game, Alyssa Thomas will have the ball in her hands tonight. Last game, we saw her take control when the Sun were down points, in which the forward trekked to the free-throw line seven times. Over the course of the season, Thomas has performed consistently well against Minnesota. She had back-to-back triple doubles, a first in WNBA history, and will face a Lynx team who ranked 10th in defensive rating. Given Thomas loves driving to the hoop, the Lynx allowed the 8th most points in the paint this year (36.7).

In 40 regular season games, the All-Star averaged 15.6 points and 7.4 assists on the road. Her field goal percentage is higher on the road, along with free-throw attempts. With eight teams in the playoffs, Minnesota has the 5th worst defensive rating (107.8) and is allowing the Sun to shoot 45 percent through two matchups. She will most likely be matchup up with Napheesa Collier, who ranked in the bottom 113 in defensive rating (103.7). With Jessica Shepard out with an injury, Dorka Juhasz will have the task of guarding both Thomas and Bonner as a rookie.

In a critical game such as tonight's matchup, the ball will absolutely be in the hands of Alyssa Thomas. Not a stranger to elimination games, No. 25 thrives for these types of moments. I can't think of another player to trust in a must win game, who has several skill sets. Hiedeman, Allen, and Hayes all must step up besides Thomas and Bonner.

Why over field goal attempts will hit

With Connecticut's offensive primarily flowing through Alyssa Thomas at the point forward position, No. 25 is averaging 38.4 minutes and 16.5 field goal attempts through two playoff matchups against Minnesota. On the road, Thomas averaged only 12.5 field goal attempts on the road. That's been a different story against the Minnesota Lynx. Thomas averaged 14.5 field goal attempts in four matchups, and with elimination on the line, I expect Thomas to hit this prop, especially with the high volume of minutes played. Given she isn't a three-point threat, I expect her to find her way to the basket, especially given Minnesota was the 8th worst team against points in the paint.

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Connecticut Money Line (-235)

The Minnesota Lynx forced a game three after their defeat over the Sun. Overall, Connecticut is 14-6 on the road, and the Lynx are under .500 at 9-11 at home. Even though the Sun performed inferior on the road, they had stronger numbers at the Target Center.

Despite dropping game two against Minnesota, Connecticut won the regular season series 3-1, and two of those victories came in Minneapolis. In two away games against the Lynx, the Sun averaged 89 points, 34.5 rebounds, 20.5 assists, and 39.6 percent from three. In matchups at home against Minnesota, the Sun only averaged 81 points, 33 rebounds, and 18.9 percent from the three. Yes, you read that correctly, Connecticut shot over 20 percent more efficiently from the three on Minnesota's home court.

Despite the injury to Brionna Jones, Connecticut formulated a plan and were the No. 3 seed in the WNBA. Coach of the year, Stephanie White led the Sun to 27 wins, in which they finished a top defensive team. The playoffs are completely different, and the Sun will have a tough matchup on the road, regardless of their statistics. Minnesota has key pieces around Collier and McBride, including Diamond Miller and Dorka Juhasz.

With the Connecticut Sun one year removed from the WNBA finals, I have full confidence they will win this game outright. With the season on the line, the offensive and defense will flow through Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner tonight. Connecticut was the 5th best in terms of clutch rating this season. The playoffs are all about who's peaking at the right time, and this should be a competitive matchup tonight. If Connecticut can defeat the Lynx on the rebounds, Minnesota was ranked the worst team against opponent second chance points per game (12.3).

Season Statistics & Betting Trends

Connecticut Sun

  • CT Sun: 3-2 in their last 5 games.
  • 6-4 in their last 10 games.
  • ATS Record: 21-17-2
  • O/U Record: 22-18-0
  • 3-2 ATS in their last 5 games.
  • 5-4-1 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • O/U is 1-4 in the last 5 games.
  • O/U: 4-6 in the last 10 games.
  • 4th in Offensive Rating (103.2)
  • 4th in Offensive Rating in the playoffs (107.8)
  • 2nd in Defensive Rating (98.8)
  • 3rd in Defensive Rating in the playoffs (92.8)
  • 4th in Points Per Game (82.7)
  • 10th in Pace: 95.14
  • Opponent Points Per Game: 79 (1st)
  • Three-Point Percentage: 36% (4th)
  • Three-Point Percentage playoffs: 46% (1st)
  • Rebounds Per Game: 33.6 (8th)
  • Rebounds Per Game playoffs: 33 (7th)
  • Connecticut ATS won last 10 games: Chicago (-5.5), New York (+6), LA (-6.5, -10.5), Indiana (-10), Minnesota (-8.5)

Minnesota Lynx

  • Minnesota Lynx: 2-3 in their last 5 games.
  • 5-5 in their last 10 games.
  • ATS Record: 21-18-1
  • O/U Record: 23-17-0
  • 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games.
  • 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • O/U is 2-3 in the last 5 games.
  • O/U:6-4 in the last 10 games.
  • 8th in Offensive Rating (99.8)
  • 6th in Offensive Rating in the playoffs (92.8)
  • 10th in Defensive Rating (105.7)
  • 6th in Defensive Rating in the playoffs (95)
  • 8th in Points Per Game (80.2)
  • 5th in Defensive Rating in the playoffs (107.8)
  • 9th in Pace: 95.84
  • Opponent Points Per Game: 85 (11th)
  • Three-Point Percentage: 32.5 (11th)
  • Three-Point Percentage playoffs: 28.6 (5th)
  • Rebounds Per Game: 34.3 (6th)
  • Rebounds Per Game playoffs: 33.5 (6th)
  • Minnesota: ATS won last 10 games:  Seattle (-2), Dallas (+6, +6.5), Atlanta (-1.5), Phoenix (-8.5), New York (+9)

Head-to-head stats: Sun vs. Lynx

Season Matchups:

Game 1: Connecticut 89, Minnesota 84 (Minnesota +6, over 159.5)
Game 2: Connecticut 89, Minnesota 68 (Connecticut -4, under 158)
Game 3: Minnesota 87, Connecticut 83 (Minnesota +12.5, over 161)
Game 4: Connecticut 79, Minnesota 69 (Minnesota +11.5, under 164)

Playoffs

Game 1: Connecticut 90, Minnesota 60 (Connecticut -8.5, under 159.5)
Game 2: Minnesota 82, Connecticut 75 (Minnesota +9, under 159)

  • Connecticut won the series 3-1
  • The Lynx are 3-1 ATS vs. the Sun this season.
  • Game Points (AVG) last 10 matchups: 157
  • Connecticut average points last 10 games: 80.5
  • Minnesota average points last 10 games: 80

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Sara Jane Gamelli is a full-time Sportswriter at BallisLife, and Sports Content Creator on Twitch and TikTok. She has a focus on the NBA, WNBA, NCAA Basketball, and the NFL. Sara Jane currently resides in Connecticut with her Cat and Dog. SJ has her undergraduate degree from the University of Connecticut in Economics, with a minor in business administration.

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