Liberty vs. Aces Odds & Predictions: WNBA Finals Game 2

Tonight, The New York Liberty will matchup against the Las Vegas Aces on the road for game two of the WNBA Finals. The Aces defeated the Liberty 99-82, led by Aces guards Kelsey Plum and Jackie Young with 26 points. Here you will find the WNBA betting odds, statistics, trends, and predictions for Wednesday, October 11.

WNBA Finals Odds Game 2: New York Liberty @ Las Vegas Aces

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

2023 WNBA Championship Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

WNBA Finals Schedule

Game 2: Wed, Oct 11: New York Liberty @ Las Vegas Aces, 9 p.m. EDT, ESPN
Game 3: Sun, Oct 15: Las Vegas Aces @ New York Liberty, 3 p.m. EDT, ABC
Game 4 *: Wed, Oct 18: Las Vegas Aces @ New York Liberty, 8 p.m. EDT, ESPN
Game 5 *: Fri, Oct 20: New York Liberty @ Las Vegas Aces, 9 p.m. EDT, ESPN

*If necessary

The Aces strike first

October 8, 2023; The New York Liberty fall to The Las Vegas Aces 99-82 in Game 1 of the 2023 WNBA Finals at Michelob Ultra Arena. (Brandon Todd/New York Liberty)

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The first half of game one of the WNBA Finals was an absolutely dog fight. The New York Liberty outscored the Las Vegas Aces 25-22 in the first quarter, and commanded a three point lead at half time. On a 15-6 run in the first, the Liberty controlled the rebounds, along with points in the paint. For New York, Jonquel Jones scored 12 first half points, along with nine rebounds. Marine Johannès, an unlikely hero, scored 14 first half points on 4-5(80 percent) three-point shooting. Jones and Sabrina Ionescu were limited to just 7 points combined in the half, in which New York shot 11 percent from three. Ionescu played extremely well against Vegas all season, and is a vital factor on the offensive for New York. Johannes hasn't had a large role in the postseason, however she plays incredible agains the Aces.

New York kept things close through the first half

The Las Vegas Aces only gained momentum as time passed, in which they outscored the Liberty 26-16 in the third quarter. Led by Jackie Young with 12 points, Las Vegas stayed discliplined on the rebounds and defense. Not one Liberty player scored in double figures, nor did the team have one made three pointer. While the Aces shot 60 percent from the field, and over 40 percent from long range, the Liberty struggled. After three lead changes, Las Vegas took their energy into the final quarter.

In the second half, the Aces outscored the Liberty 53-33, in which New York couldn't answer on the defensive end. Vegas out rebounded their opposition 19-13, and controlled paint points, 24-12. In the third and fourth quarters, Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray, and Kelsey Plum combined for 38 points, 4 steals, 9 assists, and 9 rebounds. With black jersey's surrounding the basket, Vegas did an excellent job of securing the defensive rebounds, and capitalized on offense. The Aces did an excellent job gathering the fouls at the rim, finishing 11-13 at the free-throw line second half. Overall, Young and Plum simply couldn't be stopped in the paint.

The Aces shined in game one

Game one was an all around dominant game by the Aces. In an offensive showing, Chelsea Gray, Kelsey Plum, and Jackie Young combined for 72 total points. Their core four, which includes A'ja Wilson, scored 91 points total on 32-58 (55 percent) field goal shooting. Former No. 1 overall pick Kelsey Plum attempted 19 shots, which is higher than her norm. In the regular season, Plum, Gray and Young averaged a combined 48.9 points, more than 23 points less than game one.

The Liberty couldn't find their flow of their offense through the second half, and struggled immensely on defense. With Breanna Stewart leading the way with 21 points, Betnijah Laney and Sabrina Ionescu were held to a combined 18 points. All five of New York's starters were negative +/- on the court, and Jonquel Jones was again limited to second half points. For a team that captured the best win loss record post All-Star Break, New York looked unrecognizable on both sides of the ball. It will be crucial for New York to involve Laney, as well as Sabrina, two core players of this team.

Where and how to watch the game

In this article, I will break down the WNBA betting odds, statistics, trends, odds, player prop bets, and predictions. The matchup will begin at 9 p.m. ET, at Michelob ULTRA Arena, located in Las Vegas, Nevada. If you're betting on the WNBA and interested in watching, the game will air on ESPN.  For the best betting odds, stats and analysis, here is information to know.

Liberty +5 (-110)

Similar to game one, the New York Liberty are the underdogs by five points. They will matchup against the Las Vegas Aces, who once again have home court advantage for game two. Aces -5.5 is a strong play, along with the outright money line. New York has never lost consecutive games in a row, and I expect this game to be a lot closer of a matchup. With a majority of the public betting on the Aces money line, it's hard to fade that, especially with their recent game play.

New York is 3-2 against the spread against Vegas in their last five games, and the spread is split 5-5 over the last ten. There are a combined 32 all-star selections among both teams. Therefore, it'a hard to imagine another blow out for the Aces. New York has plenty of talent and depth to keep up the Vegas, now they just need to excecute tonight.

New York won the Commisioner's Cup in Vegas

The Liberty are excellent executing out the gate, and are notorious for losing leads in the second half of games. Let's face it, both teams were at the top in several statistical categories with the best win/loss records. With the Aces undefeated in their last ten, and the Liberty 1-4 against the spread, I could see why the public is highly in favor of Las Vegas.

Statistics aside, New York won the Commissioners Cup on the road against Vegas, and covered the +7.5 spread. For New York, it's doable, and here's the reason why. Over five regular season matchups, including the Cup, New York has a 36 point differential lead over the Aces. Divide that by five games, thats an average seven points per game. In four matchups excluding the Cup, the Liberty still hold a 24 point differential over Vegas. Over four games, that an average of six points.

Why the Liberty will cover the spread

With the Aces undefeated, the Liberty were tested in their previous matchups between Connecticut and Washington. Although tonight won't be an easy task, New York and Las Vegas finished the regular season and the top two teams in offensive and defense rating. In four season matchups, New York averaged 87.3 points on 38.7 percent three point shooting. Having led the Aces in rebounds, controlling the boards, tempo, and inside scoring will be key tonight.

The Liberty were 6-1 on the season, and 1-0 in the playoffs off two days rest. Statistically, the Liberty have performed their best based on two days of rest. In that time span, New York is averaging 92 points on 50 percent field goal shooting in the playoffs. Much to their advantage, the Aces have performed their worst off two days rest this postseason. Vegas only averages 75.5 points on 40 percent field goal shooting. Only 2-5 against the spread this postseason, the Liberty are due to cover here. Never been the underdogs in back to back games, New York will look to even up the series tonight.

Season Statistics & Betting Trends

Las Vegas Aces

  • LV Aces: 5-0 in their last 5 games.
  • 10-0 in their last 10 games.
  • ATS Record: 21-19-0
  • O/U Record: 24-16-0
  • 3-2 ATS in their last 5 games.
  • 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • O/U is 2-2-1 in the last 5 games.
  • O/U: 5-4-1 in the last 10 games.
  • 1st in Offensive Rating (113)
  • 3rd in Offensive Rating in the Playoffs (109.7)
  • 1st in Defensive Rating (97.7)
  • 1st in Defensive Rating in the Playoffs (90.5)
  • 1st in Points Per Game (92.8)
  • 2nd in Pace: 98.58
  • Opponent Points Per Game: 80.3 (2nd)
  • Three-Point Percentage: 37.2 % (2nd)
  • Three-Point Percentage in the Playoffs: 36.6 % (3rd)
  • Rebounds Per Game: 34.8 (5th)
  • Rebounds Per Game in the Playoffs: 38.8(2nd)
  • LV ATS won last 10 games: Seattle (-20), Phoenix (-19), Chicago (-16, -17.5), Dallas (-10), New York (-4.5)

New York Liberty

  • New York Liberty: 3-2 in their last 5 games.
  • 7-3 in their last 10 games.
  • ATS Record: 19-21-0
  • O/U Record: 23-17-0
  • 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games.
  • 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • O/U is 4-1 in the last 5 games.
  • O/U: 9-1 in the last 10 games.
  • 2nd in Offensive Rating (109.6)
  • 3rd in Offensive Rating in the playoffs (106.7)
  • 3rd in Defensive Rating (99.4)
  • 4th in Defensive Rating in the playoffs (104.9)
  • 2nd in Points Per Game (89.2)
  • 5th in Pace: 96.56
  • Opponent Points Per Game: 80.6 (4th)
  • Three-Point Percentage: 37.4 (1st)
  • Three-Point Percentage playoffs: 33.2% (5th)
  • Rebounds Per Game: 37.9 (2nd)
  • Rebounds Per Game playoffs: 36.9 (5th)
  • New York ATS won last 10 games: Washington (-9.5), Connecticut (-4)

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Sara Jane Gamelli is a full-time Sportswriter at Ballislife, and Sports Content Creator on Twitch and TikTok. She has a focus on the NBA, WNBA, NCAA Basketball, and the NFL. Sara Jane currently resides in Connecticut/NYC area with her Cat and Dog. SJ has her undergraduate degree from the University of Connecticut in Economics, with a minor in business administration.


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